Murillo Consolidates Power as Ortega Fades, Old Allies Fall

In mid-2025, official police reports confirmed the arrest of Bayardo Arce, a 76-year-old historic Sandinista commander and longtime economic adviser to President Daniel Ortega.

Police raided his home in Managua, citing an investigation into “transactions outside the state.” Arce first faced de facto house arrest before being transferred to a detention centre. His arrest marked a turning point: it was not an isolated case, but part of a clear political purge.

The arrests extend far beyond Arce. Former military officers such as retired colonel Rodolfo Castillo and retired general Álvaro Baltodano have been detained.

Judicial records show that in the past year more than 900 court officials—nearly 10% of Nicaragua’s judiciary—were dismissed. Many were replaced by individuals loyal to Vice President Rosario Murillo, who is also Ortega’s wife.

This power shift comes as Ortega’s chronic health problems—from lupus to heart disease—limit his public appearances. Murillo has used this moment to remove any rival who could challenge her authority once Ortega leaves the political stage.

These removals include iconic figures from the 1979 Sandinista revolution, many of whom now live in hiding, moving nightly to avoid arrest.

Nicaragua’s Power Shift

The story behind the story is that this is much more than a political crackdown—it is a reshaping of the state into a family-controlled structure.

Murillo appears determined to secure succession for herself and her children, replacing experienced Sandinista leaders with loyalists whose careers depend entirely on her favour.

This strategy has economic consequences. Business groups point to falling investor confidence, concerns over private property protections, and the risks of arbitrary asset seizures.

Official labour statistics show a loss of over 120,000 formal sector jobs since 2017, alongside a 20% drop in real household income. Remittances from abroad now form a crucial part of many families’ survival, showing the weakness of the domestic economy.

For observers outside Nicaragua, this is a case study in how political power can shift rapidly when an authoritarian leader’s health fails and succession planning becomes urgent.

It demonstrates how legal frameworks can be dismantled through selective firings, mass judicial turnover, and targeted arrests—without the need for open elections or armed conflict.

Behind the headlines is a reality where political survival comes before institutional stability, and the cost of that approach is visible not just in Nicaragua’s political climate, but in its economic and social health.

Murillo’s consolidation of power may keep the family in control, but it leaves a more fragile state for everyone else.

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