Dollar Climbs to 5.72 Reais on Weak U.S. GDP and Brazil’s Rising Unemployment
According to Trading Economics and IBGE data, the U.S. dollar traded at 5.7153 reais on Wednesday morning. It rose 0.04% from Tuesday’s close of 5.7130.
The real weakened slightly after mixed domestic and U.S. data. Investors remained cautious ahead of key policy meetings. Brazil’s labor market data showed unemployment at 7.0% in the quarter ended March.
The jobless rate stood at its lowest level for that period since 2012. Yet the rise from 6.2% in the previous quarter unsettled some traders. They now expect the central bank to hold its benchmark rate at 14.25%.
Softer oil and iron ore prices weighed on Brazil’s export terms of trade. Commodities prices fell as global growth concerns grew. That trend limited support for the local currency. Analysts noted that export revenue might slow further.
A recent Focus Report lowered 2025 Selic rate forecasts to 14.75%. U.S. economic figures added to dollar strength. GDP contracted at a 0.3% annualized rate in Q1. ADP reported just 62,000 new private-sector jobs in April.
These data pushed investors toward safe-haven assets. Asian trading saw notable currency moves overnight. The Taiwan dollar rallied 8% over two days. Hong Kong’s authority spent $7.8 billion defending its peg.
“This surge mainly reflects life insurers’ hedging,” said Chris Weston of Pepperstone. “Many now think these currencies could gain favor.” Growing U.S.–China trade tensions threatened demand for Brazilian commodities.
Brazil’s Real Holds Steady Amid Renewed Tariff Risks
Analysts warned that renewed tariff risks could curb export volumes. They noted that Brazil relies heavily on Chinese demand for iron ore. This backdrop kept the real on edge.
Technically, the dollar traded between its 50-hour and 200-hour moving averages. The 50-hour average stood at about 5.70 reais. The 200-hour average hovered near 5.73 reais. Narrowing Bollinger bands signaled subdued volatility ahead.
Spot trading volumes clustered in the 5.71–5.72 region, dealers reported. They added that few large block trades emerged. Latin America equity ETFs saw modest inflows yesterday. By contrast, FX-specific funds remained broadly flat.
Analysts at Trading Economics expect USD/BRL to reach 5.74 by quarter-end. They cited risks skewed to the upside if global growth slows. Other models project a 6.01 exchange rate by mid-2026. Traders now monitor Brazil’s May policy meeting for fresh cues.
This morning’s muted moves reflected a market in wait-and-see mode. Participants prepared for U.S. Fed minutes due later today. They also eyed central bank minutes from Brasília. The dollar’s path will hinge on these upcoming releases.
The latest Focus Report lowered 2025 Selic rate forecasts to 14.75%. It also trimmed year-end inflation projections to 5.53%. Analysts now foresee moderate real appreciation against the dollar later. These revisions underpin cautious market sentiment.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
-1.52%
174,041.95
-1.52%
66,383.68
+0.21%
10,950.74
+0.31%
3,283,854
-1.07%
2,274.53
-0.38%
58,287.01
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 174,041.95 | -1.52% | +30.07% | 176,723.62 | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.09 | +0.06% | -8.59% | 5.08 | 5.09 | 5.08 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 42.21 | -1.72% | +32.15% | 42.95 | 42.91 | 42.15 | 29,108,700 |
| VALE3 | 75.24 | -0.58% | +33.10% | 75.68 | 75.53 | 74.84 | 8,619,900 |
| ITUB4 | 42.10 | -1.08% | +23.68% | 42.56 | 42.45 | 42.04 | 10,431,800 |
| BBDC4 | 18.48 | -1.28% | +17.86% | 18.72 | 18.64 | 18.42 | 13,961,200 |
| BBAS3 | 20.35 | -2.77% | +1.40% | 20.93 | 20.82 | 20.35 | 14,376,600 |
| B3SA3 | 15.44 | -1.34% | +17.68% | 15.65 | 15.67 | 15.43 | 35,146,900 |
| ABEV3 | 15.64 | -1.76% | +15.85% | 15.92 | 15.90 | 15.61 | 15,223,800 |
| WEGE3 | 45.99 | +0.70% | +26.94% | 45.67 | 46.19 | 44.94 | 7,718,600 |
| PRIO3 | 58.82 | -2.84% | +39.05% | 60.54 | 60.27 | 58.46 | 5,375,200 |
| SUZB3 | 41.84 | -1.39% | -18.76% | 42.43 | 42.25 | 41.63 | 3,639,400 |
| RENT3 | 36.89 | -0.67% | +2.56% | 37.14 | 37.38 | 36.59 | 4,733,700 |
| AZZA3 | 16.65 | -2.35% | -54.40% | 17.05 | 17.17 | 16.65 | 1,511,900 |
| CSNA3 | 5.36 | +1.13% | -37.31% | 5.30 | 5.45 | 5.24 | 8,140,000 |
| GGBR4 | 24.26 | +0.83% | +40.39% | 24.06 | 24.45 | 23.82 | 5,543,500 |
| ENEV3 | 24.90 | -3.11% | +79.65% | 25.70 | 25.58 | 24.87 | 4,494,900 |
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