Colombia’s Peso Steadies As Politics Flare And Stocks Pause

The Colombian peso began Friday near 3,883 per dollar, little changed around the official reference rate of 3,897.64.

A firm U.S. Dollar Index near 97.9 kept a lid on currency gains, while Colombia’s still-high real interest rate—policy at 9.25% with inflation near 5%—helped anchor the peso ahead of September CPI due October 7.

Here’s the story, simply: the global dollar tone is steady, so the peso isn’t getting an external boost. At home, carry remains attractive, which prevents outsized weakness. Those two forces offset, leaving USD/COP stuck in a 3,88k–3,90k band.

The story behind the story is political. After the Gaza flotilla episode, President Gustavo Petro moved to fully rupture ties with Israel and start unwinding the bilateral FTA—steps that also test Bogotá’s relationship with Washington.

Markets see limited immediate trade impact, but they do add a layer of risk premium investors will watch if headlines escalate. Stocks reflected the same “pause” mood.

The MSCI Colcap slipped 0.75% to 1,848.9 on Thursday, easing after a strong run that still leaves the index comfortably above its 200-day average. Energy softness abroad didn’t help: Ecopetrol’s New York shares fell about 1.5%.

Winners and losers tell the micro-story. Organizacion Terpel led gainers (+1.6%), followed by Mineros (+1.3%) and Grupo Bolívar (+0.6%), hinting at interest in defensives and precious-metals leverage.

On the downside, Canacol Energy (-4.4%) lagged, with Celsia (-1.6%) and Grupo Argos (-1.4%) also lower, reflecting caution in energy and utilities.

Technicals reinforce the stalemate. On the daily chart, USD/COP sits below a declining 200-day average, momentum negative but stabilizing—still a mild downtrend for the dollar versus the peso. The four-hour view is range-bound, with neutral RSI and fading MACD.

Translation: resistance around 3,900–3,910, support at 3,870 then 3,840–3,830. A daily close back above the 200-day would point to renewed dollar strength; a clean break below 3,830 would reopen 3,78k–3,80k.

Bottom line: Colombia’s market is balancing politics against carry. Unless U.S. risk sentiment or next week’s CPI jars the view, expect a contained session—steady peso, selective stock rotation, and eyes on the headlines.