Nasdaq Falls 1.4% as Japan Keeps Rates | Global Economy, Oct 30
Rio Times Global Economy Briefing
The Big Three
- Wall Street slips as tech sells off The S&P 500 slipped 0.30% to 7,720 while the Nasdaq led losses with a 1.38% drop. The retreat was moderate, but it showed investors demanding fresh evidence before extending an expensive rally; the S&P 500 is about 1.3% below its 6 October closing high.
- Central-bank super-week reaches Tokyo The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) held rates this week and the Bank of Japan followed on Friday, keeping the global rate tone on hold. The dollar index softened to 101.757, making currencies and bonds unusually sensitive to guidance.
- Growth holds, inflation stays awkward US third-quarter GDP grew at an annualised 3.4%, up from 2.2%, while weekly jobless claims fell to 194,000. European data offered mixed signals, with German harmonised inflation expected near 3.1% year on year.
United States
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| US GDP Growth Rate, Q3 (annualised) | 3.4% | 2.2% | Beats 3.2% forecast |
| Initial Jobless Claims | 194,000 | 195,000 | Beats 199,000 forecast |
| Continuing Jobless Claims | 1.701m | 1.722m | Below 1.72m forecast |
| Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 196,750 | 198,000 | Edges lower |
| Core PCE Price Index (consumer prices excluding food and energy), Sep, y/y | 3.1% | 3.0% | In line with forecast |
| PCE Prices, Q3 (annualised) | 2.1% | 5.0% | Well below 3.4% forecast |
| Employment Cost Index, Q3 | 0.8% est | 0.9% | Wage pressure easing |
| Chicago PMI, October | 56.1 est | 58.8 | Activity cooling slightly |
| Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 460 prior | 460 prior | Awaiting release |
Europe & United Kingdom
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| German GDP Growth, y/y | 1.1% est | 1.0% | Modest acceleration |
| German Harmonised Inflation, y/y | 3.1% est | 3.3% | Disinflation continues |
| UK Auto Production, y/y | 38.6% | 6.1% | Sharp recovery |
Asia-Pacific & Emerging Markets
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| China NBS Manufacturing PMI, Oct (due Sat) | 50.0 est | 50.1 | Fragile expansion |
| Japan Consumer Confidence, Oct | 35 | 35.4 | Slightly below 35.1 forecast |
| Brazil Unemployment Rate | 5.2% est | 5.3% | Labour market firm |
| Mexico GDP Growth, y/y | 2.5% est | 2.1% | Momentum improving |
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,720 | -0.30% |
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 169,186 | -1.06% |
| USD/BRL | 5.3806 | +0.58% |
Source: market close, 29 October 2026.
Today’s Economic Calendar — Friday, October 30, 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:00 | JP | Monetary Policy Statement | — | — |
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report | — | — |
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts | 2.9 | 6.1 |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders | -3 | -3.6 |
| 06:30 | JP | BoJ Press Conference | — | — |
| 07:00 | DE | Import Prices | 1.8 | 1 |
| 07:00 | DE | Import Prices | 10.3 | 8.3 |
| 08:55 | DE | Unemployment Rate | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| 08:55 | DE | Unemployed Persons | 3.017 | 3.012 |
| 08:55 | DE | Employment Change | 5 | 12 |
| 09:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate | 1.1 | 1 |
| 09:00 | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI | — | 3.3 |
| 09:00 | DE | Hesse CPI | — | 0.5 |
| 09:00 | DE | Bavaria CPI | — | 0.6 |
| 09:00 | DE | Saxony CPI | — | 3.4 |
| 09:00 | DE | Brandenburg CPI | — | 0.3 |
| 09:00 | DE | Baden Wuerttemberg CPI | — | 0.6 |
Live Market IntelligenceGlobal Markets — Live Board
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Global Markets — Live Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,722 | +0.59% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | 29,646 | +1.27% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DJI | 52,367 | +0.01% | — | — | — | — | — |
| RUT | 2,814 | +0.97% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US10Y | 4.9950 | +0.18% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VIX | 17.75 | -3.48% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAX | 25,591 | +0.71% | — | — | — | — | — |
| FTSE | 10,687 | -0.75% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CAC | 7,887 | +0.51% | — | — | — | — | — |
| STOXX | 643.68 | +0.47% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIKKEI | 63,268 | +1.73% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HSI | 23,041 | -0.23% | — | — | — | — | — |
| KOSPI | 5,638 | +3.09% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CSI300 | 4,050 | -1.32% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIFTY | 22,750 | +0.66% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSX | 36,123 | +0.50% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOLD | 4,073 | +0.85% | +1.32% | 4,038 | 4,079 | 4,002 | 117,083 |
| SILVER | 54.49 | +0.70% | +17.02% | 54.11 | 54.64 | 52.71 | 34,428 |
01 The rally meets gravity
US equities gave back a slice of their advance as the Nasdaq fell 1.38% to 26,185. The VIX ticked up to 17.2, signalling a mild rise in hedging demand even as the S&P 500 held about 1.3% below its 6 October closing high.
For Latin America, the softer dollar index at 101.757 is a small relief. But the 4.938% ten-year Treasury yield remains high enough to keep global liquidity tight, pressuring the real and local risk assets.
02 The Fed’s room to wait
The Employment Cost Index is expected at 0.8%, down from 0.9%, suggesting wage inflation is cooling. Combined with firm GDP growth, that gave the Federal Reserve room to hold rates at 3.75%–4% on Wednesday; two members voted for a quarter-point rise instead.
For Brazil, the transmission is financial rather than rhetorical. A patient Fed keeps US real yields elevated, limiting room for Banco Central do Brasil to ease Selic aggressively without inviting renewed pressure on the currency.
03 Tokyo closes the policy relay
The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 1.25% on Friday by an 8–1 vote and said it will sell its stock-market fund holdings (ETFs) faster from January 2027. The ECB also kept its three key rates unchanged on Thursday, by unanimous decision.
Markets now watch the yen, Japanese yields and any signal about future normalisation. European data show growth continuing but unevenly, while German inflation is expected to slow to 3.1%.
Japan’s consumer confidence index came in at 35 against 35.1 expected (previous 35.4). Japan’s retail sales, industrial production and Tokyo core inflation data, and Brazil’s September net payrolls (consensus 180,000, August 165,827), were not yet in our calendar feed at publication.
Also on Thursday, the US core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, held at 3.1% year on year as forecast, and quarterly PCE prices rose 2.1% annualised against 3.4% expected (BEA).Investors in Latin America should watch the dollar more closely than headline equity moves.A durable US-yield rebound would tighten regional financial conditions, raise Brazil’s imported-inflation risk and keep fiscal credibility central to the Selic outlook.
What to watch today and this week
- Thursday (done): US Q3 GDP at 3.4%, weekly jobless claims at 194,000, ECB holds rates.
- Friday: BoJ held at 1.25% (8–1 vote); due today: euro-area GDP, US Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, German inflation, Brazil unemployment, Colombia rate decision.
- Next week: US ISM manufacturing PMI (2 November), ISM services PMI and Brazil’s central bank decision (4 November), US jobs report (6 November).
- Ongoing: Dollar, US 10-year yield, Brazilian real, Selic expectations, Colombia monetary policy direction.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did US stocks fall?
Profit-taking in technology, with tech leading the Nasdaq down 1.38% as investors reassessed valuations.
What did the Fed decide?
The Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00% on 28 October by a 10-2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferring a quarter-point rise.
Why does the Bank of Japan matter globally?
Any signal of tighter Japanese policy can affect the yen, global bond yields and carry trades, including flows into Latin America.
What is the Brazil read-through tonight?
A softer dollar helps the real, but the 4.938% ten-year Treasury yield still constrains Banco Central do Brasil’s room to cut Selic.
What are the key signals for Friday?
euro-area GDP, German inflation, US Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, and Colombia’s interest rate decision.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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