Pemex’s 2025 Oil Outlook Falls Short as Losses Mount

According to filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Pemex forecasts average crude production of 1.58 million barrels per day in 2025.

The company and its partners pumped 1.62 million bpd in the first quarter. That output represented an 11.3 percent decline year-on-year, driven by aging wells and delays in new well completions.

President Claudia Sheinbaum set a 1.8 million bpd goal for year-end 2025, yet older Gulf of Mexico fields keep depleting faster than new finds can compensate.

Pemex has not reached the government’s production target since March 2024. Executives say they plan joint ventures with private firms, retaining at least a 40 percent stake, to boost output.

In the first quarter, Pemex reported a net loss of 43.3 billion pesos ($2.12 billion) as crude sales fell and foreign-exchange swings struck its bottom line. The company processed 936,000 bpd at its domestic refineries, down 5 percent from the prior year.

Its refining arm yielded 305,000 bpd of gasoline and 171,000 bpd of diesel. Pemex closed March with financial debt of $101.1 billion, up from $97.6 billion at year-end 2024.

The state supplied 80 billion pesos in support during the quarter, largely to repay debt. Pemex has approved 136 billion pesos in government transfers for amortizations through 2025, aiming to lower its debt balance by year‐end.

Executives stress that meeting the 1.8 million bpd target requires faster well completions and higher investment in mature fields. The company said it will keep exploring proven areas and apply secondary and tertiary recovery methods where feasible.

It also works with the finance ministry to manage supplier liabilities and smooth cash flows. The gap between Pemex’s forecast and its pledged goal underscores persistent challenges in reversing output declines.

Without new resource injections or field breakthroughs, the state oil maker risks further production shortfalls and a continued drain on public finances. Investors and policymakers will watch closely as Pemex presses to bridge the deficit and stabilize Mexico’s oil output.