Panama Politics Explained, Who Holds Power in 2026

PANAMA · POLITICS

Panama politics in October 2026 revolves around President José Raúl Mulino, a 71-seat National Assembly run by a 42-vote majority, and independent bodies that hold power of their own, from the courts to the Canal Authority. This guide names who holds each major office as of 26 October 2026 and what is still unsettled, from the 2027 budget to the future of the Cobre Panamá mine.

How Power Is Shared in Panama

Panama is a presidential republic in which the president is elected for five years and cannot be re-elected in the next two presidential periods, under Articles 177 and 178 of the Constitution. The 71 deputies of the National Assembly serve five-year terms as well (Articles 147 and 148), and both were chosen in the vote of 5 May 2024.

Mulino won that vote with about 34% of the valid ballots on the joint ticket of the Realizando Metas (RM) and Alianza parties, ahead of Ricardo Lombana of the Movimiento Otro Camino (MOCA) with 24.59%, on a turnout of 77.7%. He had stepped in for former president Ricardo Martinelli, who was disqualified after a money-laundering conviction, and he ran without a vice-presidential candidate.

The Constitution’s fallback rule therefore matters, since no vice president was elected beside Mulino: a minister stands in when the president is absent for more than ten days (Article 188), and if the presidency falls vacant the other ministers elect one of their number by majority vote (Article 189). The president also appoints and removes ministers and provincial governors at will (Articles 183, 184 and 252), which makes the cabinet and the governors extensions of the Presidency.

Elected mayors give local politics a separate footing, since each district elects a mayor for five years (Article 241), while the executive names a governor for each province, such as Marilyn Vallarino in Panamá Oeste, according to a ministry report of 26 September 2026. For a regional comparison of how much weight Panama carries, see the Latin America Power Index.

President Mulino and His Cabinet

José Raúl Mulino, born on 13 June 1959 in David, Chiriquí, is a lawyer who served as foreign minister in 1993 and 1994 and as security minister under Martinelli from 2010 to 2014. He took office on 1 July 2024 and works from the Palacio de las Garzas, the seat of the presidency in Panama City’s San Felipe quarter.

Minister of the Presidency Juan Carlos Orillac announced on 10 October 2026 that the Cabinet Council had approved a state of emergency after the 9 October earthquake, together with US$100 million for the response. Orillac also presents executive bills to the Assembly and answers its Budget Commission on the Presidency’s spending, La Prensa reports.

Nine more ministers carry much of the day-to-day weight of government. Each held the post in October 2026, according to official ministry pages and national outlets, and the list gives one current issue for each.

• Javier Martínez-Acha, Foreign Affairs: a financier with 27 years in markets who met Russia’s ambassador in late October 2026 about Panamanians linked to the war in Ukraine.
• Felipe Chapman, Economy and Finance: his ministry houses the national budget directorate, and bill 644 sets 2027 spending at US$35.1 billion.
• Frank Ábrego, Public Security: he runs the police, border, aeronaval and migration services described below.
• Julio Moltó, Commerce and Industries, and Juan Carlos Navarro, Environment: with Chapman they form the commission that reported to Mulino on Cobre Panamá.
• Dinoska Montalvo, Government: her ministry’s site lists the civil-protection system Sinaproc and the prison system among its units.
• Ventura Vega, Education: he was sworn in on 13 August 2026 after Lucy Molinar resigned.
• Jackeline Muñoz, Labour: her ministry ordered the accounts of the port firm Serviestiba attached in October 2026 to safeguard its workers’ rights after the firm closed operations.
• José Ramón Icaza, Minister for Canal Affairs: he chairs the board of the Canal Authority.

Mulino changed his education minister in August 2026, when Lucy Molinar resigned on 12 August after 25 months and Ventura Vega was sworn in the next day. The Public Ministry is investigating the purchase of 54,000 laptops for teachers worth US$28.4 million, which La Prensa calls one of her last acts in office.

The National Assembly and Its Blocs

The Assembly elected Shirley Castañedas of Realizando Metas as its president on 1 July 2026 with 42 votes, replacing Jorge Herrera, who led the chamber in the 2025 to 2026 year. Her rival Grace Hernández received 21 votes and eight deputies abstained, which accounts for all 71 seats.

Her majority combines Realizando Metas, the party that carried Mulino to office; Cambio Democrático (CD), which ran Rómulo Roux in 2024; the Partido Revolucionario Democrático (PRD), the party of former president Laurentino Cortizo; a mixed bloc; and independents. Manuel Cohen of CD is first vice president of the chamber, and the independent Manuel Cheng is second vice president after winning 43 votes.

The opposition is split into two blocs that backed Hernández: Vamos, a coalition of independent deputies founded by former deputy Juan Diego Vásquez, and Seguimos, which includes Hernández, José Pérez Barboni and Ernesto Cedeño of MOCA and the independent Betserai Richards. The eight deputies of the Panameñista Party stayed neutral and abstained.

The agenda is stuck at the end of the first legislature, because the Budget Commission closed its 22 October session without starting the first debate on bill 644, which sets 2027 spending at US$35.1 billion. Its chair, Eduardo Vásquez of CD, ended the meeting after the PRD and RM deputies stayed away, and Castañedas convened the commission again for 26 October at 9:00 a.m., La Estrella reports.

A separate fight over electoral reform bill 699, which would change the rules for the 2029 elections, halted its second debate on 19 October 2026, when the session went into recess amid clashes over the presence of Electoral Tribunal magistrates. If the Assembly does not take the bill up before the ordinary period closes on 31 October, the debate moves to January 2027, La Estrella reports.

Mulino has pushed back as well, returning two bills on 20 September 2026: one reforming the Assembly’s internal rules, which he partly objected to as unconstitutional and inconvenient, and one widening discounts for retirees, which he objected to as a whole. In October 2026 the Government Commission recommended, by five votes to two, accepting his constitutional objections to four articles of the rules bill, La Estrella reports.

Parties, Opposition and Rising Figures

Realizando Metas won the presidency under Mulino, who replaced its first candidate, Ricardo Martinelli, after his conviction in the New Business money-laundering case, and Martinelli has lived in asylum in Colombia since 2025. In August 2026 Lombana met Martinelli in Bogotá, which MOCA says was not a political alliance.

The PRD is led by deputy Benicio Robinson, who announced on 22 October 2026 that the party will ask the Comptroller for a forensic audit of its finances over the past 15 years. Robinson also backs a proposal to abolish public funding for parties, an amount he put at US$249 million.

The Panameñista Party postponed its internal elections from 31 January 2027 to May 2027 because of the earthquake, according to a statement dated 21 October 2026. Its deputy José Luis Varela asked on the floor on 19 October whether the visit of the Electoral Tribunal magistrates would allow deputies to put questions to them.

Vamos counts Gabriel Silva as its vice president, and its deputy Jorge Bloise called the changes to the electoral reform a step backward that weakens democracy. Deputies Alexandra Brenes and Walkiria Chandler filed the bloc’s minority report on the bill on 8 October 2026.

Former president Martín Torrijos is building a new party, and the Electoral Tribunal recognised Unidos para la Nueva Era (UNE) as a party in formation on 22 October 2026 after validating 1,248 of 1,572 signatures. Torrijos won the 2004 presidential election with 47.4% of the vote.

Among rising figures, Hernández of MOCA gained profile by drawing 21 votes for the Assembly presidency, and La Prensa reports that her party has reformed its statutes ahead of the 2029 vote. Mayer Mizrachi, the mayor of Panama City, also draws national attention because the municipal police force created in 2025 under his Agreement 162 faces constitutional lawsuits at the Supreme Court.

Courts, Prosecutors and Watchdogs

The Supreme Court has nine magistrates, who are appointed by the Cabinet Council with the Assembly’s approval for ten years, and La Prensa reports that María Cristina Chen Stanziola took over as its president on 2 January 2026 for a two-year term. She won in a second round with seven votes after Olmedo Arrocha withdrew to back her, and Arrocha became vice president of the court.

In a ruling made public on 29 January 2026, the court declared the contract of Panama Ports Company, a subsidiary of Hong Kong’s CK Hutchison, for the Balboa and Cristóbal ports unconstitutional, in a case brought by Comptroller Anel Flores. CK Hutchison disclosed on 19 August 2026 an international arbitration claim of US$1.5 billion against Panama, La Prensa reports.

The Public Ministry is led by Attorney General Luis Carlos Gómez Rudy, who told the court in February 2025 that the ports contract violated 15 articles of the Constitution. Flores and Gómez Rudy clashed on 9 April 2026, when the Comptroller arrived at the anticorruption prosecutor’s office while auditors from his own agency were being interviewed, and the interview was cut short.

The interview was part of the case against former vice president José Gabriel Carrizo, who in mid-October 2026 remained under house arrest while charged with illicit enrichment. Gómez Rudy asked the Supreme Court for a hearing on the Comptroller’s conduct, and a magistrate was assigned to act as guarantees judge.

Elections are run by the Electoral Tribunal, whose three magistrates serve staggered ten-year terms and are led by Narciso Arellano, with Luis Alfonso Guerra as first vice president and Alfredo Juncá as the third member. It recognised Torrijos’s new party on 22 October 2026 and says it sent the electoral reform draft to the Assembly in good time.

Security Forces Without an Army

Article 310 of the Constitution says Panama has no army, and it allows temporary special police services to guard the borders if an outside attack threatens. The security services therefore sit under the Ministry of Public Security, led by Frank Ábrego, the first director of the border service SENAFRONT.

The ministry lists five bodies: the National Police, the National Migration Service, the National Aeronaval Service (SENAN), the National Border Service (SENAFRONT) and the 911 emergency system. A ministry report of 26 September 2026 named police director Jaime Fernández and SENAN director Luis De Gracia, and on 22 October the US Embassy named SENAFRONT director Larry Solís.

After the 9 October earthquake the ministry reported 11,143 officers deployed in the affected zones on the fifth day, and SENAFRONT activated 300 more on 14 October. On 22 October 2026 US Ambassador Kevin Marino Cabrera handed SENAFRONT four buses and a field kitchen worth about US$1.4 million.

Mulino said on 30 April 2025 that the memorandum of understanding with the United States ceded no sovereignty and authorised no permanent military presence. He added that everything passes through the Ministry of Public Security.

The Canal Authority and US Pressure

The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) is an autonomous public body under Article 316 of the Constitution, and its annual budget is kept outside the general state budget under Article 320. Its board has 11 directors: one named by the president, who chairs it with the rank of minister for canal affairs, one by the legislature and nine named by the president and ratified by the Assembly, who serve nine-year terms.

Ilya Espino de Marotta took office as administrator on 7 September 2026 for the period 2026 to 2033, becoming the first woman to lead the canal, after Ricaurte Vásquez Morales. Mulino and board chair Icaza attended the handover at the Administration Building in Balboa.

In the fiscal year to September 2026 the canal handled 13,951 transits, up 4.1%, and posted unaudited revenue of US$6.6 billion, up 16.6%, according to the Authority. Its plan for the Río Indio reservoir would resettle about 550 families, La Prensa reports.

Mulino said in April 2025 that Panama has signed 24 cooperation agreements with the United States since 1990, and the US Embassy under Ambassador Cabrera is now a visible actor in security and disaster aid. For the full picture of US, Chinese and European interests, see the guide to Panama geopolitics.

Cobre Panamá, Pensions and the Earthquake

Cobre Panamá, a copper mine run by First Quantum Minerals of Canada, has been suspended since November 2023, when the Supreme Court declared its contract unconstitutional. On 30 September 2026 the ministers Julio Moltó, Felipe Chapman and Juan Carlos Navarro handed Mulino a commission report with 17 recommendations and six criteria, the Economy Ministry says.

The report adopts no decision and proposes assessing a deal that would end the pending arbitration cases and lead to an orderly closure at no cost to the state, while Mulino says he will announce his decision himself. First Quantum said it will take part in good faith in a process led by the government, La Prensa reports.

The pension reform of Law 462 of 2025 reached a deadline on 18 August 2026, when workers of the Social Security Fund (CSS) had to choose between the old and the new systems. More than 550,000 of about 1.6 million active contributors had not decided the day before, and CSS director Dino Mon said the system would grant no extensions.

The 9 October earthquake, with a magnitude of 7.5 according to the University of Panama’s geosciences institute and an epicentre near Tonosí, led the government to declare a state of emergency on 10 October and set aside US$100 million. The United States gives the magnitude as 7.7, and the first death, of an injured person, was confirmed by Mulino on 14 October, NTN24 reports.

A separate national emergency for the El Niño climate pattern has been in force since 25 August 2026, La Prensa reports, and the 2027 budget bill sets aside US$80.2 million for it. The Assembly’s Budget Commission proposed US$199.1 million more for the 2027 budget, with extra funds for Sinaproc, hospitals and the geosciences institute.

What It Means for US Readers

The US Embassy’s website shows a Level 2 travel advisory, exercise increased caution, because of crime, with some areas at higher risk, as of 26 October 2026. The 9 October earthquake damaged homes, schools and health facilities in several provinces, and the safety guide for expats in Panama covers crime and other everyday risks.

For investors, the signals to watch are the Cobre Panamá decision, the arbitration over the Balboa and Cristóbal ports and the 2027 budget, which together show how Panama treats foreign capital. The canal itself earned US$6.6 billion in the fiscal year to September 2026, and the guide to who runs Panama’s economy covers who benefits.

On policy, Washington works mainly through security cooperation and disaster aid, with US$6 million pledged for earthquake relief by 19 October 2026 and buses and a field kitchen delivered to the border service on 22 October. Mulino says the 2025 security memorandum gives the United States no permanent military presence, and the Panama news and analysis follows how that debate develops.

What Is Not Known

No decision on Cobre Panamá has been announced since the 30 September 2026 report, and the terms of any deal with First Quantum are unknown. The Economy Ministry’s summary of the report puts the arbitration claims tied to the site at no less than US$27 billion, and says the state does not recognise them.

It is not known whether the Assembly will pass the 2027 budget and the electoral reform before the ordinary period closes on 31 October 2026. No vote on either had been reported as of 26 October 2026, when the Budget Commission was due to meet at 9:00 a.m.

It is not known whether Martinelli, who lives in asylum in Colombia, will seek a political deal ahead of the 2029 vote. MOCA says the August 2026 meeting between Lombana and Martinelli was not an alliance, and the Seguimos bloc says it opposes any amnesty initiative.

What Prediction Markets Say

Kalshi, an exchange that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission designated as a contract market in November 2020, priced a Yes on “Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?” at 20.0% on 26 October 2026 at 9:26 a.m. ET. The market pays Yes if the US government has taken control of at least some part of the Panama Canal before 20 January 2029, so even partial control would count.

About 611,000 contracts, each paying US$1 on a Yes result, have traded since the market opened in January 2025, so it is not a thin market. Open interest stood near 100,000 contracts, with a best bid of 20 cents and an ask of 21 cents on 26 October.

In the exchange’s daily price history the price reached an intraday high of 58 cents on 20 January 2025, the day Trump was inaugurated, and fell as low as 11 cents in May 2025. Daily closing prices averaged about 32 cents in June 2026 and about 20 cents so far in October 2026.

These are bets, not polls, and the price shows what traders expect rather than what either government has said. Mulino has said the 2025 memorandum with Washington ceded no sovereignty and allows no permanent military presence.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is the president of Panama in 2026?

José Raúl Mulino has been president since 1 July 2024 for a five-year term. The Constitution bars him from being re-elected in the next two presidential periods.

Does Panama have a vice president?

Mulino ran in 2024 without a vice-presidential candidate, so no vice president was elected with him. If he cannot serve, Article 189 of the Constitution has the ministers choose one of their own.

Who leads Panama’s National Assembly?

Shirley Castañedas was elected president of the 71-seat Assembly on 1 July 2026 with 42 votes. Her rival Grace Hernández received 21 votes, and eight deputies abstained.

Who runs the Panama Canal?

The Panama Canal Authority, an autonomous public body, runs it, and Ilya Espino de Marotta has been its administrator since 7 September 2026. A board of 11 directors, chaired by the minister for canal affairs, oversees it.

Does Panama have an army?

No, Article 310 of the Constitution says Panama has no army. Security falls to the National Police, the border service SENAFRONT, the aeronaval service SENAN and the migration service under the Ministry of Public Security.

What are the biggest political issues in Panama in October 2026?

The 2027 budget and an electoral reform bill are stuck in the Assembly, and the government is weighing the future of the Cobre Panamá mine. A magnitude 7.5 earthquake on 9 October also forced a state of emergency.

What does the prediction market say about the Panama Canal?

Kalshi gave a 20.0% chance on 26 October 2026 that the United States takes control of at least some part of the canal before 20 January 2029. It is a bet, not a poll.

Sources: Autoridad del Canal de Panamá, Ilya Espino de Marotta takes office as administrator, 2026-09-07; Autoridad del Canal de Panamá, results of fiscal year 2026, 2026-10-21; Autoridad del Canal de Panamá, board of directors, 2026-10-26; Ministerio de Seguridad Pública, the minister, 2026-10-26; Ministerio de Seguridad Pública, 11,143 officers deployed after the earthquake, 2026-10-13; Ministerio de Seguridad Pública, SENAFRONT activates 300 more units, 2026-10-14; Ministerio de Seguridad Pública, Mulino on the memorandum with the United States, 2025-04-30; Ministerio de Seguridad Pública, security dialogue in Panamá Oeste, 2026-09-26; Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores, biography of the president, 2026-05-19; Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores, the foreign minister, 2026-05-20; Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas, authorities, 2026-10-26; Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas, interministerial commission report on Cobre Panamá, 2026-09-30; Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas, Palacio de las Garzas as seat of the presidency, 2025-08-07; Ministerio de Comercio e Industrias, authorities, 2026-10-26; Ministerio de Gobierno, authorities, 2026-10-26; Ministerio Público, news and authorities, 2026-10-24; Organización Panamericana de la Salud, situation report 1 on the earthquake, 2026-10-11; US Embassy in Panama, earthquake relief, 2026-10-19; US Embassy in Panama, buses for SENAFRONT, 2026-10-22; US Embassy in Panama, travel advisory banner and mission leaders, 2026-10-26; Commodity Futures Trading Commission, designation of KalshiEX LLC, 2020-11-04; Kalshi, market KXCANAL-29 “Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?”, rules, order book and daily price history, 2026-10-26; Constitución Política de la República de Panamá, text of 2004, 2026-10-26; La Estrella de Panamá, Castañedas takes the Assembly presidency, 2026-07-01; La Estrella de Panamá, the 42-vote majority, 2026-07-02; La Estrella de Panamá, electoral reform fight, 2026-10-19; La Estrella de Panamá, electoral reform paused, 2026-10-21; La Estrella de Panamá, UNE and the Electoral Tribunal, 2026-10-22; La Estrella de Panamá, Panameñista elections postponed, 2026-10-22; La Estrella de Panamá, PRD forensic audit request, 2026-10-22; La Estrella de Panamá, Government Commission on the rules bill, 2026-10-22; La Estrella de Panamá, the stalled 2027 budget, 2026-10-24; La Prensa, Chen elected Supreme Court president, 2026-01-04; La Prensa, Comptroller Flores and Attorney General Gómez Rudy, 2026-04-29; La Prensa, topic page on José Gabriel Carrizo, 2026-10-26; La Prensa, topic page on Minister of the Presidency Juan Carlos Orillac, 2026-10-26; La Prensa, topic page on Grace Hernández and the Seguimos bloc, 2026-10-26; La Prensa, politics section (Foreign Minister and Russia, El Niño emergency), 2026-10-26; TVN, politics section (Vamos deputies Silva and Bloise), 2026-10-26; La Prensa, CK Hutchison arbitration claim, 2026-08-19; La Prensa, Ventura Vega becomes education minister, 2026-08-13; La Prensa, pension deadline, 2026-08-17; La Prensa, commission report on the mine, 2026-09-29; La Prensa, First Quantum on the commission report, 2026-09-30; La Prensa, Mulino vetoes two bills, 2026-09-20; La Prensa, Lombana and Martinelli, 2026-09-20; La Prensa, suits against the municipal police, 2026-09-28; Infobae, state of emergency after the earthquake, 2026-10-10; NTN24, first death after the earthquake, 2026-10-14; TVN, Martinelli disqualified, Mulino without a vice president, 2024-03-04; TVN, record turnout on 5 May 2024, 2024-05-12.