Global Economy Briefing: November 14, 2025

A quiet Friday on headlines delivered an important undercurrent: food and goods prices are falling hard in India and easing in Europe, global trade in the euro area looks healthier, and Canada’s factories are finally pushing back after a weak summer.

Energy markets stayed well supplied, suggesting that, for now, inflation pressures are shifting from commodities to services and wages rather than the other way round.

United States

Hard data were light, but the energy backdrop stayed comfortable. Natural gas storage rose by 45 billion cubic feet, more than expected, cushioning winter price risks.

Oil service firm Baker Hughes reported 417 active oil rigs and 549 total rigs in the U.S., both slightly higher, signaling that producers are willing to maintain, not slash, capacity at current prices.

Fed officials, including Raphael Bostic and Lorie Logan, focused markets back on the question that matters most for 2026: how long policy needs to stay “restrictive” in a world where inflation is falling but not yet beaten.

Europe & UK

The euro area painted a nuanced picture of “good” disinflation and modest growth. In France, headline inflation slipped to 0.9% year on year, with HICP at 0.8%, well below peaks seen in 2022–23.

Spain is hotter, with CPI at 3.1% and HICP at 3.2%, but still far from crisis territory. At the bloc level, GDP grew 0.2% in the third quarter and 1.4% year on year, while employment edged up 0.1% q/q.

The trade surplus widened sharply to €19.4 billion in September, helped by a stronger Italian surplus.

The European Central Bank can read this as validation of its pause: growth is subdued, price pressures are easing, but services and core inflation at 2.5% keep cuts on a cautious timetable.

Asia

India delivered one of the day’s most striking numbers: wholesale inflation fell to -1.21% year on year, driven by food prices down 8.3% and softer manufacturing pressures.

Fuel costs were modestly negative. At the same time, bank loans still grew 11.3% and deposits 9.7%, with FX reserves just below $690 billion.

For global investors, that combination—falling food prices, strong credit, thick reserves—means India remains a growth story with less inflation risk than a year ago

Hong Kong’s economy stayed on a stable path, with GDP up 0.7% q/q and 3.8% y/y for a second straight quarter.

Major Emerging Markets and Canada

Brazil’s IGP-10 wholesale index rose 0.2% in November after 0.1%, a gentle reminder that local price shocks can reappear even as global goods disinflation helps.

Canada’s September rebound was more dramatic: manufacturing sales jumped 3.3% m/m and wholesale sales 0.6% after declines in August, suggesting that North American industry is not rolling over yet.

Commodities & Flows

Larger gas builds, stable rig counts, and a bigger euro area trade surplus all point to a world where supply constraints are easing and energy is no longer the main inflation villain.

Risks and Framing

The story behind the story: food and factory-gate prices are now doing the heavy lifting in the global disinflation narrative, especially in India and Europe. What remains uncertain is whether services and wage dynamics will cooperate.

For readers outside these markets, the key signals are India’s continued price relief, Europe’s trade resilience, and North America’s industrial bounce—they will shape how fast central banks dare to pivot from “high for longer” to “gently lower.”

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