Peru’s Fujimori Falls 18 Points as El Niño Threatens Economy
Key Facts
Peru had eight presidents in the decade before 2026, and its new leader won by a whisker. Less than two months in, Keiko Fujimori’s approval is sinking as a severe El Nino threatens the economy.
Keiko Fujimori, Peru’s president since 28 July, saw her approval fall 18 points in a month, pollster Datum reported on 18 September. The same day her transport minister resigned and the central bank cut its growth forecast.
Why This Matters Beyond Peru
Peru is a major fishmeal exporter whose politics have been unusually unstable. Before the 2026 vote, the Council on Foreign Relations counted eight presidents in about a decade.
Many were removed by Congress, often on grounds of permanent moral incapacity, a vague constitutional clause. Keiko Fujimori, daughter of Alberto Fujimori, president from 1990 to 2000, lost three runoffs before 2026.
She won this June’s runoff with 50.1 percent against leftist Roberto Sanchez, the official count showed. Her margin was 49,641 votes out of more than 18 million, La Republica reported.
A president elected that narrowly has little goodwill to spare, which is why early polls matter. The first month now shows disapproval above approval in three separate surveys.
At the same time, the central bank expects an unusually strong El Nino, a warming of Pacific coastal waters. Peru’s anchovy fishery, which feeds fish farms worldwide through fishmeal, is the largest of its kind by volume.
In 2023, a year of climate anomalies, unrest and bird flu, Peru’s economy shrank 0.55 percent. ComexPeru, a trade association, called that the worst result since 1998 outside the pandemic.
An 18-Point Drop in the First Month
Datum Internacional, a Lima polling firm, measured Fujimori’s approval at 42 percent in September. Its August reading had been 60 percent.
Disapproval rose from 24 percent to 44 percent over the same period. That leaves more Peruvians disapproving than approving, by two points.
Datum interviewed 1,204 people between 11 and 15 September, according to Infobae. The survey was face to face, nationwide, and covered adults aged 18 to 70.
Datum gave a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. The poll was carried out for the Peruvian broadcaster America TV.
Where the Support Went
The decline was not even across the country, La Republica reported from the Datum data. Approval held at 51 percent in Lima and neighbouring Callao, the capital region.
It stood at 40 percent in the north, 39 percent in the east and 32 percent in the centre. In the south it fell to 33 percent, from 44 percent in August.
Among Peruvians aged 18 to 24, approval dropped from 71 percent to 50 percent. Prime Minister Luis Galarreta, who heads the cabinet, scored 31 percent approval and 49 percent disapproval.
Economy Minister Elmer Cuba also scored 31 percent approval, against 43 percent disapproval. Support for letting the executive legislate by decree on set topics fell from 67 percent to 54 percent.
Other Polls Point the Same Way
Datum is not the only pollster recording weak numbers in September. Ipsos, in a survey for the newspaper Peru21, put approval at 42 percent, down from 57 percent.
Its disapproval figure rose from 25 percent to 48 percent, the magazine Caretas reported. The Ipsos sample was 1,176 people, of whom 520 were in Lima.
The Institute of Peruvian Studies, IEP, an independent research centre, measured approval at 37 percent for broadcaster RPP. IEP interviewed 1,202 people from 4 to 10 September, with disapproval at 49 percent.
The three surveys use different questions and samples, so their levels are not directly comparable. All three, however, show approval below disapproval less than two months into the term.
The First Cabinet Departure
Rafael Rey resigned as minister of transport and communications, the prime minister’s office said on 18 September. Forbes Peru reported that his letter to the office was dated the previous day.
Rey wrote that health reasons prevented him from serving with the dedication the post requires. The prime minister’s office publicly thanked him for his work, Gestion reported.
Rey had been in office since 28 July, about 52 days, according to La Republica. His exit is the first from the Galarreta cabinet, before the government’s first 100 days.
Some legislators questioned the explanation, La Republica reported. Victor Pinan of the Obras bloc asked Rey to be candid about the reasons for his resignation.
El Comercio reported on 19 September that sources cited the intense pace of the job as a factor. A political analyst quoted by the paper linked the exit to tension over a Lima commuter train project.
A Replacement Within Hours
Fujimori swore in Jose Angello Tangherlini Casal as the new minister on the evening of 18 September. The ceremony took place at the Government Palace in Lima, Gestion reported.
Tangherlini is an economist trained at the National University of San Marcos. He has worked at the transport and telecoms regulators Ositran and Osiptel, according to Gestion.
Before the appointment he was a vice minister in the agriculture ministry. His portfolio covered family farming and irrigation infrastructure.
ABC Color reported that the transport ministry manages the largest budget in the executive branch. That money goes to infrastructure works, so the post matters to contractors and investors.
The Central Bank Trims Its Outlook
The Central Reserve Bank of Peru, the BCRP, presented its quarterly Inflation Report on 18 September. It lowered its 2026 growth forecast to 3.2 percent, from 3.4 percent in the June report.
The 2027 forecast fell to 3.0 percent, from 3.2 percent. The bank linked both cuts to an expected El Nino of extraordinary magnitude.
It now puts the event’s cost at 0.9 points of 2026 growth, up from 0.7 points. For 2027 the estimated cost rose from 0.9 to 1.1 points, La Republica reported.
Fishing is now forecast to shrink 30.7 percent this year, against 28.3 percent before. Agriculture is seen falling 1.5 percent, where the June report expected growth of 0.3 percent.
Bank president Julio Velarde said the impact on agriculture and fishing was greater than expected. Private investment, by contrast, is now forecast to grow 14 percent, up from 12.5 percent.
Inflation Moves the Other Way
The same report raised the 2026 inflation forecast to 4.2 percent, from 3.8 percent. Infobae reported the bank cited higher public transport fares and fuel prices.
The bank expects inflation to converge on 2.0 percent in 2027, the centre of its target range. It has held its reference rate at 4.25 percent at its recent meetings, Infobae reported.
Velarde said a rate rise was probable if El Nino arrives as the bank expects. He added that it was not mechanical and that the timing still had to be judged, RPP reported.
In March the bank had forecast 2026 growth of 3.2 percent and inflation of 2.4 percent. Growth is therefore back at the March forecast, while expected inflation is 1.8 points higher.
How Peru Classifies an El Nino
Peru’s official El Nino warnings come from ENFEN, a multi-agency scientific commission set up by supreme decree. It tracks sea temperatures off the Peruvian coast, a zone called Nino 1+2.
That coastal event can differ from the Pacific-wide El Nino measured in the Nino 3.4 region. ENFEN grades events by magnitude, from weak and moderate to strong and extraordinary.
Its official communique No. 16-2026, dated 14 September, kept the coastal El Nino alert in place. ENFEN said an extraordinary magnitude was most likely from September 2026 to January 2027.
It expects the event to last until the middle of the southern autumn of 2027. It also forecast much warmer coastal air, possibly at record levels, and heavier northern rain from November.
The warm water pushes anchovy deeper and closer to shore, which is why fishing forecasts fall first. ENFEN said anchovy in the north-central zone would remain deep and near the coast in coming weeks.
A New Congress and a Familiar Banker
Fujimori took office before a Congress that had just been split into two chambers. The Congress, with 60 senators and 130 deputies, was installed on 25 July, ending 33 years with one chamber.
The new Senate ratified Velarde as central bank president until 2031 on 16 September, by 40 votes to 12. The Senate still has to choose three of the bank’s seven board members, Caretas reported.
What It Means If You Live or Invest in Peru
If you live on the northern coast, ENFEN’s forecast points to heavier rain from November. ENFEN urges decision makers to act on current weather warnings and seasonal forecasts.
If you buy food in Peru, the bank expects price pressure from farming and fuel. Its forecast of 4.2 percent inflation this year is above the 2.0 percent it expects for 2027.
If you hold Peruvian bonds or deposits, a rate rise is now openly on the table. Velarde tied that move to how the El Nino develops, not to a date.
If you do business with the transport ministry, a new minister means a new team reviewing projects. Ositran, where Tangherlini worked, supervises transport infrastructure concessions.
What Is Not Yet Known
It is not known whether the approval slide will continue into October. None of the pollsters has yet published a reading taken after Rey’s resignation.
It is also unclear whether Rey’s exit was purely for health reasons, as he stated. No official evidence of any other motive has been published.
The final strength of El Nino cannot be known until the event peaks. ENFEN updates its forecast regularly, and the bank’s numbers could move again in its December report.
The date of any rate rise is also open. Velarde said the bank still had to wait before deciding.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does this matter?
Peru had eight presidents in the decade before 2026, and Fujimori won by under 50,000 votes. Early loss of support, plus an El Nino shock, tests whether her government can hold.
How far has Keiko Fujimori’s approval fallen?
Datum Internacional put it at 42 percent in September, down from 60 percent in August. Disapproval rose to 44 percent.
Why did Peru’s central bank cut its growth forecast?
It expects an extraordinary El Nino to hit fishing and farming harder. It lowered 2026 growth from 3.4 to 3.2 percent.
Who replaced Rafael Rey at the transport ministry?
Jose Angello Tangherlini Casal was sworn in on 18 September. He was previously a vice minister in the agriculture ministry.
Sources: Infobae, Datum poll on Fujimori approval, sample and margin, La Republica, Datum regional breakdown, Caretas, Ipsos poll for Peru21, RPP, IEP poll, Forbes Peru, Rafael Rey resignation, Gestion, Rey resignation and PCM statement, La Republica, congressional reactions to Rey’s exit, El Comercio, behind Rey’s resignation, Gestion, Tangherlini sworn in at the transport ministry, ABC Color, transport ministry budget, La Republica, BCRP cuts 2026 growth to 3.2 percent, Infobae, BCRP raises 2026 inflation forecast to 4.2 percent, RPP, Velarde on a possible rate rise, Forbes Peru, BCRP March 2026 forecasts, ENFEN, official communique No. 16-2026, El Peruano, supreme decree on ENFEN, Congreso del Peru, Senate ratifies Velarde, Caretas, Senate to choose three BCRP directors, El Peruano, bicameral Congress installed, La Republica, final runoff count, Council on Foreign Relations, Peru’s presidents in a decade, Wikipedia, Keiko Fujimori, SeafoodSource, Peru’s anchoveta fishery, ComexPeru, Peru’s 2023 contraction
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