Mexico Markets Reopen With Peso Near 18 And Stocks At Record Highs

Key Points

1. With Friday’s BMV shut for a local holiday, Monday pricing largely reflects Thursday’s close.
2. A softer dollar index and Mexico’s rate gap kept USD/MXN supported, even as traders priced more Banxico cuts.
3. The IPC’s rally was led by airports and cyclicals, while select defensives lagged.

Mexico’s peso started the week anchored to the 18-per-dollar handle, with Monday morning trading around 18.0 after Friday’s market holiday left no new local close.

Thursday set the tone: USD/MXN finished near 18.03, and the dollar index ended around 98.3, keeping the global backdrop constructive for high-carry currencies.

Monex estimated an overnight band near 17.99–18.19 and said the peso was being supported by a weaker dollar and a steadier trade backdrop ahead of a 2026 USMCA review.

In El Financiero, Monex’s Janneth Quiroz summed up the base case: with a “weak dollar” and an “attractive rate differential,” the peso can “stay near 18,” while inflation and the Fed’s pace remain the swing factors.

The policy debate is tightening around how fast the yield cushion shrinks. Mexico’s annual inflation accelerated to 3.8% in November, complicating the case for rapid easing.

Even so, a Reuters poll showed economists expecting another Banxico cut on Dec. 18, which would take the benchmark to 7.00%.

Mexico’s 10-year M-bono yield sat around 9.10%, keeping the carry logic alive. Markets reward predictability and penalize abrupt, interventionist detours.

Technicals underline the tug-of-war. Your 4-hour USD/MXN chart looks stretched, with RSI in the mid-20s and price leaning on the lower band after slipping under short moving averages.

Mexican Equities Rally Ahead of Holiday Pause

The daily is also oversold, so bounces are plausible, but follow-through likely needs a catalyst. On equities, the S&P/BMV IPC ended Thursday at 64,712 after a roughly 2% jump on about 169 million shares, printing a new high before the holiday pause.

Momentum is strong on both 4-hour and daily views, with RSI readings in the 60s, which is bullish but raises the odds of profit-taking.

Because Friday was closed, these were the top movers from Thursday (the last session before the weekend): Winners—GAP (+6.1%), OMA (+5.0%), ORBIA (+4.7%), GMEXICO (+4.2%), BOLSA (+3.8%). Losers—CUERVO (−0.4%), QUALITAS (−0.5%), ALFA (−0.5%), FEMSA (−0.8%), GENOMMA LAB (−1.4%).

Offshore, the Mexico ETF EWW turned over about 1.6 million shares, a steady read on risk appetite rather than a rush for the exits.

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