Colombian Commercial Confidence Rises, Industrial Outlook Dips in October

The latest Fedesarrollo survey reveals a complex business confidence landscape in Colombia for October 2024. The Commercial Confidence Index (Icco) rose to 17.8%, a 5.6 percentage point increase from September’s 12.2%.

This uptick was driven by a 7.8-point decrease in inventory levels and a 7.0-point rise in six-month economic expectations. Additionally, there was a 2.2-point improvement in current economic perceptions.

Compared to October 2023, the Icco increased by 3.1 points. The index comprises three components: current economic perception, inventory levels, and future economic expectations.

A year ago, these scored 33.8, 7.5, and 17.8 points respectively. Luis Fernando Mejía, Fedesarrollo‘s executive director, attributed the Icco’s rise to reduced inventories and improved economic outlooks among businesses.

On the industrial front, the Industrial Confidence Index (ICI) fell to -0.4% in October 2024, down 1.7 points from September’s 1.3%. However, this represents a 3.3-point improvement from October 2023’s -3.7%.

The ICI components showed mixed results compared to last year. Inventories dropped from 4.8 points to zero, orders improved from -17.1 to -15.7 points, and production expectations rose from 10.9 to 14.4 points.

The monthly industrial confidence decline was primarily due to a 12.2-point drop in production expectations and a 1.6-point rise in inventory levels. However, current order volumes increased by 8.4 points.

In the export sector, the third quarter saw a 4.2% balance on export value in dollars, indicating more businesses experienced export decreases than increases.

This marks an 18.3-point increase from the second quarter of 2024 (-22.5%) and a 5.1-point rise from the third quarter of 2023 (9.3%). The export order balance stood at -13.8%, an 8.9-point improvement from the previous quarter (-22.7%).

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