Latin American Pulse for Thursday, April 10, 2026

Argentina Approves Glacier Law 137-111-3 After 12-Hour Marathon: Karina Milei Watched From the Gallery as Mining Corridor Unlocked — Adorni Interpellation Blocked by PRO and UCR — Escribana Testified Two Hours: US$200K Chain From Asamblea to Indio Cua to Caballito Confirmed — Peru Enters Electoral Silence: All 35 Campaigns Closed, Propaganda Ban From Midnight, Ley Seca Saturday, Vote April 12 — IBOV Hits Second Consecutive All-Time High at 195,129 — USD/BRL Falls to 5.0573, Lowest Since April 2024 — PETR4 Recovers R$20 Billion: Brent Rebounds to $95.92 on Ceasefire Doubt — Petrobras Neutralises GLP Auction, Signs $450M Tartaruga Verde Deal, Asks Ibama for Foz do Amazonas — Islamabad Talks Today

Risk Snapshot

Argentina: Glacier Law Approved at 2:30 AM — Karina Milei in the Gallery, Mining Corridor Unlocked, Adorni Shielded

137-111-3 after 12-hour debate; first law since ordinary session began; Karina Milei arrived ~22:00, sat in presidency gallery; LLA + PRO + UCR + provincial bloc; opens Josemaría, Los Azules, El Pachón, Vicuña/Filo del Sol; Adorni interpellation rejected (Penacca UP); moción de censura rejected; Karina/$Libra citation rejected (Ferraro CC); PRO+UCR voted with LLA on all procedural motions; escribana Nechevenko testified 2h Wednesday: confirmed zero-interest US$200K loan chain from jubiladas; MERVAL −0.38% to 2,999,608

What Happened

• —The vote: Argentina’s Cámara de Diputados approved the Glacier Law reform 137-111-3 at approximately 2:30 AM Thursday, after a 12-hour session that began Wednesday at 15:00. The law — the first legislation passed since the ordinary session period opened — redefines the protection of glaciers and periglacial zones by delegating environmental oversight to provinces, which can now authorise mining activities in areas they determine do not serve relevant hydrological functions. The immediate beneficiaries are San Juan’s copper-gold mega-projects: Josemaría, Los Azules, El Pachón, and the Vicuña cluster including Filo del Sol — collectively representing tens of billions in frozen investment. The oficialismo’s coalition held firm: LLA’s 27 dictamen votes were reinforced by PRO (4), UCR (2), Innovación Federal Misiones (2), and provincial representatives from mining states including three Unión por la Patria defectors. Karina Milei, the Secretaria General de la Presidencia, arrived at approximately 22:00 and watched the final debate from the presidency gallery — her presence a clear signal of the vote’s political importance and the certainty of victory.
• —The opposition’s failed gambits: The session opened with nine apartamientos de reglamento — all from the opposition. Diputada Penacca (UP) moved to interpellate Adorni and then proposed a moción de censura — both rejected with PRO and UCR votes. Ferraro (CC) demanded citations for Karina Milei and Adorni over the $Libra crypto scandal — also rejected. The LLA bloc entered with a directive from leadership to ignore provocations and secure the law. As one libertario told Infobae: “The votes are there — let them keep the speeches.” The opposition’s rhetoric was fierce: Juan Grabois declared it a “poisoned law” that would put cyanide in children’s water; Miriam Bregman (FIT) accused the government of buying provincial votes through the $400 billion coparticipation advance. Greenpeace activists hung a protest banner from the Congress building. None of it changed the arithmetic.
• —The Adorni judicial front: Hours before the congressional session, escribana Nechevenko testified for over two hours at Comodoro Py before fiscal Pollicita. She confirmed the financial chain: Adorni mortgaged his Asamblea apartment, used those funds plus cash to purchase a property at the Indio Cua country club in Exaltación de la Cruz, then acquired the Caballito apartment for US$200,000 at zero interest from two retired women, payable by November 2026. The testimony maps the property chain but does not resolve the source-of-funds question. The jubiladas themselves are expected to testify next — their legal status (witness or suspect) depends on what emerges. Adorni’s April 29 congressional report remains scheduled.

Why It Matters

The Glacier Law is Milei’s most significant legislative achievement — a structural reform that changes the relationship between federal environmental protection and provincial resource sovereignty. For the mining sector, the immediate impact is measurable: projects that were frozen for years under the original 2010 law can now proceed through provincial environmental assessments. For Milei politically, it demonstrates that even with the Adorni scandal consuming public attention, his congressional coalition can deliver. But the MERVAL’s −0.38% decline to 2,999,608 (back below 3 million) shows the market is looking past the law to the Vaca Muerta economics at $96 oil and the institutional damage from the Adorni crisis. The PRO’s role is clarifying: they will shield the government procedurally (blocking interpellations, voting with LLA on the floor) while maintaining public silence on Adorni — a posture Mauricio Macri warned against when he said in March that “those who remain silent when they should speak do not protect change, they weaken it.” As covered in yesterday’s Pulse, the escribana testimony creates a documented chain that fiscal Pollicita will now follow to its source.

RISK: ELEVATED

Peru: Silence — All Campaigns Closed, the Countdown to Saturday Begins

All 35 cierres completed by Thu 23:59; propaganda ban effective Fri 00:00; ley seca Sat 08:00; vote Sat Apr 12; Keiko massive rally Villa El Salvador; Álvarez filled SJL; López Aliaga Jesús María (Av. La Peruanidad); Sánchez closed Wed with Antauro Humala at Plaza Dos de Mayo; Cerrón participated via livestream from hiding; ONPE: 60% results by midnight, updates every 15 min; 27.3M voters; 10,570 locales; 49,501 fiscalizadores; Keiko 18.6%, Álvarez 12.1%, López Aliaga 10.9% (last polls); second round June 7 certain

What Happened

• —The final closings: Peru’s campaign is over. All 35 presidential candidates completed their final rallies by Thursday at 23:59. Keiko Fujimori drew massive crowds to Villa El Salvador — south Lima, her strongest demographic zone — invoking her father’s legacy one final time. Carlos Álvarez filled San Juan de Lurigancho, Lima’s most populated district, arriving from his Piura tour. López Aliaga held Avenida La Peruanidad in Jesús María. César Acuña closed in Trujillo. Jorge Nieto made a late push in Cusco before returning to Lima. Roberto Sánchez had already closed Wednesday at Plaza Dos de Mayo — with former coup leader Antauro Humala publicly at his side, cementing the Castillista alliance that polls strongest in Peru’s south. And Vladimir Cerrón, the convicted fugitive, participated in his party’s rally via livestream from an undisclosed location — the justice system still unable to capture him four days before the nation votes.
• —What happens next: From midnight tonight (Friday), all political propaganda is prohibited — television, radio, billboards, rallies, social media campaigning. The ley seca (alcohol ban) begins Saturday at 08:00 and runs until Monday. On April 12, 27.3 million Peruvians vote across 10,570 locations. The ONPE will deploy 49,501 fiscalizadores. Results will be published from 19:30 with updates every 15 minutes; 60% of the presidential count will be available by midnight. Ipsos will publish its boca de urna exit poll. A second round — on June 7 — is virtually certain: the last Datum poll showed Keiko at 14.5%, Álvarez at 10.9%, López Aliaga at 9.9%, with 8.7% undecided. In the Infobae tracker, Keiko led at 18.6% — but in a 35-candidate field, the margin between second and fifth place is less than three points.

Why It Matters

The 48 hours of silence that begin tonight will be the most important in Peru’s recent political history. With 35 candidates, the electoral arithmetic is extraordinary: a candidate polling at 8-9% has a plausible path to the second round. The Sánchez-Antauro Castillista alliance represents the possibility that Peru replays the 2021 trauma — a Keiko-vs-radical-left polarisation that paralysed governance for two years. The ceasefire helps Peru as a net oil importer: lower fuel costs ease inflation and improve the fiscal position for whoever wins. But no one is talking about macro. This election is about fragmentation, democratic fatigue (four presidents in five years), and whether Peru’s political system can produce a government capable of completing a term. As Bloomberg Línea noted, Peru and Colombia’s elections will determine whether the regional right-wing consolidation continues. Saturday night’s results will tell us if that thesis holds or fractures.

RISK: CRITICAL

Brazil: IBOV Smashes Second Consecutive Record at 195,129 — Real Hits Two-Year High as Petrobras Recovers R$20 Billion

IBOV +1.52% to 195,129.25; intraday ATH 195,513.91; 2nd consecutive record; RSI 56-69; USD/BRL −0.85% to 5.0573 — lowest since April 2024; PETR4 +2.77% to R$47.90 — recovered R$20B market value; 83,600 trades; Brent rebounded +1.23% to $95.92 on ceasefire doubt; Petrobras neutralised GLP auction (returned price difference to distributors); signed US$450M deal to reacquire 100% of Tartaruga Verde/Espadarte from Petronas (55,000 bpd); asked Ibama for Foz do Amazonas drilling permit (3 wells, Morpho block); AGM Apr 16 in 6 days; Hapvida +4.74% on sale speculation

What Happened

• —The records: The Ibovespa extended its rally to a second consecutive all-time high, closing at 195,129.25 (+1.52%) after touching an intraday record of 195,513.91. The index has now gained over 3.6% in two sessions — the ceasefire rally compounded by structural carry-trade flows and foreign capital attracted by Brazil’s combination of high yields and low geopolitical exposure. USD/BRL fell to 5.0573 — the lowest level since April 2024 — as the real continued to strengthen on rate differentials and commodity tailwinds. A Stonex analyst noted that Brazil’s “lower exposure to the Middle East conflict increases the country’s appeal for investors seeking returns with less geopolitical risk.”
• —Petrobras reversal: After losing approximately R$27.9 billion in market value on Wednesday’s oil crash, PETR4 recovered R$20 billion on Thursday, surging 2.77% to R$47.90 — the most traded stock on the B3 with 83,600 transactions and R$2.6 billion in turnover. The reversal was driven by Brent’s rebound to $95.92 (+1.23%) as markets priced growing scepticism about the ceasefire’s durability. By April 9, there was no sign that Iran’s Hormuz blockade was being lifted — ships continued to be prevented from transiting the strait, and Tehran accused Washington and Israel of violating the Lebanon ceasefire. The oil market is now trading the spread between ceasefire hope and implementation reality.
• —Petrobras corporate: Three significant moves in 24 hours. First, the board approved the neutralisation of the controversial GLP auction from March 31, returning the price difference between the auction bids and the ANP’s import parity price to distributors — a direct capitulation to Lula’s pressure over markups he called “bandidagem.” Second, the company signed a US$450 million deal to reacquire 50% of the Tartaruga Verde and Espadarte Module III fields from Petronas, returning to 100% ownership of assets producing approximately 55,000 barrels per day. Third, Petrobras asked Ibama for authorisation to drill three contingent wells at the Morpho prospect in Foz do Amazonas — reigniting the environmental controversy over oil exploration near the Amazon River mouth. The AGM on April 16 — where Mello’s chairmanship, dividends, and the capital budget will be decided — is now six days away.

Why It Matters

The IBOV at 195,129 with the real at its strongest in two years represents a remarkable positioning: Brazil is simultaneously the emerging market beneficiary of the ceasefire (through carry trade and reduced geopolitical risk premium) and the emerging market most exposed to its failure (through Petrobras revenue at $96 Brent versus $60 pre-war). The Petrobras corporate moves tell the entire governance story: the GLP neutralisation shows political control over pricing decisions; the Tartaruga Verde acquisition shows operational competence; the Foz do Amazonas request shows strategic ambition. All three will be interrogated at the April 16 AGM. The question for investors is whether Lula’s dual mandate — fuel price stability for October elections AND shareholder returns through dividends — is compatible at $96 Brent. Analysts see generous dividends in 2026 if oil stays elevated; political logic suggests the priority is consumer prices. That tension is the AGM’s core drama.

RISK: ELEVATED

Regional Snapshot

Markets at a Glance — Thursday April 9 Close

All equity and FX data from TradingView Tier 0 charts timestamped Apr 10, 06:11-06:13 UTC (riotimesonline account) — reflecting Thursday April 9 closes. Argentina from Infobae/Página 12/El Cronista/El Economista/InfoRegión/EFE. Peru from Gestión/Infobae/El Comercio/Andina/La República. Brazil from Money Times/Investidor10/Seu Dinheiro/Petrobras Agência. Colombia from La República CO/El Colombiano/El Espectador/Bloomberg Línea. Ceasefire from Al Jazeera/Time/Wikipedia. Previous Pulse editions.

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