LatAm and Africa Football Odds, Weekend of 31 Oct

Prediction Markets: Football

Brazil’s Palmeiras are 64% favourites to win South America’s biggest club trophy, the Copa Libertadores, when they meet Argentina’s Estudiantes de La Plata in Montevideo on Saturday 28 November. Traders set that price with real money on Polymarket, a prediction exchange, and on Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

This is a quiet weekend on the pitch, so the season markets tell the story. For readers in the United States, they show how traders rate the Mexican and Brazilian clubs that draw large American followings, weeks before two continental finals.

What Prediction Markets Say

A price of 64% means a contract that pays US$1 if Palmeiras win costs about 64 US cents. Prices are bets by traders, not forecasts by The Rio Times, and they can move quickly.

Kalshi volume is counted in contracts, each worth up to US$1. Polymarket volume is in US dollars, and the prices in one market can add up to slightly more than 100% because each outcome is quoted separately.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

This Weekend’s Matches

None of this weekend’s games had a match-winner market that met our minimum of US$10,000 or 10,000 contracts traded when we checked at 5:37 am ET. The matches below are listed for context only, without prices.

Corinthians vs Mirassol, Série A

Friday 30 October, 20:00 in Brasília (7:00 pm ET), a round 33 game. Corinthians, one of Brazil’s biggest clubs, are 18th on 33 points from 32 games and sit in the relegation zone.

Mirassol, a club from the interior of São Paulo state, are 16th on 37 points from 32 games. A win would lift Corinthians to 36 points, one above Internacional, who are 17th on 35 after 33 games.

Coritiba vs Vitória, Série A

Saturday 31 October, 16:00 in Brasília (3:00 pm ET), a round 33 game moved from Thursday.Coritiba are 12th on 39 points from 32 games and Vitória 14th on 38.They are four and three points above the relegation zone, which starts at Internacional’s 35.The league’s leaders do not play again until midweek.

Flamengo play Grêmio on Wednesday 4 November at 19:30 in Brasília (5:30 pm ET), and Palmeiras play Remo on Thursday 5 November at the same time.

Liga MX and Argentina

Liga MX, Mexico’s top league, is in the final stretch of its Apertura regular season, and Fox Sports México reported on 23 October that two clubs were already out of the playoff race. We could not confirm this weekend’s full Liga MX or Argentine Liga Profesional schedule from official sources, so we do not list kickoff times for them.

Latin America Title Races

Brazil: Flamengo 70%, Palmeiras 30%

Polymarket’s Série A winner market, with US$55,957 traded, has Flamengo at 70% and Palmeiras at 30%. A week ago our reading was 62% and 33%.

The table supports the move. Flamengo lead with 73 points from 33 games, three clear of Palmeiras on 70, with five rounds left.

Flamengo have lost only four of their 33 games. A slip against Grêmio on Wednesday would test the market’s 70%.

At the bottom, Polymarket prices Remo at 97.9% and Chapecoense at 97.5% to be relegated, which matches their places at the foot of the table. Its prices for the other two relegation spots trade thinly and do not track the standings well, so we do not lean on them.

Copa Libertadores: Palmeiras 64%, Estudiantes 28%

Palmeiras reached the final by beating Fluminense 5–3 on penalties after a 2–2 aggregate draw. Estudiantes knocked out Flamengo 3–2 on penalties after two goalless draws, the second at the Maracanã in Rio.

It is a rematch of the 1968 final, which Estudiantes won for their first Libertadores title. The single match is on Saturday 28 November at the Estadio Centenario in Montevideo, Uruguay.

Polymarket, with US$39,098 traded, gives Palmeiras 64% and Estudiantes 28.1%. Kalshi, on 27,653 contracts, shows Palmeiras at 69% and Estudiantes de La Plata at 37%, which add to more than 100% because each side is quoted separately.

A week ago our reading had Palmeiras at 66.5%. Polymarket’s separate 2027 winner market has Palmeiras at 29.3% and Flamengo at 22%, on US$25,415 traded.

Copa Sudamericana: Atlético Mineiro 53%, Boca 45.5%

The Sudamericana, South America’s second-tier club cup, is a coin flip. Atlético Mineiro from Belo Horizonte face Boca Juniors of Buenos Aires on Saturday 21 November at the Estadio Metropolitano in Barranquilla, Colombia, with no kickoff time announced yet.

Polymarket has Atlético Mineiro at about 53% and Boca at 45.5%, on US$17,516 traded. A week ago Boca were the favourites at 53%, so the market has flipped.

Kalshi, on 27,963 contracts, also leans to Atlético Mineiro at 51% against 44% for Boca.

Mexico: América 28% for the Apertura

Polymarket’s Liga MX Apertura champion market, with US$122,367 traded, has América at 28%, Guadalajara (known as Chivas) at 18.5%, Cruz Azul at 17% and Toluca at 13.4%. América were at 33% a week ago.

Fox Sports México’s table of 24 October, with four matchday 14 games still to play, had América first on 27 points and Guadalajara second on 26. Toluca and Cruz Azul had 23 each.

Kalshi’s market for the next title, the Clausura in the first half of 2027, has América at 16% and Cruz Azul, Guadalajara and Santos Laguna at 11% each, on 558,243 contracts.

Argentina, Peru, Colombia and Bolivia

Kalshi’s market for Argentina’s Clausura title, on 19,519 contracts, has Boca Juniors at 27% and River Plate at 18%. Rosario is at 13% and Vélez Sarsfield, a Buenos Aires club, at 6%.

In Peru’s Liga 1, Polymarket prices the club UTC Cajamarca at 94.2% to be relegated in 2026, with FC Cajamarca at 56.5% and Deportivo Moquegua at 47%. In Colombia’s Primera A, Jaguares are 62.5%, on US$23,893 traded.

In Bolivia’s top flight, the club GV San José is at 49% and Real Tomayapo 39.5%. More than one club goes down in each league, so these prices do not add up to 100%, and all four markets are thin.

Africa

The Africa Cup of Nations 2027 is co-hosted by Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, the first edition hosted by three countries, according to the Confederation of African Football (CAF). The opening match is on Saturday 19 June 2027 and the final on Saturday 17 July 2027.

No qualifiers are played this weekend. Matchdays three and four run from Monday 9 to Tuesday 17 November, according to CAF.

Polymarket’s tournament winner market, with US$18,126 traded, has Morocco at 32.5%, Senegal at 17.1%, Algeria at 14.9%, Ivory Coast at 10.8%, South Africa at 9.5% and Egypt at 7.6%. Morocco were at 33.5% in our snapshot of 21 October.

The biggest swing is in qualifying Group H, where Uganda, one of the co-hosts, have risen from 36.2% to 45.4% to win the group, while Tunisia have fallen from 58% to 45.5%. Those changes compare with our 21 October snapshot, on US$20,836 traded.

Egypt are 68% to win Group B, ahead of Angola at 29.5%. South Africa are 68% in Group D, with Guinea at 24.5%.

Burkina Faso are 52.5% in Group F, down from 59.5%, and Benin 35%. Mali are 63% in Group K, Nigeria 54.5% in Group L, Ivory Coast 74% in Group C and Cameroon 84.5% in Group G.

Our regular odds pages are in the Latin America odds hub and the Africa odds hub. Results and fixtures are in the Latin America Sports Daily for Tuesday, October 27, 2026.

For the qualifiers, see our guide Africa Cup Qualifiers Resume on November 11.

What It Means for US Readers

Kalshi is a US-regulated exchange, so these prices show how American traders value clubs that many US fans follow, especially Mexican and Brazilian ones. The 2026 World Cup was played in the United States, Mexico and Canada, and Liga MX and Major League Soccer clubs also meet each summer in the Leagues Cup, a tournament between the two leagues.

Treat the numbers as a snapshot. A 64% price for Palmeiras still means they fail to win about one time in three.

What Is Not Known

Injuries, suspensions and line-ups for the two Série A games are not yet public. Weather and late kickoff changes can also move prices.

Kickoff times come from league and press schedules and can change.The Sudamericana final has no kickoff time yet, and many season markets have only a few thousand dollars traded, so their prices are rough guides.We will refresh them next Friday.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who do prediction markets favour in the Libertadores final?

Polymarket gives Palmeiras 64% and Estudiantes de La Plata 28.1%, and Kalshi has Palmeiras at 69%. The single match is on Saturday 28 November at the Estadio Centenario in Montevideo.

When is the Copa Sudamericana final?

Saturday 21 November at the Estadio Metropolitano in Barranquilla, Colombia, between Atlético Mineiro and Boca Juniors. Polymarket prices Atlético Mineiro at about 53% and Boca at 45.5%, and no kickoff time has been announced.

Who is favourite to win the Brazilian Série A?

Flamengo, at 70% on Polymarket against 30% for Palmeiras. Flamengo lead the table with 73 points to 70, with five rounds left.

When do the Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers resume?

Matchdays three and four run from 9 to 17 November 2026, according to CAF. The tournament in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda opens on 19 June 2027.

Are these predictions or bets?

They are prices set by real-money traders on Polymarket and Kalshi, not forecasts by The Rio Times. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and we never link to betting sites or give tips.