Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for September 9, 2024
This week, investors are focused on inflation data in Brazil and the US, with the IBGE releasing August’s IPCA figures on Tuesday.
Market expectations point to a near-stable reading, with a deceleration in transportation and gasoline prices.
The 12-month inflation rate is projected to cool from 4.50% to 4.28%, aligning with the central bank’s target range.
Economic Agenda for Monday September 9, 2024
Brazil
- 08:00: FGV: IPC-S (weekly)
- 08:25: BCB: Focus Report (weekly)
- 15:00: Secex: Trade Balance (weekly)
Mexico
- 09:00: Consumer Price Index (August)
Market Performance Last Week
Last week, the Ibovespa closed at 134,572.45 points, marking a 1.05% weekly decline influenced by weak U.S. jobs data.
The U.S. dollar ended at R$5.5901 against the Brazilian real, showing a 0.34% daily increase but a 0.80% weekly decrease.
On the bustling trading floors of Wall Street, a wave of concern swept through as the last week closed with significant declines across major indices, marking the worst performance of the year.
The S&P 500 plunged by 1.73% to 5,408.42 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.01% to 40,345.41 points.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite bore the brunt of the sell-off, dropping 2.55% to 16,690.83 points.
Oil Prices With Significant Drop
This past week, oil prices experienced a significant drop, marking the worst week in nearly a year due to persistent demand uncertainties and fresh employment data from the United States.
Brent crude, a global benchmark, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) both hit their lowest levels in months, with futures contracts closing at multi-year lows.
Brent futures for November fell by 2.24% to $71.06 per barrel, and WTI futures for October saw a 2.14% drop to $67.67 per barrel.
The downward trend in oil prices extends beyond just a day’s trading. Over the week, Brent futures plummeted by 9.8%, and WTI futures receded by 8%, marking the worst performance since October 2023.
Corporate News
Unipar recently secured R$ 750 million ($135 million) through long-term debentures at historically low interest rates for bonds lasting over a decade.
The move signals strong market confidence and strategically boosts Unipar’s financial health by prolonging debt maturities and reducing borrowing costs.
Political Landscape
Brazil celebrated its 202nd year of independence last week, with a traditional civic-military parade in Brasília highlighting the country’s upcoming G20 presidency.
The government’s focus on economic diplomacy and global cooperation may influence investor confidence in the coming months.
Economic Indicators
The IBGE will also publish the Monthly Services Survey (PMS) for July on Wednesday, followed by the Monthly Retail Survey (PMC) on Thursday.
These releases will provide crucial insights into Brazil’s economic activity at the start of the third quarter, especially following the surprising GDP growth in Q2.
Central Bank Decisions
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday.
Most financial agents anticipate a 0.25 percentage point cut in the reference interest rate to 3.5%.
Investors will closely monitor ECB President Christine Lagarde’s signals regarding the continuation of monetary easing in the eurozone.
U.S. Economic Data
In the United States, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August will be released on Wednesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday.
These figures will be crucial in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy decisions.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.46%
176,723.62
-0.46%
67,298.78
+0.88%
10,916.70
-0.84%
3,319,522
-1.78%
2,283.28
-0.60%
57,575.02
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,723.62 | -0.46% | +30.55% | 177,547.57 | 177,896 | 176,293 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.09 | +0.71% | -8.51% | 5.05 | 5.09 | 5.04 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.79 | -0.09% | -11.21% | 5.80 | 5.79 | 5.76 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 100.55 | +6.89% | +46.77% | 94.07 | 102.01 | 94.88 | 47,655 |
| WTI | 92.36 | +6.37% | +41.55% | 86.83 | 93.50 | 87.32 | 379,306 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.76% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,052 | -2.28% | +19.39% | 4,147 | 4,144 | 4,043 | 154,221 |
| SILVER | 57.90 | -3.54% | +47.40% | 60.02 | 60.36 | 57.32 | 34,110 |
| LITHIUM | 69.02 | +0.03% | +55.17% | 69.00 | 69.68 | 68.65 | 135,477 |
| SOY | 1,241 | +0.65% | +23.39% | 1,233 | 1,250 | 1,236 | 141,251 |
| CORN | 486.75 | +5.36% | +22.15% | 462.00 | 490.25 | 483.00 | 212,025 |
| WHEAT | 694.50 | -1.59% | +28.49% | 705.75 | 710.25 | 693.00 | 73,588 |
| COFFEE | 310.75 | -1.86% | +3.12% | 316.65 | 321.30 | 308.25 | 12,910 |
| SUGAR | 14.68 | -0.41% | -9.61% | 14.74 | 14.90 | 14.65 | 42,689 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 145.50 | -3.19% | -56.77% | 150.30 | 148.80 | 144.00 | 371 |
| COTTON | 81.53 | +2.08% | +22.38% | 79.87 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 15,710 |
| BEEF | 221.48 | -0.77% | -2.44% | 223.20 | 221.90 | 217.38 | 19,933 |
| CATTLE | 340.13 | -0.31% | +2.59% | 341.17 | 340.50 | 333.00 | 9,414 |
| COCOA | 5,367 | +0.73% | -36.41% | 5,328 | 5,411 | 5,165 | 13,283 |
| PETR4 | 42.95 | +0.87% | +34.26% | 42.58 | 43.49 | 42.86 | 25,169,000 |
| VALE3 | 75.68 | +0.77% | +31.80% | 75.10 | 77.07 | 74.51 | 15,786,100 |
| SUZB3 | 42.43 | -0.54% | -18.01% | 42.66 | 42.82 | 41.78 | 2,360,100 |
| KLABIN | 17.66 | -1.51% | -4.57% | 17.93 | 17.92 | 17.41 | 4,883,900 |
| SLCE3 | 13.77 | -1.36% | -14.13% | 13.96 | 14.06 | 13.69 | 2,340,100 |
| ABEV3 | 15.92 | -1.30% | +17.14% | 16.13 | 16.11 | 15.84 | 18,905,100 |
| ITUB4 | 42.56 | -0.79% | +23.87% | 42.90 | 42.87 | 42.27 | 22,565,100 |
| BBDC4 | 18.72 | -1.32% | +17.88% | 18.97 | 18.99 | 18.68 | 19,154,400 |
| BBAS3 | 20.93 | -0.76% | +3.56% | 21.09 | 21.08 | 20.78 | 18,427,800 |
| B3SA3 | 15.65 | -1.57% | +16.88% | 15.90 | 15.82 | 15.48 | 41,084,700 |
| WEGE3 | 45.67 | -2.29% | +20.15% | 46.74 | 46.86 | 44.68 | 13,581,200 |
| PRIO3 | 60.54 | +1.29% | +42.55% | 59.77 | 61.35 | 60.54 | 6,347,300 |
| RENT3 | 37.14 | +0.00% | +2.51% | 37.14 | 37.19 | 36.03 | 13,206,600 |
| AZZA3 | 17.05 | -4.27% | -54.07% | 17.81 | 17.71 | 17.03 | 2,368,800 |
| CSNA3 | 5.30 | -1.49% | -39.57% | 5.38 | 5.61 | 5.30 | 12,053,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.06 | +0.00% | +39.72% | 24.06 | 24.41 | 23.83 | 7,631,200 |
| ENEV3 | 25.70 | -1.04% | +83.70% | 25.97 | 25.80 | 25.45 | 3,301,300 |
| LREN3 | 13.37 | -1.26% | -24.16% | 13.54 | 13.48 | 13.23 | 8,057,600 |
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