GUYANA · MINING
Key Facts
- What is happening A calculation published on Tuesday, 3 November puts Guyana’s take from the Toroparu gold project at about US$3 billion, from metal worth over US$21 billion at today’s prices.
- Why it matters The mine could add mining income to an oil-driven economy, but it has no mining licence yet and no declared mineral reserves.
- The numbers The company’s 2025 study, at US$3,000 gold, shows US$1.19 billion in royalties and US$2.17 billion in income tax over 21.3 years, about US$3.4 billion in all.
- Who is who Aris Mining, a Canadian gold miner, owns 100% of Toroparu; the Guyana Geology and Mines Commission, the mining regulator, must still grant the licence.
- What to watch A prefeasibility study due in the second half of 2026, a construction decision targeted for early 2027, and the grant of the mining licence.
- What it means for you US investors in gold miners should treat these figures as a preliminary estimate, not a forecast, and read the company’s own risk warnings first.
A new calculation says Guyana could collect about US$3 billion in royalties and taxes from the Toroparu gold project. The mine does not yet have a licence.
Guyana could earn about US$3 billion in royalties and taxes from the Toroparu gold project, a newspaper’s calculation says. The calculation, published on Tuesday, 3 November, values the project’s metal at over US$21 billion at current prices.
That figure is the newspaper’s own arithmetic, clearly labelled here as a calculation, not a company or government forecast. The company’s own 2025 study, which assumes US$3,000 gold, shows about US$3.4 billion for the state over 21 years.
What the Mine Study Says
Aris Mining, a Canadian gold miner, owns 100% of Toroparu in Guyana’s interior. Its preliminary economic assessment, released on Tuesday, 28 October 2025, covers 21.3 years of mining.
Over that time the plan produces 5.0 million ounces of gold, 4.9 million ounces of silver and 260 million pounds of copper. Initial construction would cost US$820 million.
At US$3,000 an ounce for gold, the study puts the after-tax value at US$1.8 billion, with a return of 25.2% a year. Aris sold gold from its operating mines at an average US$4,450 an ounce in the second quarter of 2026.
How the US$21 Billion Adds Up
At US$4,000 an ounce, the study’s 5.0 million ounces of gold alone are worth about US$20 billion. The calculation also assumes silver near US$50 an ounce and copper near US$6 a pound.
Copper adds about US$1.5 billion, as covered in Guyana Would Get US$23M of US$1.5B Copper. Silver adds a few hundred million dollars more.
This is gross metal value, before mining costs and before the stream sold to Wheaton Precious Metals, a streaming company. It is neither profit nor what Guyana would receive.
What Guyana Would Collect
The study’s US$1.19 billion in royalties is roughly 8% of its US$14.7 billion in gold sales. Income tax adds US$2.17 billion, bringing the state’s take to about US$3.4 billion over 21.3 years.
That averages about US$160 million a year, if mining runs the full 21.3 years. The new calculation’s US$3 billion is lower than the study’s US$3.4 billion, although gold now sells for more.
The two figures use different methods and cannot be compared directly. Neither comes from the government of Guyana.
Where the Project Stands
Aris said in its report of 29 July 2026 that the mining licence has not been granted. It is working with the government and the Guyana Geology and Mines Commission, the mining regulator.
Toroparu has mineral resources but no declared mineral reserves. A prefeasibility study, a more detailed engineering and cost review, is due in the second half of 2026.
The company targets a construction decision in early 2027. The 2025 study is preliminary and includes inferred resources, which are less certain.
Aris says there is no certainty the study will be realised. The project team in Guyana has grown to 100 people, and pre-construction work includes a bridge over the Puruni River.
What It Means for US Readers
Aris Mining reports to US regulators, and its filings warn that the 2025 study is preliminary, not a promise of profit. Investors in gold miners should treat the US$3 billion and US$21 billion figures as illustrations.
Guyana is better known to Americans for oil, where US companies hold large stakes. Gold and copper from Toroparu would add a second resource line, but only if the licence and construction decision come through.
Related reports: Canadian Miner Signs Guyana Gold Option and Guyana Gold Spinoff Could Earn US$200M. More is on the Guyana hub, with guides to who runs the economy and who holds power.
A wider guide is Guyana Explained. The foreign companies active in the country are covered in Foreign Powers and Investors in Guyana.
What Is Not Known
Whether and when Guyana will grant the mining licence is unknown. The terms of the 2011 agreement between the government and the company are not set out in the company’s study.
No government forecast of Toroparu income has been published, as far as the available documents show. Future prices will decide the real figures, since the study assumes US$3,000 gold.
What Comes Next
The prefeasibility study, due by the end of 2026, will update costs and returns. A construction decision is targeted for early 2027.
None of this means money will flow soon, because construction has not been approved. The state’s income would start only after mining begins.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much could Guyana earn from Toroparu?
A new calculation says about US$3 billion. The company’s 2025 study shows about US$3.4 billion over 21.3 years at US$3,000 gold, and both are estimates.
Who owns the Toroparu gold project?
Aris Mining owns 100%. A streaming deal gives Wheaton Precious Metals 10% of the gold and 50% of the silver at fixed prices.
Does Toroparu have a mining licence?
Not yet, according to Aris’s report of 29 July 2026. The company is working with the government and the mining regulator.
What is the US$21 billion figure?
It is the gross value of the gold, silver and copper in the study at today’s prices, before costs. It is not profit or government income.
When could mining at Toroparu start?
No start date is set. A prefeasibility study is due in the second half of 2026, and a construction decision is targeted for early 2027.
Why does the gold price matter for Guyana?
Royalties and taxes rise with sales. The study assumes US$3,000 an ounce, while Aris sold gold at US$4,450 in the second quarter.
Sources: Aris Mining, news release on the Toroparu preliminary economic assessment (28 October 2025, Form 6-K); Aris Mining, management discussion and analysis for the second quarter of 2026 (Form 6-K, 29 July 2026) (all accessed 3 November 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief