BRAZIL · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- The vote Brazil’s president Lula won re-election on 25 October with about 51.8% of valid votes.
- Growth Brazil’s economy grew 0.5% in the second quarter of 2026, down from 1.1% in the first.
- Prices Consumer prices rose 4.63% in the 12 months to October, above the 4.5% ceiling of the central bank’s inflation target.
- The rate The Selic, Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, stands at 13.75% after the 4 November hold.
- Prediction markets Polymarket, a crypto-based betting market, puts a third-quarter contraction near 78% (14 November, 1:43 p.m. ET).
- As of 14 November 2026, 18:43 GMT (1:43 p.m. ET).
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 74.2 points (November 2026 edition).
Brazil’s re-elected president returns to office in January with growth slowing, inflation above target and interest rates at 13.75%.
Published Saturday, 14 November 2026 · Source: Brazil’s central bank (BCB), its statistics institute (IBGE), its electoral court (TSE) and Polymarket
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Workers’ Party president, won re-election in the runoff of Sunday 25 October 2026, according to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Brazil’s election authority. He starts a fourth term in January 2027 facing slower growth and inflation above the central bank’s target.
For a reader in the United States, the mix matters because Brazilian bonds, US-traded shares of Brazilian firms and the real, the currency, all react to it. The numbers below come from Brazil’s statistics institute and its central bank.
What We Know
The TSE said Lula took about 51.8% of the valid votes (blank and spoiled ballots are not counted), against about 48.2% for Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. It is his fourth term, after terms from 2003 to 2010 and from 2023 to 2026.
IBGE, Brazil’s statistics institute, reported growth of 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 1.1% in the first quarter of 2026 (IBGE’s SIDRA data portal, read 14 November 2026). The second quarter brought 0.5%, each figure measured against the previous quarter.
Unemployment, from IBGE’s PNAD (its quarterly household survey), was 5.2% in July to September 2026 and 5.3% in the two rolling quarters before. That is a small drop of 0.1 points.
IBGE reported this week that consumer prices, measured by the IPCA (Brazil’s official consumer price index), rose 0.14% in October after 0.82% in September. The 12-month rate reached 4.63%, up from 4.58% in September and above the 4.5% top of the central bank’s target band.
The target is 3% with a tolerance of 1.5 points, according to the BCB. The IPCA-15, a mid-month preview, was +0.32% in October, according to BCB data.
The Copom, the monetary policy committee of the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB), held the Selic at 13.75% on Wednesday 4 November 2026, its 282nd meeting. The rate had been cut to 13.75% in September, effective 17 September, according to the BCB’s Selic series.
Why It Matters
Sticky inflation keeps the Selic at 13.75% while growth forecasts fall, so borrowing costs in Brazil stay high. Economists in the BCB’s Focus survey, a weekly poll, expect 2026 inflation of 5.22% (median, 6 November 2026), above the 4.5% ceiling.
The Focus median for 2027 inflation rose to 4.90% from 4.30% on 21 October, a jump of 0.6 points in 16 days, from 21 October to 6 November. The median for 2027 growth fell to 1.15% from 1.32%, and the 2026 figure to 1.75% from 1.82%.
The same survey sees the Selic at 13.75% at the end of 2026 and 12.50% at the end of 2027. That leaves holders of Brazilian bonds with high local yields but a cooling economy beneath them.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
+0.66%
172,457.76
+0.66%
71,204.98
-0.84%
10,660.94
+0.34%
2,848,945
—
2,452.46
-0.02%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 172,457.76 | +0.66% | +9.73% | 171,324.31 | 172,715 | 171,132 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.67 | +0.45% | +7.09% | 5.64 | 5.67 | 5.63 | — |
| SELIC | 13.75% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 45.30 | +1.34% | +39.43% | 44.70 | 45.44 | 44.62 | 23,431,200 |
| VALE3 | 63.50 | -0.70% | -3.30% | 63.95 | 64.24 | 63.12 | 11,175,700 |
| ITUB4 | 42.27 | +1.42% | +7.66% | 41.68 | 42.56 | 41.62 | 19,532,400 |
| BBDC4 | 14.52 | +1.40% | -25.46% | 14.32 | 14.54 | 14.27 | 32,353,600 |
| BBAS3 | 15.10 | -2.45% | -32.89% | 15.48 | 15.60 | 14.98 | 85,573,900 |
| B3SA3 | 14.89 | +0.88% | +2.90% | 14.76 | 14.94 | 14.53 | 34,792,900 |
| ABEV3 | 15.79 | +0.25% | +15.85% | 15.75 | 15.83 | 15.64 | 13,254,800 |
| WEGE3 | 51.31 | -0.66% | +14.48% | 51.65 | 52.05 | 50.93 | 7,741,000 |
| PRIO3 | 63.30 | +0.00% | +58.93% | 63.30 | 63.83 | 62.65 | 10,460,300 |
| SUZB3 | 54.77 | -2.27% | +14.92% | 56.04 | 55.98 | 54.66 | 3,845,300 |
| RENT3 | 30.07 | +1.66% | -28.47% | 29.58 | 30.35 | 29.58 | 7,599,300 |
| AZZA3 | 15.91 | -5.86% | -45.85% | 16.90 | 17.10 | 15.72 | 6,641,600 |
| CSNA3 | 3.72 | -12.06% | -56.79% | 4.23 | 4.14 | 3.71 | 54,060,600 |
| GGBR4 | 24.73 | -0.96% | +30.78% | 24.97 | 25.09 | 24.53 | 5,458,200 |
| ENEV3 | 26.81 | -0.70% | +38.98% | 27.00 | 27.09 | 26.64 | 5,990,500 |
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, an online market where people bet real money on outcomes, priced a third-quarter GDP contraction at about 78% at 1:43 p.m. ET on 14 November: 45.0% for a fall of 0.1% to 0.3% and 33.2% for a fall of more than 0.3%. A rise of 0.0% to 0.2% stood at 14.7% and one of 0.3% to 0.5% at 1.6%, on US$57,203 traded.
On 2026 inflation, Polymarket put 5.00% to 5.49% at 47.1% and 4.50% to 4.99% at 20.5%, on US$234,857 traded. For the 9 December Copom decision it priced no change at 88.0%, a 0.25-point cut at 7.3% and a 0.25-point rise at 1.2%, on US$77,362 traded.
These prices are bets, not polls. The third-quarter market has only US$57,203 traded, so it says little about broad opinion.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What To Watch
IBGE is expected to publish third-quarter GDP on Wednesday 2 December 2026 (date not confirmed at IBGE). The Copom meets on 8 and 9 December, with its Selic decision due on Wednesday 9 December (date not confirmed on the BCB’s calendar page).
What Is Not Known
Third-quarter GDP is not yet published, and it is unclear whether the Copom will cut the Selic in December. The size of the incoming government’s fiscal adjustment has not been announced.
What It Means for You
If you hold Brazilian bonds, US-traded shares of Brazilian firms or the real through a US account, you earn high local rates in a cooling economy. The 2 December GDP release and the 9 December rate decision will show whether that balance shifts.
Connected Coverage
Read the Brazil news hub, our report on Brazil’s October inflation and our look at second-quarter GDP growth. We also covered why the central bank chief gave no Selic guidance.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Brazil’s 25 October runoff?
Lula won with about 51.8% of valid votes, against about 48.2% for Flávio Bolsonaro, the TSE announced. His fourth term starts in January 2027.
How fast is Brazil’s economy growing?
IBGE reported growth of 0.5% in the second quarter of 2026, after 1.1% in the first. Third-quarter data are expected on 2 December 2026 (date not confirmed at IBGE).
What is Brazil’s inflation rate?
IBGE reported this week that inflation was 4.63% in the 12 months to October, above the 4.5% top of the target band. The Selic stands at 13.75%.
When does the central bank decide next?
The Copom meets on 8 and 9 December 2026, with the decision due on Wednesday 9 December (date not confirmed at the BCB). Polymarket priced no change at 88.0% on 14 November.
Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE), runoff result, 25 October 2026. IBGE, SIDRA GDP table https://apisidra.ibge.gov.br/values/t/5932/n1/all/v/6564/p/last%204/c11255/90707 and IPCA table https://apisidra.ibge.gov.br/values/t/1737/n1/all/v/63,2265/p/last%202, read 14 November 2026. Banco Central do Brasil (BCB): Focus survey https://www.bcb.gov.br/publicacoes/focus, 6 November 2026; Copom 282, 4 November 2026 https://www.bcb.gov.br/detalhenoticia/copom/282; Copom calendar https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/monetarypolicy/copomcalendar; IPCA series 13522 https://api.bcb.gov.br/dados/serie/bcdata.sgs.13522/dados/ultimos/3?formato=json and IPCA-15 series 7478; Selic series https://api.bcb.gov.br/dados/serie/bcdata.sgs.432/dados. Polymarket, read 14 November 2026, 1:43 p.m. ET: https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-gdp-growth-in-q3-2026-qoq, https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-annual-inflation-2026, https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-brazil-decision-in-december-20260918.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
Brazil runoff, Sunday, October 25: Brazil runoff start time and results schedule. Latest: Brazil runoff polls, Flávio 51%, Lula 49%.