The Mexican economy is poised for a slight recovery in November, with an anticipated growth of just 0.1%. This follows a downturn of 0.6% expected for October, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
The timely Economic Activity Indicator (IOAE) reflects this modest growth. The report indicates that the industrial sector is primarily responsible for this uptick, contributing to a 0.1% increase in secondary activities.
However, the tertiary sector, which includes services, remains stagnant with no significant change from October. On an annual basis, economic activity is projected to improve from a growth rate of 0.3% to 1%.
Despite this positive shift, the overall economic landscape for 2024 appears to be cooling. Various institutions have revised their growth estimates downward.
The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) now forecasts a growth range of 1.5% to 2.5%, down from an earlier expectation of 2.5% to 3.5%.
Private sector analysts surveyed by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) predict a modest expansion of 1.55% for this year, with expectations dropping further to 1.17% for 2025.
As Claudia Sheinbaum begins her first year in office, growth projections remain lower than those set by the SHCP. The SHCP estimates a specific growth rate of 2.3%.
Notably, external factors such as Donald Trump’s impending return to the U.S. presidency on January 20 pose significant risks to Mexico‘s economic outlook.
This narrative highlights the delicate balance within the Mexican economy. Broader uncertainties and external pressures may overshadow minor recoveries.
In short, the figures reflect a cautious optimism tempered by the realities of global economic dynamics and domestic challenges.
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