Global Economy Briefing: US Confidence Falls to Lowest Since 2014
Global economy briefing: US consumer confidence hit its lowest since 2014, yields held near 5.25%, oil fell 2.6% and Brazil's jobs data beat. Today: US PCE.
Rio Times Global Economy Briefing
The Big Three
- US consumer confidence falls to its lowest since 2014 The Conference Board index dropped to 81.9 in September from 88.6, far below the 89.2 forecast. Job openings also slipped to 7.08 million. Yet the 10-year Treasury yield held near 5.25%, and New York Fed President John Williams said one more rate rise “may be appropriate late this year”.
- Oil falls, gold rebounds Brent crude settled 2.6% lower at US$102.59 a barrel as Middle East exports showed signs of recovering. Gold regained 1.39% to about US$4,185 an ounce after Monday’s sharp fall.
- Brazil’s jobs data beat, the real firms Brazil added 165,827 formal jobs in August, almost double the forecast, and unemployment held at 5.3%. The IGP-M price index rose 1.57% in September. The real gained 0.45% to 5.2019 per US dollar and the Ibovespa rose 0.46%.
Tuesday’s data, one by one
Monday’s briefing told readers to watch Fed speakers, US job openings and consumer confidence, and Brazil’s IGP-M and unemployment data on Tuesday. All of them came out. Here is each release, with the market reaction.
United States
| Indicator | Actual | Forecast | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conference Board consumer confidence, September | 81.9 | 89.2 | 88.6 | Lowest since April 2014 |
| JOLTS job openings, August | 7.08m | 7.23m | 7.34m (July) | Hiring demand cools |
| JOLTS quits, August | 3.07m | 3.00m | 3.09m | Little changed |
| FHFA house prices, July (y/y) | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | Slightly firmer |
| Dallas Fed services activity, September | −1.8 | 1.0 | 4.2 | Back in contraction |
The confidence slump was the big surprise. The Conference Board’s gauge fell 6.7 points to its lowest level since April 2014, with the expectations index at 63.6. Job openings eased to 7.08 million from 7.34 million in July (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Stocks barely reacted: the S&P 500 slipped 0.17% and the 10-year Treasury yield ended at 5.249%, little changed. Of the Fed speakers, New York Fed President John Williams said “there is no need for urgency” after the September hike, but that “one further upward adjustment of the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year”. Governor Christopher Waller spoke on payments and artificial-intelligence agents, not on rates.
Europe & Asia
| Indicator | Actual | Forecast | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro area economic sentiment, September | 97.9 | 99.0 | 98.4 | Softer than expected |
| Euro area consumer confidence, September (final) | −16.5 | −16.5 | −15.5 | In line |
| Euro area industry confidence, September | −3.8 | −4.7 | −5.0 | Better than expected |
| Japan industrial production, August (m/m) | −1.7% | +1.7% | −0.2% | Big miss |
| Japan retail sales, August (y/y) | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% | Slower |
The European Commission’s survey showed weaker sentiment in September but better readings in industry. Japan’s August factory output fell 1.7% on the month against a forecast rise of 1.7%, a clear miss released late on Tuesday (UTC).
Latin America
| Indicator | Actual | Forecast | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil formal jobs (Caged), August | +165,827 | +95,700 | +58,570 | Strong beat |
| Brazil unemployment (PNAD), June–August | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | In line |
| Brazil IGP-M, September (m/m) | 1.57% | 1.60% | −0.22% | Rebound; 3.34% over 12 months |
| Brazil bank lending, August (m/m) | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | In line |
| Argentina current account, Q2 | US$2.21bn surplus | US$0.2bn deficit | US$2.41bn deficit (Q1, revised) | Swing to surplus |
Brazil’s labour market stayed tight: the Labour Ministry’s Caged count showed 165,827 net formal jobs in August, and IBGE’s unemployment rate held at 5.3%. FGV’s IGP-M wholesale-heavy price index jumped 1.57% after a 0.22% fall in August. The real firmed 0.45% to 5.2019 per US dollar and the Ibovespa gained 0.46%. In Argentina, INDEC reported a second-quarter current-account surplus of US$2.21 billion, driven by record exports.
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,671 | -0.17% |
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 183,828 | +0.46% |
| USD/BRL | 5.2019 | -0.45% |
Source: RT live market data, close of Tuesday 29 September 2026.
Today’s Economic Calendar — Wednesday, September 30, 2026
Times in UTC (Brasília is UTC−3). China’s official PMIs are already out: manufacturing 50.1 (forecast 50.1, prior 49.8) and non-manufacturing 50.2 (forecast 49.3, prior 49.0), both back above the 50 line that separates growth from contraction.
| Time (UTC) | Country | Event | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation, September flash (y/y) | 2.8% | 2.4% |
| 07:55 | DE | Unemployment rate, September | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| 11:30 | BR | Central bank fiscal data: primary balance, net and gross debt, August | Gross debt 83.1% of GDP | 82.5% |
| 12:00 | BR | Producer prices, August (m/m) | −0.4% | −0.83% |
| 12:00 | CL | Unemployment rate, June–August | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| 12:00 | CL | Retail sales, August (y/y) | 2.0% | 2.2% |
| 12:00 | DE | Inflation, September flash (y/y) | 3.2% | 2.9% |
| 12:15 | US | ADP private payrolls, September | 70k | 38k |
| 12:30 | US | PCE price index, August (y/y) | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE price index, August (y/y) | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| 12:30 | US | Personal spending, August (m/m) | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 12:30 | US | GDP, Q2 third estimate (annualised) | 1.5% | — |
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI, September | 51.2 | 47.1 |
| 14:30 | US | EIA crude inventories, week to 25 September | — | +2.97m bbl |
| 15:00 | CO | Unemployment rate, August | 8.1% | 8.1% |
| 18:00 | CO | Banco de la República rate decision | 12.00% | 12.00% |
| 23:50 | JP | BoJ Tankan, large manufacturers, Q3 | 25 | 22 |
Live Market IntelligenceGlobal Markets — Live Board
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Global Markets — Live Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,751 | +0.29% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | 29,799 | +0.93% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DJI | 53,810 | +0.03% | — | — | — | — | — |
| RUT | 3,041 | +0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US10Y | 4.6760 | -0.17% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VIX | 14.60 | -4.45% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAX | 26,331 | -0.23% | — | — | — | — | — |
| FTSE | 10,833 | -0.10% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CAC | 8,675 | -0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| STOXX | 659.48 | -0.16% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIKKEI | 67,524 | +0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HSI | 25,440 | -0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| KOSPI | 6,579 | +3.68% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CSI300 | 4,691 | +0.58% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIFTY | 24,436 | -0.15% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSX | 36,619 | +0.39% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
01 A softer close beneath a hard ceiling
The overnight tone was cautious rather than panicked. US stocks eased, gold rebounded and the 10-year Treasury yield held at 5.249%, close to its highest level in almost two decades. Volatility stayed contained, with the VIX at 16.04.
The dollar index rose 0.17% to 101.37. That matters beyond Wall Street: a firmer dollar raises the funding burden for Latin American borrowers and can drain appetite for local assets. On Tuesday, however, the Brazilian real and the Colombian peso both gained, helped by local factors.
Oil moved the other way from Monday. Brent fell US$2.69 to US$102.59 a barrel and US crude lost 3.5% to US$89.38 as signs of recovering Middle East exports eased supply fears. Cheaper oil helps importers but weighs on producers such as Colombia.
02 The Fed waits for the labour signal
Today’s US calendar brings August PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, and the ADP private payrolls count. Thursday adds jobless claims, the ISM manufacturing index and speeches by Fed officials Collins, Schmid, Waller, Bowman, Williams and Logan.
Friday’s September employment report is the week’s larger test; economists expect 90,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Williams’s remarks on Tuesday suggest the Fed leans towards one more rate rise late this year. Weak confidence and softer job openings could temper that view if Friday’s report disappoints.
03 Latin America reads the global weather
Brazil’s central bank publishes August fiscal data today, including the primary balance and debt ratios; gross debt stood at 82.5% of GDP in July. IBGE’s producer price index follows. Brazil’s September manufacturing PMI is due on Thursday.
Colombia’s central bank decides on rates today at 18:00 UTC. The rate is 12.00% and most analysts expect a hold. Chile releases unemployment, retail sales, industrial output and copper production data this morning.
On Thursday, Mexico’s manufacturing PMI and business confidence and Peru’s September inflation are due. The region is reading the same global weather: the Fed, the dollar, US yields and oil.
What to watch today and this week
- Wednesday: US PCE inflation, ADP payrolls and the Chicago PMI; Brazil fiscal data and producer prices; Chile labour and activity data; Colombia’s rate decision; Germany and France flash inflation; Japan’s Tankan survey late in the day.
- Thursday: US ISM manufacturing, jobless claims and six Fed speeches; Brazil manufacturing PMI; Mexico business confidence and PMI; Peru inflation.
- Friday: US September employment report.
- Ongoing: The dollar, US Treasury yields, the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices, and their spillovers into Latin American currencies and inflation.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did markets soften on Tuesday?
US consumer confidence fell to its lowest since April 2014 and job openings slipped, while the 10-year Treasury yield stayed near 5.25% and the dollar firmed. The S&P 500 eased 0.17%.
What did the Fed’s John Williams say?
The New York Fed president said there is no need for urgency after the September hike, but one further increase in the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year.
Why did oil fall?
Brent crude dropped 2.6% to US$102.59 a barrel as signs that Middle East exports were recovering eased supply fears.
How did Brazil’s data come in?
Brazil added 165,827 formal jobs in August, well above forecasts, unemployment held at 5.3% and the IGP-M index rose 1.57% in September. The real gained 0.45%.
What is the key US event this week?
Friday’s September employment report, preceded by today’s PCE inflation data and Thursday’s ISM manufacturing index and jobless claims.
Source: RT live market data, close of Tuesday 29 September 2026; releases from The Conference Board, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, European Commission, IBGE, FGV, Brazil’s Labour Ministry and INDEC.
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