Brazil GDP will drop 17% by 2048 unless country reduces global warming, says Al Gore

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Environmentalist and ex-U.S. Vice-President Al Gore said that Brazil may experience a 17% drop in its Gross Domestic Product by 2048 unless it adopts measures to mitigate global warming, namely contain forest fires and eliminate carbon emissions from its production structure.

Gore’s projection is contained in a report by Swiss Re insurance company. He spoke at the 4th edition of Global Citizen 2021 on Tuesday, May 25, an event promoted by Valor Econômico and Santander bank.

As is customary in his books and documentaries, Al Gore described with countless statistics the environmental situation in Brazil in his opening speech.

The contradiction the country has become in the eyes of the international community was clear: one of the most promising energy matrixes in the world, including in terms of costs, Brazil coexists with deforestation and forest fire records.

The last aspect, he noted, particularly threatens the Amazon biome with a potential process of savannization in the medium term, which would affect rainfall for agriculture and cities throughout the country.

He said that land use in Brazil is a “particularly important” point and that deforestation in the Amazon is “a major concern.” “In 2020, deforestation was the highest in 12 years. Last year, Brazil lost more primary vegetation than any other country: 1.7 million hectares, more than three times what the second country lost and more than the next five countries lost combined,” he said.

Al Gore also addressed the increase in forest fire outbreaks. “Last year, the Brazilian Amazon had the largest fires in 10 years. There was a 13% increase compared to 2019, in itselfs a year with fires that drew worldwide attention because of their extent and scale. The drought last year contributed to the fires and caused a US$3 billion loss mainly in agriculture,” he outlined.

In this point, he didn’t spare the United States and cited the forest fires in the western part of the country, which he claimed contributed to increasing pollution in the U.S. by 7% even during a pandemic year, in which the world registered low greenhouse gas emissions.

In Brazil, Gore listed other side effects of global warming, including floods responsible for the death of 150 people and US$500 million in damages; a sharp rise in temperature, such as the 50°C recorded for the first time in Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, and an increase in air pollution levels, which he claims have caused the premature death of about 25,000 Brazilians. In the world, according to Al Gore, there are an average of 9 million victims of air pollution.

“The need to act has never been more pressing,” he said. In the second part of his speech, he went on to list solutions. He spoke of technological opportunities to curb climate change and also suggested “natural” options.

“We have natural climate solutions, like sustainable forestry and regenerative agriculture, that can help lower emissions, create jobs, preserve biodiversity, and improve the quality and availability of drinking water.”

Of his lengthy list of solutions, Gore cited the energy transition and highlighted Brazil’s leadership in this agenda.

“Today Brazil has the cheapest wind energy in the world: R$1.07 per kilowatt-hour. It is impressive. Since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, wind energy capacity in the country has doubled. The cost of building a wind power plant in Brazil is now lower than the cost of continuing to operate a coal or oil plant,” said the environmentalist.

Regarding solar energy, further praise came after noting that the renewable energy’s capacity has tripled in the past two years. “Brazil could generate all the energy the country needs with solar energy alone in less than 0.8% of its total area, much less than if it were to produce fossil fuels as a source of electricity,” he said.