Ecopetrol Profit Falls Sharply as Margins Tighten Under Global Pressures

Ecopetrol reported a COP 3.13 trillion ($728 million) net profit in Q1 2025. This result reflects a 22% decline from the COP 4.01 trillion ($932 million) profit in Q1 2024. It marks the lowest quarterly profit level since the pandemic.

Quarterly sales rose 0.2% year-over-year to COP 31.37 trillion ($7.29 billion). EBITDA fell 6.9% to COP 13.26 trillion ($3.08 billion). The EBITDA margin narrowed to 42.3% from 45.5% last year.

Falling Brent crude prices averaged $68.70 per barrel. Company executives said inflation reduced profits by COP 0.1 trillion and exchange-rate shifts cut another COP 0.3 trillion. Global demand weakness and trade uncertainties also weighed on results.

Production reached 745,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day. This represents the highest quarterly output in five years. Stable output failed to offset price pressures on earnings.

Ecopetrol raised national output to 521,000 barrels per day. International operations added 224,400 barrels per day. Executives said this performance counters criticism on exploration efforts and reliance on US assets.

Refining throughput reached 396,000 barrels per day, while transport volumes amounted to 1.09 million barrels per day. Maintenance at Barrancabermeja caused minor disruptions. Executives said uptime levels remained high.

Ecopetrol Confronts Fiscal Strains and Market Volatility

Corficolombiana analysts estimate a COP 1.4 trillion revenue loss in Q2 from Brent declines. A one-percent peso devaluation could shave COP 1.1 trillion off revenues. They warn that sub-$60 barrel prices may force closure of low-margin fields.

Comparing these results with Q1 2021 shows similar profit levels. That quarter saw a COP 3.10 trillion net income. The comparison underlines ongoing exposure to price swings.

Ecopetrol advances its Pacific regasification project with Puertos, Inversiones y Obras. The terminal will start partial operations at 25 million cubic feet per day in early 2026. It will ramp up to its full 60 Mpcd capacity by mid-2026.

The tax authority fined the company COP 3.6 trillion for unpaid diesel and ACPM import VAT. Executives expect to recover COP 3.4 trillion through tax-refund mechanisms. They expect to recover 93% of this year’s payment and carry the remainder into next year.

Analysts had forecast a COP 3.46 trillion net income and COP 32.17 trillion in sales. Their missed estimates reflect market pessimism on oil prices. All major brokerages issued hold or sell ratings on Ecopetrol shares.

Ecopetrol earned COP 14.9 trillion ($3.46 billion) in net profit for full-year 2024. That result marked a 21.7% drop from COP 19.1 trillion ($4.44 billion) in 2023. The annual trends show persistent margin pressures.

These figures reveal a company under stress from global volatility and fiscal constraints. Ecopetrol holds an 88.5% government stake. Investors remain cautious as margins tighten and risks mount.