Global Economy Briefing: November 17, 2025

A mixed Monday showed firmer U.S. manufacturing sentiment, softer Swiss growth, cooler Italian inflation, and a sharply wider Indian trade gap.

Funding costs nudged up at short U.S. bill auctions, while Canada’s inflation mix stayed close to—but not squarely at—the Bank of Canada’s target band midpoint.

United States

The Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped to 18.7, signaling a rebound in regional factory sentiment. August construction spending was revised steady at 0.2% m/m.

Treasury bill auctions cleared a touch higher (3-month 3.795%, 6-month 3.710%). Fed speakers kept to a data-dependent script.

Canada

October headline CPI slowed to 2.2% y/y, while core details were stickier: core CPI ran 2.9%–3.0% y/y and 0.6% m/m.

Canadians and foreigners both bought sizable amounts of securities in September (Canadians $22.12B abroad; foreign inflows $31.32B), pointing to healthy market intermediation but an inflation picture that argues for BoC caution rather than swift easing.

Europe

Italy’s disinflation deepened (CPI 1.2% y/y; HICP 1.3%), and October monthly prints were negative. Germany’s 12-month Bubill yield edged up to 1.937%.

Switzerland’s industrial production grew 2.4% y/y, but Q3 GDP fell −0.5% q/q, underscoring weaker domestic momentum.

Norway’s trade surplus widened to NOK 56.5B, consistent with still-supportive terms of trade.

Latin America

Brazil’s IBC-Br activity proxy slipped −0.20% m/m in September after a prior gain, hinting at slower quarter-end momentum even as inflation recently softened.

Asia-Pacific

India’s trade deficit ballooned to $41.68B as imports rose to $76.06B and exports eased to $34.38B—an unfavorable mix for near-term current-account dynamics.

Elsewhere, scheduled central-bank communications (ECB, RBA) were in focus with limited new signals.

What it means

The global picture remains two-speed. U.S. activity data can still surprise to the upside, keeping the Fed patient on cuts and anchoring front-end yields.

Canada’s headline inflation progress is encouraging, but sticky core and hot monthly core caution against early BoC easing.

Europe’s inflation relief is clearer (Italy), yet growth signals are uneven (Swiss GDP contraction), implying “hold, then gradual” for the ECB and SNB.

India’s widened trade gap is a watch-point for the rupee and imported-inflation risk if sustained.

For markets, the mix favors quality duration over deep cyclicals, FX resilience in surplus/commodity-backed stories (e.g., Norway), and selectivity across EM—preferring economies with improving external balances and disinflation credibility.

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