Datafolha Finds a Technical Tie in Both Rounds as the Welfare Fight Reaches the Courts
Key Facts
Brazil’s presidential race has arrived at the point where the polling stops helping. Datafolha’s latest survey finds both the first and the second round inside the margin of error, sixteen days before voting begins.
The fieldwork ran from 15 to 17 September and covered 2,002 people aged 16 and over. The margin of error is two percentage points either way.
The Numbers
In the first round the poll gives Lula 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro 36%. Augusto Cury has 6%, Ronaldo Caiado 4%, Renan Santos 3% and Romeu Zema 2%, with several others on one point each.
In a second round the poll gives Lula 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro 44%. Both results are being described as technical ties.
That description deserves a word of precision. A three-point first-round gap against a two-point margin is narrow rather than arithmetically level, and the second-round gap is genuinely inside it.
The firmer number is on decided voters. Some 84% of Lula’s supporters say they are fully decided, against 82% of Flávio Bolsonaro’s, with the electorate as a whole at 76%.
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-0.61%
184,856.37
-0.61%
63,873.32
+0.58%
11,381.18
+1.30%
3,044,594
-0.55%
2,539.81
+0.71%
60,023.65
-0.38%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 184,856.37 | -0.61% | +21.85% | 185,992.03 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
The Welfare Rise That Set It Off
The government published a 15% rise in the Bolsa Família floor on Wednesday, in an extra edition of the official gazette. The minimum payment goes from R$600 to R$691, about US$116 to US$134, from 1 October.
That is three days before the first round. Two weeks earlier the planning ministry had said no rise was planned, and the 2027 budget carried no funds for it.
Flávio Bolsonaro attacked it on his weekly livestream on Thursday. He asked whether the increase was all Lula had, called it a pittance and asked whether he had no shame.
He also promised to keep it. He said the programme was guaranteed under him, that he would maintain the increase and would do a great deal more.
The Case at the Electoral Court
Renan Santos, the presidential candidate for Missão, filed at the Superior Electoral Court this week. He asks that the decree be suspended until elected candidates take office, calling the measure vote-buying.
Justice André Mendonça was drawn by lot as rapporteur on Thursday night. Neither of the outlets reporting the filing specifies the type of action or a case number.
That draw is worth noting for a reason beyond this case. Mendonça also holds Henrique Vorcaro’s house-arrest request, has been shielded from police investigation by Justice Flávio Dino, and faces a Senate impeachment request.
Four separate threads now run through one member of the court. None of them is connected to the others by any finding.
What the Economists Said
Armínio Fraga, a former president of the Central Bank, was asked about the increase in an interview published on Friday. His answer was careful rather than categorical.
He said the moment clearly could not be separated from the elections. He added that the word populism arises almost instantly.
That is a comment on timing rather than a verdict on the policy. It has nonetheless been widely reported as a verdict.
The programme reaches 19.3 million families. It costs R$5.8 billion, about US$1.13 billion, this year and R$22.7 billion or some US$4.4 billion a year from 2027.
How the Market Took It
The Ibovespa opened Friday at 185,973 points, almost exactly where it closed on Thursday. It then fell to a session low of 184,997, a drop of 0.53%.
By mid-morning it stood at 185,240, down 0.42%, with only eleven of its constituents in positive territory. Banks, Petrobras and the steelmakers led the decline.
The currency did not follow. The commercial dollar traded at about R$5.134, marginally weaker than Thursday’s close of R$5.139, which is worth roughly nineteen US cents.
Interest rate futures also eased rather than rose. Contracts across the curve were down by between half a basis point and four hundredths of a percentage point in morning trading.
What to Watch Before 4 October
The first question is whether the Bolsa Família rise survives the electoral court. A suspension would be the sharpest intervention of the campaign so far.
The second is whether the polls move at all. With more than eight in ten voters on both sides saying they are decided, the room left for persuasion is narrow.
The third is fiscal. Every announcement between now and the vote will be read through the same lens as this one.
The first round falls on Sunday 4 October, with any run-off on 25 October. The Datafolha survey is registered with the electoral court under number BR-04029/2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the latest Datafolha poll show?
Lula on 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro on 36% in the first round, and 46% to 44% in a second round. The margin of error is two percentage points.
When was the poll conducted?
Fieldwork ran from 15 to 17 September 2026 with 2,002 respondents aged 16 and over. It was commissioned by Grupo Globo and Folha de S.Paulo.
What changed in the Bolsa Família programme?
The minimum payment rises 15% from R$600 to R$691, about US$116 to US$134, effective 1 October 2026. It reaches 19.3 million families.
Who is challenging the increase?
Renan Santos, the presidential candidate for Missão, filed at the Superior Electoral Court asking for the decree to be suspended. Justice André Mendonça was drawn as rapporteur.
What did Armínio Fraga say?
The former Central Bank president said the timing clearly could not be separated from the elections, and that the word populism arises almost instantly. He did not call the increase populism outright.
When is the election?
The first round is on Sunday 4 October 2026, with any run-off on 25 October.
Sources: O Tempo on the Datafolha first and second round figures, O Povo on decided voters in the same survey, Jovem Pan on Flávio Bolsonaro’s livestream remarks, Gazeta do Povo on the filing at the electoral court, Poder360 on Armínio Fraga’s comments, BP Money on Friday morning trading
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