Opinion: the media and pollsters, the big losers of the first round in Brazil

By Orlando Avendaño*

(Opinion) Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the first round of Brazil’s elections on Sunday against his challenger, current President Jair Bolsonaro.

However, it was not a resounding triumph for da Silva, as pollsters and the media claimed.

Ultimately, they are the day’s big losers: the media and the pollsters.

Because Jair Bolsonaro did not lose, even if they tried to sell it that way.

More than one media outlet will comment and lie to sing their own praises.

In no poll did Lula da Silva have a lead of fewer than 9 points over Bolsonaro.

The Globo and Folha opinion polls had completely lost reality: 18 and 14 points difference, respectively.

This is how they try to manipulate and influence the election.

In the end, da Silva had 48.43% of the vote, Bolsonaro 43.2%. Five points difference, and that’s it.

Bolsonaro goes into the second round stronger, not only because he far exceeded the left’s expectations but also because his force, Bolsonarismo, won at the national level with an overwhelming victory in Congress.

In both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party has triumphed, and the right can quickly achieve a majority.

Bolsonarismo’s triumph was resounding and solidified itself as a decisive force in Brazil that transcends Bolsonaro as a political figure.

The remarkable results in São Paulo with Bolsonaro ally Tarcisio, in Rio de Janeiro with Cláudio Castro of the Liberal Party, and the historic election of Nikolas Ferreira in Minas Gerais are some of the milestones of Bolsonarism this Sunday.

What is surprising, however, is not the consolidation of Bolsonarismo but the apparent strength of Lula da Silva and the Workers’ Party.

In the second round, Bolsonaro will have a hard time, although, in the eyes of the media and pollsters, the president did not even have a chance in the first round.

And if the trend continues, Lula da Silva will likely be Brazil’s next president.

Regardless of whether da Silva wins in the second round, Sunday’s vote is alarming.

Despite his troubled legal past, he is the first candidate of that sort to come so close to becoming Brazil’s president.

In March 2016, he was arrested, and his home was searched.

The judiciary then questioned him about his involvement in the largest corruption scheme in the Western Hemisphere: the Lava Jato and Odebrecht case.

He was accused of receiving some US$8 million in bribes.

A year and a few months later, a federal judge in Brazil sentenced da Silva to 9 years and six months in prison for corruption.

Unfortunately, as it always is when justice prevails, the already corroded institution set him free in 2019.

Free, pardoned, with permission to run in any election.

But the scandal was there, and everyone already knew that Lula da Silva had received millions in bribes thanks to a gigantic corruption system that affected Latin America and engulfed one president after another.

He was corrupt, he was impeached, and he was put in jail.

But that didn’t matter.

This Sunday, Oct. 2, more than 57 million people voted for him.

A politician sentenced to 9 years in prison for corruption and responsible for one of the largest corruption schemes in the world was elected by more than 57 million people.

Yes, Bolsonaro may be vile and unpresentable to some.

His ideas may frighten many. But he is not a corrupt man on trial.

And for some, in the end, it doesn’t matter. There is neither a criterion nor a moral compass.

Everything is turned upside down.

The Iberosphere is sick. It is dominated not by reason but by the most improbable and irrational self-destructive impulses.

The stubborn will to drive toward the cliff at full speed and without brakes.

Even if he loses in the second round of voting, the fact that millions have already voted for Lula da Silva shows how damaged the continent is.

And there is no way out.

From Chile and Patagonia to Alaska and the Arctic Ocean.

* Co-Editor in Chief of the U.S. media El American. Venezuelan journalist and columnist with studies in Venezuelan History. He is the author of the book ‘Días de sumisión’.