Rio Times Markets · The Week Ahead
Key Facts
- Brazil rate Copom, the central bank’s rate committee, is expected to cut its rate by 0.25 points to 13.50% on Wednesday 4 November.
- Mexico rate Banxico, Mexico’s central bank, decides on Thursday 5 November with its rate at 6.50%.
- US votes The US midterm elections are on Tuesday 3 November, and the US jobs report follows on Friday 6 November.
- Markets shut Stock markets in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia are closed on Monday 2 November for holidays.
- Data Peru’s inflation and Chile’s economic activity open the week on Monday; Chile’s inflation closes it on Friday.
- Prediction markets Polymarket, a prediction-market platform, prices a Brazil rate hold at 81.2% and a Mexico hold at 90.0% (1 November, 3:05 a.m. EST).
The week turns on two central bank decisions and one US election. The US jobs report closes it.
Latin American investors face a week of two central banks and one US election. Brazil’s central bank decides on Wednesday and Mexico’s on Thursday, while the US votes on Tuesday and publishes its jobs report on Friday.
Stock markets in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia are closed on Monday 2 November for holidays, so Tuesday is their first trading day. Country choice matters more than a regional trend, because Brazil is cutting interest rates while Mexico has held its rate at 6.50%.
Three Things to Watch
Brazil’s rate cut. Copom has cut five times in 2026 and the rate stands at 13.75%. The central bank’s weekly Focus survey of economists showed a median of 13.50% for this meeting on 23 October.
Mexico’s pause. Banxico held its rate at 6.50% on 24 September, its third hold in a row. Polymarket traders price another hold on Thursday at 90.0%.
The US vote and jobs. The US elects a new Congress on Tuesday 3 November, and the October jobs report follows on Friday 6 November. US unemployment was 4.2% in September.
The Week, Day by Day
Monday, November 2, 2026
The day opens with Peru’s inflation rate and Chile’s economic activity (the Imacec, a monthly index of output). Stock markets in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia are shut for All Souls’ Day or All Saints’ Day holidays.
| Region | Time | Country | Event | Cons. | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LatAm | Morning, Lima | Peru | Inflation Rate (Lima, annual, %) | 4.6 | 4.55 |
| LatAm | 11.30 am | Chile | Economic Activity (Imacec, annual, %) | -2 | -1 |
| US | 3.00 pm | United States | ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Manufacturing PMI | 54.7 | 54.5 |
Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Factory surveys from Brazil, Mexico and Colombia (purchasing managers’ index, or PMI) and Mexico’s business confidence lead the data. The United States holds its midterm elections, which decide control of Congress.
| Region | Time | Country | Event | Cons. | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LatAm | 1.00 pm | Brazil | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 43 | 44.8 |
| LatAm | 12.00 pm | Mexico | Business Confidence | 48.2 | 48 |
| LatAm | 3.00 pm | Mexico | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | 50.3 |
| LatAm | 3.00 pm | Colombia | Davivienda (a Colombian bank) Manufacturing PMI | 54.2 | 54.6 |
| LatAm | 5.00 pm | Paraguay | Inflation Rate (annual, %) | 1.8 | 1.7 |
Wednesday, November 4, 2026
Brazil’s central bank decides on interest rates at 9.30 pm UTC (6.30 pm in Brasília), with the Focus median at a cut to 13.50% from 13.75%. Earlier come Brazil’s net formal jobs report and ADP, a US payroll processor, with its private jobs report.
| Region | Time | Country | Event | Cons. | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LatAm | 5.30 pm | Brazil | Net Formal Jobs (thousand) | 180 | 165.83 |
| LatAm | 9.30 pm | Brazil | Interest Rate Decision (%) | 13.5 | 13.75 |
| LatAm | 12.00 pm | Mexico | Consumer Confidence | 45 | 45.1 |
| US | 1.15 pm | United States | ADP Employment Change (thousand) | 65 | 90 |
| US | 1.30 pm | United States | Balance of Trade (US$ billion) | -107.6 | -105.6 |
| US | 3.00 pm | United States | ISM Services PMI | 54.8 | 54.9 |
| Europe | 8.30 am | Sweden | Riksbank (Sweden’s central bank) Interest Rate Decision (%) | — | 1.75 |
Thursday, November 5, 2026
Banxico decides on interest rates at 7.00 pm UTC (1 pm in Mexico City), with the rate at 6.5% before the decision. Earlier comes Brazil’s composite PMI, a survey of factory and service activity, and the Bank of England also decides at noon UTC.
| Region | Time | Country | Event | Cons. | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LatAm | 11.00 am | Uruguay | Inflation Rate (annual, %) | 4.8 | 4.68 |
| LatAm | 1.00 pm | Brazil | S&P Global Composite PMI | 46.9 | 47.4 |
| LatAm | 7.00 pm | Mexico | Banxico Interest Rate Decision (%) | — | 6.5 |
| LatAm | 10.00 pm | Colombia | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | — | — |
| US | 1.30 pm | United States | Initial Jobless Claims (thousand) | 197 | 194 |
| Europe | 9.00 am | Norway | Norges Bank (Norway’s central bank) Interest Rate Decision (%) | — | 4.5 |
| Europe | 12.00 pm | United Kingdom | Bank of England (the UK central bank) Interest Rate Decision (%) | — | 3.75 |
Friday, November 6, 2026
The US unemployment rate, with a prior reading of 4.2%, and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey close the week. In Latin America, Chile’s inflation, Brazil’s trade balance and Colombia’s producer prices are due.
| Region | Time | Country | Event | Cons. | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LatAm | 11.00 am | Chile | Inflation Rate (annual, %) | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| LatAm | 6.00 pm | Brazil | Balance of Trade (US$ billion) | 7.6 | 7.74 |
| LatAm | 7.00 pm | Colombia | Producer Price Index (annual, %) | 2.9 | 2.2 |
| US | 1.30 pm | United States | Unemployment Rate (%) | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| US | 3.00 pm | United States | University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 47.3 | 48 |
All times UTC, on the twelve-hour clock. Consensus and prior as published by the data provider, except Brazil’s rate, where the consensus is the central bank’s Focus median; a dash means no forecast was published.
What Prediction Markets Say
Brazil’s rate (Polymarket): no change 81.2% and a 25-basis-point cut 18.5%, with about US$123,000 traded. That differs from the Focus survey median, which expects a cut to 13.50%, so traders and economists disagree.
Mexico’s rate (Polymarket): no change 90.0% and a 25-basis-point cut 10.2%, with about US$176,000 traded. These prices are real-money bets, not polls, read at 3:05 a.m. US Eastern Standard Time on Sunday 1 November 2026.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
The Week in Context
Brazil is cutting interest rates while Mexico is on hold, so the region’s two largest economies are moving in different directions. Both decisions come in the same week as the US midterm elections.
Lima’s annual inflation was 4.55% in September and Chile’s national rate was 4.1%, so Monday’s and Friday’s reports show whether price pressure is easing. Brazil, Mexico and Colombia reopen their stock markets on Tuesday after the holiday.
The Bottom Line
Mark three dates: the US vote on Tuesday, Brazil’s decision on Wednesday and Mexico’s on Thursday. The wording of both central banks’ statements will show whether the next move is another cut or a pause.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most important event for Brazil this week?
Brazil’s central bank decides on interest rates on Wednesday 4 November at 9.30 pm UTC. The central bank’s Focus survey median expects a cut to 13.50% from 13.75%.
Why does the US jobs report matter for Latin America?
A strong jobs report would lift the dollar and US bond yields, which makes dollar borrowing costlier and can weigh on Latin American currencies. The report is due on Friday 6 November.
Which Latin American data could surprise markets?
Peru’s inflation and Chile’s economic activity on Monday, Brazil’s factory survey on Tuesday and Chile’s inflation on Friday. Each can shift expectations for local interest rates.
Are Latin American stock markets open on Monday 2 November?
No. Brazil’s B3 and Mexico’s BMV stock exchanges are closed, Colombia has a public holiday, and trading resumes on Tuesday 3 November.
Sources: RT economic calendar (consensus and prior values), Banco Central do Brasil (Copom calendar and Focus survey of 23 October 2026), Banxico decision calendar, B3 and BMV trading calendars, US Bureau of Labor Statistics release schedule, Bank of England and Riksbank calendars, Polymarket (a prediction-market platform where users bet real money, 3:05 a.m. US Eastern Standard Time, 1 November 2026). This is news, not investment advice.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief