Climate & Economy · Peru
Key Facts
—The alert. Peru’s ENFEN commission activated an El Niño Costero alert on February 13, 2026.
—The forecast. The event is expected to run from around March into November, mostly weak with possible moderate intensity around mid-year.
—The duration. Recent studies suggest the warming could last into early 2027.
—The crops. Agricultural activity fell 2.06% in March, with mangoes, coffee and cacao among the hardest hit.
—The fish. Anchovy fishing restrictions have pushed fishmeal prices up more than 75% from a year earlier.
Peru is bracing for a long stretch of unsettled weather along its Pacific coast. The country’s El Niño monitors say the current coastal warming will persist into late 2026, pressuring both farms and fisheries.
A long, mostly weak event
Peru’s multi-agency study commission ENFEN activated an El Niño Costero alert on February 13, 2026. It projected that the event would begin around March, persist until November and remain mostly weak, with a chance of moderate intensity around the middle of the year.
More recent assessments suggest the warming could last into early 2027 and may intensify toward the end of 2026. El Niño Costero refers to warming concentrated near Peru’s coast, distinct from the basin-wide Pacific pattern.
ENFEN, which stands for the Multisectoral Commission for the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon, brings together oceanographers, meteorologists and fisheries experts. Its job is to translate sea-temperature data into practical warnings for government agencies and the public. The distinction between a coastal event and the larger El Niño–Southern Oscillation matters because a localised warming can still deliver heavy rains and disrupt marine life even when the broader Pacific looks unremarkable.
For readers outside Latin America, it helps to think of El Niño Costero as a warm patch that hugs the shoreline rather than stretching across the entire ocean. That concentrated heat can supercharge local storms and push fish into cooler, deeper water, creating economic headaches that are felt well before any global climate headlines appear.
Pressure on coastal crops
The stakes are high because many of Peru’s most valuable export crops grow in the coastal valleys that El Niño Costero hits hardest. Agricultural activity fell 2.06% in March, with mangoes, coffee and cacao among the crops most affected.
Analysts warn that if sea-surface temperatures climb beyond weak levels, damage to farming could deepen. Shifts in rainfall and heat can disrupt flowering, harvest timing and crop quality in sensitive valleys.
Peru’s coastal agriculture relies on a delicate calendar. Mango trees, for instance, need a dry period to trigger flowering, and unseasonal rains can slash yields. Coffee and cacao, often grown on hillsides just inland, are vulnerable to both excessive moisture and temperature swings that encourage fungal diseases. When output drops, the effects travel quickly through export channels to buyers in North America, Europe and Asia who count on Peruvian shipments to fill supermarket shelves.
A hit to the anchovy fishery
El Niño also disrupts the cold, nutrient-rich waters that sustain Peru’s anchovy, the backbone of its fishmeal industry. Fishing restrictions tied to the warming have driven fishmeal prices up more than 75% from a year earlier.
Peru is one of the world’s top suppliers of fishmeal, a key ingredient in fish and shrimp feed. Higher prices ripple through global aquaculture supply chains far beyond Peru’s shores.
The anchovy fleet operates under a strict quota system that is adjusted as ocean conditions change. When warm water pushes anchovy schools deeper or farther south, the government often shortens the fishing season or reduces the allowable catch to protect the stock. That conservation logic is sound, but it immediately tightens the global supply of fishmeal, raising costs for salmon farmers in Norway and Chile and for shrimp producers in Southeast Asia.
A mixed outlook
Not all effects are negative. Forecasters at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts have flagged that parts of Peru could see wetter conditions, which in some areas can help replenish soil moisture and reservoirs.
The balance of risks will depend on how strong the event becomes and how long it lasts. Authorities continue to monitor coastal temperatures for signs of intensification into 2027.
What to watch next is whether the moderate-intensity window around mid-year widens or stays narrow. Another open question is how quickly the anchovy biomass recovers if the warming eases, because that will determine whether fishmeal prices stay elevated through the end of the year. On land, the key unknown is whether the extra rainfall arrives at the right moment for crops that have already suffered a dry spell, or whether it comes too fast and causes flooding in the narrow coastal valleys. The answers to those questions will shape Peru’s economic trajectory well beyond 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
How long will El Niño Costero last in Peru?
ENFEN projected it would run from around March into November 2026, and recent studies suggest the warming could persist into early 2027.
Which crops are most affected?
Agricultural activity fell 2.06% in March, with mangoes, coffee and cacao among the crops hit hardest along the coast.
Why are fishmeal prices rising?
Anchovy fishing restrictions tied to the warming have pushed fishmeal prices up more than 75% from a year earlier, affecting global feed markets.
Sources
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