Covid-19: map shows “extremely high” transmission rate across most of Brazil

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Community Covid-19 transmission remains at “extremely high” levels in most of Brazil, an indication that the novel coronavirus pandemic is still uncontrolled in the country, according to an unprecedented map developed by researchers at Fiocruz (Oswaldo Cruz Foundation).

Based on data from SIVEP-Gripe, the Ministry of Health’s Epidemiological Surveillance Information System on Influenza, and corrected estimates, researchers observed the growth in the number of hospitalizations for SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) by date of first symptoms and found that in the week starting June 7, community transmission of the virus is “extremely high” in all states, except for Roraima and Espírito Santo. In the last two, it is “very high”.

According to Leonardo Bastos, statistician and researcher in Public Health at PROCC/Fiocruz (Scientific Computing Program of Fiocruz), the 24 states and the Federal District show a rate higher than 10 hospitalizations per 100,000 inhabitants, “the reference value for something extremely high,” he says in his official Twitter account.

“Many are much higher, and have worsened,” he adds.

“Community transmission” refers to the occurrence of infections with no link to a confirmed case, in a specific area. That is, when tracing the origin of the infection in not possible, indicating that the virus is circulating among people, irrespective of whether or not they have traveled abroad. This is the case of the novel coronavirus in Brazil and in many countries around the world.

Bastos points out that although hospitalizations are not necessarily confirmed cases, “we can assume that the number of cases is proportional to the number of hospitalizations.”

Moreover, he adds that although not all SARS notifications are associated with Covid-19, since March 2020, “the vast majority of SARS hospitalizations are indeed related to Covid.”

‘Rocket stopped in the stratosphere’

When hearing about “stability of the Covid-19 pandemic” in Brazil, this does not necessarily mean that it is under control.

On the contrary, cases remain at “an absurdly high level, which consequently leads to a very high number of hospitalizations and deaths,” Isaac Schrarstzhaupt says, a data scientist and coordinator of the Covid-19 Analysis Network, an initiative comprising researchers who disclose data and counter misinformation about the pandemic.

“I draw an analogy with a rocket: we let it take off and reach the stratosphere, and then it stops up there. Now it’s even going up again,” he explains.

“To illustrate, on Thursday, June 10, we had almost 90,000 new cases reported. In one day. How many hospitalizations and how many deaths will result from these 90,000 cases in a single day of notifications?”

Schrarstzhaupt alerts that since April there has been a “reversal of the downward trend at high levels.”

Nevertheless, in a latest development of the coronavirus crisis in Brazil, president Jair Bolsonaro said he had asked Health Minister Marcelo Queiroga for an opinion to allow people vaccinated and recovered from Covid not to wear masks, an idea criticized by public health experts, given that even people who have been immunized or had the disease can still contract the virus and transmit it to others.

Bolsonaro again advocated the proposal on Friday, June 11, but said that the final decision will be up to governors and mayors. “I don’t decide on anything,” he scoffed.

Brazil is the third country in number of Covid-19 cases (17.2 million) and the second in number of deaths (482,000). In the past 24 hours, deaths from the disease totaled 2,344.

Source: BBC Brasil