Mexican Stocks Rally as Mexico Avoids Technical Recession

The S&P/BMV IPC rose 1.16% to 56,259.28 points on April 30, extending a monthly gain above 7%. Investors cheered a surprise local growth beat and shrugged off a US GDP contraction of 0.3% in Q1.

The day’s gains followed a sharp selloff earlier in the week, when tariff fears and concerns about slowing growth triggered a 2.4% drop. Market participants responded to a series of official reports showing that Mexico narrowly avoided a technical recession in the first quarter, posting 0.2% GDP growth.

The agricultural sector led this modest expansion with an 8.1% increase, while manufacturing declined and services stagnated. This data calmed some nerves but did not erase doubts about the country’s economic momentum.

Trading activity advanced 123 stocks against 93 decliners, with 11 unchanged. The index ranged between 55,961.35 and 56,336.46 points as buyers stepped back in after early profit-taking.

The peso slipped 0.38% to 19.6216 per dollar amid US stagflation concerns, but it still logged a 4% monthly rise, its strongest since 2021. Local GDP avoided technical recession despite weakness in construction, trade and services.

On the fixed-income front, 10-year yields added two basis points to 9.32% and 20-year yields rose one basis point to 9.93%. Bond traders cited mixed growth data and central bank caution.

Miners led gains: Industrias Peñoles climbed 4.36% on rising metal prices and solid production forecasts. Retailer Wal-Mart de México advanced 4.07% after beating first-quarter sales estimates. The Bolsa Mexicana itself jumped 3.24% on renewed risk appetite.

By contrast, Genomma Lab shares fell 6.87% on margin pressure from higher raw material costs. Grupo Bimbo dropped 6.18% amid rising fuel expenses. Orbia lost 4.75% as industrial inventories tightened.

Mexico’s Market Sentiment

The iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (EWW) closed at 56.65 USD, up 0.41%, reflecting modest domestic net inflows. International investors trimmed exposure to emerging markets after volatile oil and growth signals.

Asian markets rose on April 30, led by Japan’s Nikkei (+0.9%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (+0.5%) and Australia’s ASX 200 (+0.7%). European bourses held steady, with DAX up 0.3% and FTSE 100 up 0.4%.

US indices posted mixed results: the Dow gained 0.35% to 40,669, the S&P 500 climbed 0.15% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.1%. Oil prices fell sharply, with WTI down 3.6% and Brent down 3.5%, pressuring energy-sector stocks.

Traders cited surplus inventories and demand concerns amid global growth uncertainty. Technically, the IPC respected its 200-hour moving average near 53,432 points as support.

Its 50-hour average crossed above the 200-hour on April 15, signaling bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands narrowed, suggesting an upcoming consolidation between 56,000 and 57,000 points.

“The peso suffered from systemic nervousness due to weak US growth, raising stagflation fears in the United States,” Monex Grupo Financiero said. “We note weakness in key domestic demand components such as construction, trade and services,” Invex Grupo Financiero added.

Investors will watch upcoming US employment data and Mexican inflation figures. They will also monitor oil and metal prices for cues on corporate earnings. Market participants expect range-bound trading until clearer growth signals emerge.

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