Mexican Stock Market Holds Support as Peso Weakens and Technical Levels Dictate Moves

Mexico City, June 19, 2025 – The S&P/BMV IPC index closed at 56,729.57 on June 18, 2025, posting a modest gain of 0.09% after a session defined by currency pressure and technical boundaries.

Official market data confirm the IPC remains around 2% below its February 2024 high, but it has still outperformed most emerging peers with a 17.7% year-to-date rise.

The Mexican peso continued to weaken against the US dollar, with the exchange rate moving from 18.91 on June 11 to above 19.01 by June 17.

This trend reflects renewed dollar strength and growing risk aversion, especially as Middle East tensions and uncertainty around US monetary policy have increased.

The peso’s decline has pressured Mexican equities, particularly those with exposure to imported inputs and foreign debt, as confirmed by daily central bank data and exchange rate histories.

Technical analysis of the daily chart shows the IPC index tested and bounced from its 50-day moving average, halting a recent decline. The price found support just above 56,700, while the 200-day moving average at 54,239 continues to reinforce the longer-term uptrend.

Bollinger Bands have narrowed, signaling reduced volatility. The Ichimoku cloud still offers underlying support, but the MACD is negative on both daily and 4-hour charts, indicating weakening momentum.

IPC Shows Resilience Amid Peso Weakness and Global Volatility

The RSI stands at 42 on the daily chart, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions, while the 4-hour RSI has dipped to 30, reflecting short-term caution.

ETF flows remained positive, with regulatory changes allowing pension funds to diversify into international ETFs. Domestic fundamentals, including a $3.44 billion trade surplus in March and a third consecutive central bank rate cut to 8.50%, continue to support local assets.

However, the peso’s weakness and external uncertainties have tempered risk appetite. The top gainers over the last 24 hours included Industrias Peñoles, which rose 5.3% to 490.88 pesos, and Megacable Holdings, up 4.1% to 54.46 pesos.

Both companies benefited from sector rotation and defensive buying. On the losing side, Grupo México fell 2.3% to 106.73 pesos, while El Puerto de Liverpool dropped 2.2% to 95.28 pesos, as investors rotated out of large-cap industrials and retailers.

Compared to global benchmarks, the IPC’s resilience stands out. The S&P 500 dropped 0.3% and the Nasdaq lost 0.5% in the same period, as global capital flows shifted in response to US macroeconomic signals and trade news.

The IPC’s bounce from its 50-day moving average suggests technical buyers stepped in, preventing further declines. With MACD momentum negative and RSI subdued, the market outlook remains cautious.

Investors are watching currency moves and global developments, with the next direction likely dictated by further shifts in risk appetite and technical levels.

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