Peso Steadies As Dollar Softens; Mexico’s Stocks Hold Their Rebound

Mexico’s peso is little changed around 18.45–18.50 per dollar on Thursday morning, after a quiet night that left the U.S. Dollar Index near 100.

The calm follows a stronger Wednesday for local equities: the S&P/BMV IPC closed at 61,637, up 1.4%, extending a measured October rebound.

The story behind the story is straightforward. Globally, the dollar has eased from recent peaks as investors lean toward gentler U.S. policy next year and headline risk has cooled.

Locally, Mexico’s backdrop is steady rather than spectacular: inflation is drifting lower but still above target, and Banxico has signaled it won’t rush rate cuts.

That combination—softer dollar abroad, cautious central bank at home—has taken the urgency out of selling the peso and given domestic shares room to climb.

Technically, USD/MXN remains a range trade. On the 4-hour chart, the pair keeps failing near 18.55–18.60, with momentum fading and RSI around neutral; support sits at 18.40–18.43, then 18.30.

On the daily chart, price is still below a falling 200-day average and a thinning cloud, MACD is flat, and the Bollinger mid-band hugs spot—signals that rallies are likely to meet supply unless the dollar breaks higher.

In plain terms: the path of least resistance is sideways to slightly stronger MXN until a bigger global catalyst hits. Equities look a touch sturdier than FX.

The IPC’s daily trend remains constructive above a rising 200-day line, and the index bounced smartly from the 61,000 area.

On 4-hour frames, momentum is turning up; resistance comes in near 61,800–62,000, with support at 61,100 and then 60,900. Continued dollar softness and stable U.S. yields would help that push; a renewed dollar spike would likely cap it.

For readers outside Mexico, the takeaway is this: Mexico is benefiting from a more forgiving global dollar and a domestic central bank that prizes stability.

That mix doesn’t produce fireworks, but it does favor selective equity gains and a peso that holds its ground—at least until the next global data print or policy surprise resets the dial.