Global Economy Briefing: November 12, 2025

A data-rich Wednesday reinforced a two-track global story: inflation is edging down or stable in Europe, domestic demand pockets are holding up across Asia-Pacific, and North American demand looks cautious but steady.

Risk-free curves eased at the U.S. 10-year auction, while oil balances looked less tight than last week. Emerging-market signals were mixed: Brazil’s services expanded but FX flows turned negative; South Africa’s fiscal gap widened.

United States

Mortgage conditions softened only slightly: the 30-year rate ticked up to 6.34%, but applications rose 0.6% with a stronger purchase index. Consumer mood cooled (IPSOS PCSI 51.31).

A well-received 10-year auction tailed at 4.074% (below the prior 4.117%), and API reported a modest crude build (+1.3M). Fed speakers stayed in “data-dependent” mode.

Canada

Building permits jumped 4.5% m/m after a prior drop, pointing to resilience in construction pipelines. Confidence eased (IPSOS PCSI 47.44) as markets awaited the BoC’s Summary of Deliberations for color on the policy path.

Europe and UK

German inflation was steady: CPI and HICP rose 0.3% m/m and ran 2.3% y/y, wholesale prices firmed 0.3% m/m, and the current account widened to €18.6B—an export-surplus signal.

Italy’s industrial production rebounded sharply (+2.8% m/m; +1.5% y/y). Sovereign funding was orderly (Italy 12-month BOT 2.063%; Germany 30-year 3.26%).

The composite picture: disinflation with improving hard data, giving the ECB leeway to pause while watching growth.

Latin America and Africa

Brazil’s services activity rose 0.6% m/m and 4.1% y/y, but weekly FX flows flipped negative (−$1.786B) and sentiment slipped (IPSOS PCSI 52.78).

Mexico’s sentiment cooled as well (IPSOS PCSI 51.72). South Africa’s fiscal deficit widened (−ZAR 352.4B; −4.8%), underscoring consolidation challenges.

Asia-Pacific

Japan’s capex pulse brightened (machine tool orders +16.8% y/y), producer inflation was contained (PPI 2.7% y/y), and investors rotated into JGBs (5-year auction 1.245%) even as flows showed buying of foreign bonds and selling of equities.

Australia printed a strong jobs gain (+42.2k) with unemployment down to 4.3% and full-time hiring +55.3k; inflation expectations eased to 4.5%.

New Zealand’s card spending and inbound migration improved. India’s CPI print fell sharply to 0.25% y/y with money growth at 9.3%—a notably disinflationary reading that, if sustained, expands policy space.

What it means

Bond markets see cooling inflation without a growth cliff: lower auction yields in the U.S. and steady euro-area prints support “holds,” not rapid cuts.

Asia’s labor and demand signals are a ballast for global growth, while Europe’s industrial rebound pockets argue against a hard-landing narrative.

Watch Brazil’s FX outflows and South Africa’s fiscal drift—both can widen risk premia if persistent.

Portfolio tilt: favor quality duration over deep cyclicals, services and domestic-demand plays over export-heavy names, and EMs with clean external balances over those with fiscal leakage.

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