Global Economy Briefing: November 13, 2025

A credit-light China, softer UK output, and heavier U.S. crude stocks framed a “slower goods, steady services” day.

China’s October financing impulse weakened sharply (new loans ¥220B; TSF ¥810B) even as unemployment dipped to 5.1% and retail held up.

Europe’s industrial rebound lost steam, with the UK posting broad September output declines.

In the U.S., a strong refinery restart met a large crude build, keeping energy markets choppy but not tight.

United States

Refinery utilization rebounded (+3.4pp WoW) and crude runs rose, yet commercial crude stocks climbed +6.413M barrels; gasoline drew a modest −0.945M and distillates −0.637M.

The 30-year auction cleared at 4.694% (below the prior 4.734%), while Fed balance-sheet liabilities and reserve balances nudged higher.

Read-through: inflation worries aren’t re-accelerating via energy, and duration demand remains healthy.

Europe and UK

Euro area industrial production missed (Sep +0.2% m/m; +1.2% y/y). France’s unemployment ticked up to 7.7%.

In the UK, the September slump was broad: manufacturing −1.7% m/m, industrial −2.0% m/m, GDP −0.1% m/m; Q3 GDP slowed to +0.1% q/q.

Business investment was still negative q/q (−0.3%) and softer y/y (+0.7%). Swiss producer prices extended deflation (−0.3% m/m; −1.7% y/y).

Takeaway: disinflation is intact, but growth momentum is fragile.

Asia-Pacific

China’s money growth eased (M2 8.2% y/y), loan growth slowed (6.5% y/y), fixed-asset investment contracted (−1.7% y/y), and industry cooled (IP 4.9% y/y).

Retail rose 2.9% y/y and joblessness fell to 5.1%, hinting at services resilience despite housing stress (home prices −2.2% y/y). Korea’s export price index accelerated (+4.8% y/y); New Zealand’s PMI improved (51.4).

Japan’s domestic pulse firmed at the margin (tertiary activity +5.00, machine-tool orders +16.8% y/y), with steady JGB demand (5-yr 1.245%).

Latin America and Africa

Brazil’s retail softened (Sep −0.3% m/m; +0.8% y/y), but autos improved (Oct output +1.8% m/m; sales +7.2% m/m)—a split between discretionary resilience and broader retail fatigue.

South Africa’s mining returned to growth (Sep +1.2% m/m; gold +5.9% y/y) and consumer sentiment gauges ticked up, but overall confidence remains subdued.

What it means

Global growth still leans on services and labor steadiness while goods and capex lag. China’s weaker credit impulse caps Asia’s industrial upswing unless consumption keeps offsetting property drag.

Europe and the UK gain disinflation “cover,” but the price is slower output.

For markets: favor quality duration over deep cyclicals; within equities, overweight service-heavy, domestic-demand exposures and underweight capital-intensive, credit-dependent names.

Energy balances look looser near-term, tempering headline inflation risk without signaling a demand crash.

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