AFRICA · SOUTH AFRICA
Thabo Mbeki, South Africa’s president from 1999 to 2008, has told the African National Congress (ANC) to put its own survival ahead of governing every city. He spoke in a podcast interview on Monday 9 November 2026, days after the 4 November local elections.
The ANC, which has led South Africa since 1994, won about 31% of the vote, down from 45.59% in 2021. Who runs South Africa’s big cities decides water, power and business conditions, which matters to US investors there.
Key Facts
- Who Thabo Mbeki, South Africa’s president from 1999 to 2008, urged the ANC to put its survival first.
- What He said the ANC should accept opposition benches where it is weak, and finally renew itself.
- Numbers The ANC took about 31% on 4 November, down from 45.59% in 2021; turnout was 52%.
- Next The ANC’s leadership body between conferences, the National Executive Committee (NEC), was due to meet in the coming week to set coalition strategy.
- Prediction markets Polymarket, a real-money prediction market, gives Helen Zille, a veteran politician of the Democratic Alliance (DA), about 59% to be Johannesburg’s next mayor (5:27 a.m. ET, 10 November).
Mbeki Tells the ANC to Look After Itself
Mbeki said the result “liberates the ANC to a very good extent from the task of governing.” He asked why the party does not then turn to the question of its own survival.
Where the ANC lacks the support to lead, he said, it should consider opposition benches rather than govern at any cost. He cited the metros (big city councils) of Gauteng, the province that holds Johannesburg and Pretoria, as places where it could step aside and let other parties negotiate.
Where the ANC won the most votes, he said, it should respect voters’ choices and help form governments. He also urged the party to carry out its long-promised organisational renewal.
A Long Slide in Support
The Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC), which runs the country’s elections, declared the vote free and fair on Sunday 8 November 2026. It put the ANC’s share at about 31% and a national turnout of 52%, up from 45.9% in 2021, as set out in our earlier report on the election result.
Mbeki estimated that only about 10% of eligible adults voted ANC. He said support was about 70% of votes cast in 2004, about 40% in 2024 and about 30% in 2026.
He said the party’s own internal polling had projected about 28%. “That’s a disaster the ANC must deal with and deal with honestly,” he said.
Mbeki pointed to poor service delivery and to how some leaders are seen. “Some of your leaders are your problem,” he said.
Renewal Promised but Not Delivered
Mbeki said the ANC’s 2017 conference called renewal essential to survival and told the NEC to act. The 2022 conference reaffirmed it, he said, but little progress followed.
He cited a renewal proposal from the party’s Veterans League, a group of long-serving members, sent in before the 2022 conference. He said it was not acted on: “That document is still sitting in the office of the secretary-general, the party’s chief administrator.”
Mbeki on Ramaphosa and the Coalition Clock
Mbeki said that if reports that President Cyril Ramaphosa is considering stepping down are true, resigning would be right. Those reports remain unconfirmed.
Fikile Mbalula, the ANC secretary-general, denied the resignation reports. Whether the ANC follows Mbeki’s advice should become clear in the coming weeks.
At the results announcement on Sunday 8 November, President Cyril Ramaphosa urged parties to put communities first. The IEC says 127 of 213 councils are hung, meaning no party holds a majority, so coalitions are needed.
After the count, each council must choose its mayor and speaker. The ANC leads the Government of National Unity, a multi-party national government formed after the 2024 election, with the DA as its biggest partner, as our guide to who holds power in South Africa explains.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a real-money prediction market, gives Helen Zille, a veteran politician of the DA, the ANC’s biggest partner in national government, about 59% to be Johannesburg’s next mayor, with US$154,519 traded across the market as of 5:27 a.m. ET on Tuesday 10 November 2026. The other candidates on the list trail far behind her.
These prices are bets, not polls, and they can move quickly. They do not show whether the ANC will follow Mbeki’s advice.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
Who runs the Johannesburg and Tshwane (Pretoria) metros decides water, power and business conditions. The NEC meeting and the first mayoral votes are the next tests.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether the NEC will adopt Mbeki’s opposition-bench idea. Nor is it known whether Ramaphosa will respond.
Which coalitions will form in the Gauteng metros is still open. The resignation reports remain unconfirmed, and the ANC denies them.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Thabo Mbeki tell the ANC?
He urged the ANC to put its own survival first, even at the cost of municipal governing posts. He said it should consider opposition benches where it lacks the support to lead.
How did the ANC do in the 2026 local elections?
The ANC won about 31% of the vote on 4 November, down from 45.59% in 2021. National turnout was 52%, and the Electoral Commission declared the elections free and fair.
Is Cyril Ramaphosa resigning?
No resignation has been confirmed. Mbeki said stepping down would be right if the reports are true, while Fikile Mbalula, the ANC secretary-general, denied them.
Who might be Johannesburg’s next mayor?
Polymarket, a real-money prediction market, gave Helen Zille about 59% as of 5:27 a.m. ET on 10 November 2026. These prices are bets, not polls or official results.
Sources: Mbeki podcast interview, 9 November 2026; Electoral Commission of South Africa, declaration of results, 8 November 2026; statements by ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula; Polymarket market on the next mayor of Johannesburg (https://polymarket.com/event/next-mayor-of-johannesburg-20260609220245506), read 10 November 2026.
More: South Africa news in English and Africa’s new scramble for influence.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error