Fed Holds US Rate as S&P 500 Gains 0.3% | Global Economy, Oct 29
Rio Times Global Economy Briefing
The Big Three
- Fed delivers a hawkish hold The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate at 3.75%-4% in a 10-2 vote, described activity as expanding at a “strong pace” and said inflation remains elevated. That keeps the dollar-and-yields channel difficult for Brazil, limiting room for Selic easing.
- AI optimism meets an earnings test The S&P 500 closed at 7,744, up 0.28%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.27%. The market’s next move depends on whether big technology earnings justify the enormous investment behind the AI boom.
- Oil and central banks complicate the risk mood Brent crude ended Wednesday at about US$110.35 a barrel, up 0.6%. The Bank of Canada raised its rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%.
United States
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed interest rate decision (target range) | 3.75%-4.00% | 3.75%-4.00% | Held; inflation still elevated |
| Fed vote | 10-2 | — | Two dissents favoured a hike |
| US Goods Trade Balance (Sep) | -US$134.90bn | -US$132.07bn | Wider than expected |
| EIA (US Energy Information Administration) crude oil stocks change (Cushing storage hub: -0.624m bbl) | -1.892m bbl | -3.060m bbl | Larger draw than forecast |
Europe & United Kingdom
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Euro-zone M3 money supply (broad money, Sep, year on year) | +3.5% | +3.5% | Credit steady |
Asia-Pacific & Emerging Markets
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of Canada rate | 2.5% | 2.25% | Raised 25bp |
| South Korea KOSPI (main stock index) | 6,012.44 | +6.6% | SK Hynix and AI led rally |
| Brazil PPI (Sep, y/y) | 4.34% | 2.5% | Strong beat |
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,744 | +0.28% |
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 171,006 | -2.68% |
| USD/BRL | 5.3498 | +0.07% |
Source: market close, 28 October 2026.
Today’s Economic Calendar — Thursday, October 29, 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:35 | JP | 3-Month Bill Auction | — | 1.268 |
| 03:35 | JP | 2-Year JGB Auction | — | 1.964 |
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35.1 | 35.4 |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy | 2.7 | 3 |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales | 3.3 | 2.7 |
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation | 1.6 | 1.57 |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending | 1 | 0.5 |
| 12:00 | CL | Unemployment Rate | 9.5 | 9.6 |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index | 3.5 | 6.1 |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 194 |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1720 | 1728 |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197 | 197.75 |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices | 3.4 | 5 |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index | 3.1 | 3 |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate | 3.2 | 2.2 |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales (Q3) | 3.5 | 2.8 |
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Global Markets — Live Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,722 | +0.59% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | 29,646 | +1.27% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DJI | 52,367 | +0.01% | — | — | — | — | — |
| RUT | 2,814 | +0.97% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US10Y | 4.9950 | +0.18% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VIX | 17.75 | -3.48% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAX | 25,591 | +0.71% | — | — | — | — | — |
| FTSE | 10,687 | -0.75% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CAC | 7,887 | +0.51% | — | — | — | — | — |
| STOXX | 643.68 | +0.47% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIKKEI | 63,268 | +1.73% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HSI | 23,041 | -0.23% | — | — | — | — | — |
| KOSPI | 5,638 | +3.09% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CSI300 | 4,050 | -1.32% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIFTY | 22,750 | +0.66% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSX | 36,123 | +0.50% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOLD | 4,073 | +0.85% | +1.32% | 4,038 | 4,079 | 4,002 | 117,083 |
| SILVER | 54.49 | +0.70% | +17.02% | 54.11 | 54.64 | 52.71 | 34,428 |
01 The pause that still tightens
The Fed did not move rates, but the message was hardly soft: activity was described as expanding at a “strong pace”, inflation remains elevated, and two officials wanted a hike. That combination explains the firmer 10-year Treasury yield at 5.021% and leaves investors paying more attention to the possibility of another increase than to a near-term cut.
For Latin America, the transmission is direct. A resilient US economy and high US yields support the dollar, raise the hurdle for Brazilian rate cuts and make a weaker real more likely if domestic fiscal concerns return.
02 AI’s golden glow meets the spreadsheet
The AI trade is broadening beyond US megacaps: South Korea’s KOSPI surged 6.6%, as chipmaker SK Hynix reported quarterly results. Yet the Nasdaq gained only 0.27% in New York, so sentiment still leans on strong earnings.
The same tension matters for emerging markets. Strong semiconductor demand can lift Asian exporters and commodity-linked currencies, but higher US yields can overpower that benefit for Brazil’s real and local assets.
This is the central tension for LatAm investors: global tech strength versus the dollar’s pull.
03 Oil reopens the inflation file
Brent crude ended Wednesday at about US$110.35 a barrel, up 0.6%. Oil at that level keeps inflation concerns alive for central banks, even though the US dollar index slipped to 102.139.
For Brazil, higher oil supports export receipts and Petrobras-linked flows, but it also complicates the inflation outlook and the Selic path. The real’s immediate driver remains the contest between domestic credibility and the global dollar.
Brazil’s IGP-M inflation reading, due this morning, is the next domestic test.
What to watch today and this week
- Thursday: European Central Bank rate decision, plus US GDP, inflation (PCE) and jobless claims; global markets digest the Fed’s hawkish hold.
- Friday: Bank of Japan policy decision; follow Treasury yields, the dollar and oil for the next signal on emerging-market risk appetite.
- Ongoing: Oil prices, AI capital spending and Brazil’s real-Selic-Fed sensitivity.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, gives 77.5% to another Fed rate hike in 2026 (US$1,204,689 traded) and 96.7% to no rate cut this year (US$54,995,935 traded), as of 12:03 a.m. ET on 29 October 2026. These prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the Fed decide?
It held the benchmark rate at 3.75%-4.00% in a 10-2 vote.
Why did markets read the decision as hawkish?
The Fed described activity as expanding at a “strong pace”, said inflation remains elevated and two policymakers favoured a hike.
What happened to oil?
Brent crude ended Wednesday at about US$110.35 a barrel, up 0.6%.
How does this affect Brazil?
High US yields support the dollar, limiting room for Selic easing.
What is the VIX telling us?
The VIX fell 3.48% to 16.91, suggesting investors remain calm despite the hawkish Fed tone.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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