Colombia Markets: COLCAP Slips 0.38% as BanRep Surprises With 12.25% Hike
Key Facts
- The COLCAP fell 0.38% to 2,549 points on Wednesday 30 September, a third straight daily loss.
- The Banco de la República raised its rate by 25 basis points to 12.25%, against a market that expected a hold. The board split 4–2–1.
- The peso firmed 0.68% to 3,307.50 per US dollar, from 3,330 on Tuesday, as the hike widened the yield on peso assets.
- Rate-sensitive shares led the losses. Cementos Argos fell 3.60%, Terpel 2.51% and Celsia 2.34%; Grupo Sura rose 2.07%.
- Unemployment rose to 9.4% in August, from 8.6% a year earlier and well above the 8.1% forecast, the highest in 20 months.
Today’s Focus
Colombia’s central bank surprised the market on Wednesday. The Banco de la República raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 12.25%. Most analysts had expected it to hold at 12.00%.
The vote was split. Four of the seven board members backed the quarter-point hike, two wanted a hold and one wanted 50 basis points. The board said inflation remains high and expectations sit above target, while activity is still favourable but slowing.
Shares took the decision badly. The COLCAP index fell 0.38% to 2,549 points, its third loss in a row. Bogotá brokerage Acciones y Valores said the hike weighed on stocks sensitive to borrowing costs, especially consumer and construction names.
The peso went the other way. It closed at 3,307.50 per US dollar, 0.68% stronger than Tuesday. Higher local rates make peso assets more attractive to hold.
The hike came on the same day as a weak jobs report. Unemployment jumped to 9.4% in August, the highest in 20 months.
What matters today. Markets will digest a central bank that tightened even as the labour market weakens. The September manufacturing PMI and the Finance Ministry’s planned TES swap are the local events on Thursday.
01 The session in one read
Colombian shares fell for a third day. The COLCAP, the main index for Bogotá-listed companies, lost 0.38% to close at 2,549 points, from 2,559 on Tuesday.
The peso did better. It closed at 3,307.50 per US dollar, from 3,330, a 0.68% gain for the Colombian currency. Turnover in the spot dollar market was US$1,459 million, according to Acciones y Valores.
The main event was the central bank’s surprise rate hike. It pushed short-term government bond yields down and long-term yields up, lifted the peso and weighed on rate-sensitive shares.
Oil did not drive the day. Brent crude rose about 0.9% to roughly US$103.5 a barrel, yet Ecopetrol still fell 1.28%.
For the month, the COLCAP still gained 5.12% in September. It is up 23.27% so far this year.
The Banco de la República chose to fight inflation even as unemployment rose to 9.4%. That is the classic hawkish trade-off, and the market priced it that way: a stronger peso, a rally in short-dated TES as the curve steepened, and losses in shares that depend on cheap credit. The 4–2–1 vote shows the board is divided, and one member wanted a bigger move. The variable to watch is guidance: whether the board signals more hikes, or treats Wednesday’s move as a one-off insurance step.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| COLCAP | 2,549 | −0.38% | Third straight loss after the rate hike |
| USD/COP | 3,307.50 | −0.68% | Peso firmer; hike widens the carry |
| BanRep policy rate | 12.25% | +25 bp | Surprise hike; vote 4–2–1 |
| TES Nov-2027 yield | 11.70% | −11.1 bp | Short end rallied |
| TES Jul-2036 yield | 13.00% | +17.8 bp | Long end sold off |
| S&P 500 | 7,652 | −0.25% | US stocks slightly lower |
The COLCAP closed at 2,549 points, down 0.38%. The peso firmed to 3,307.50 per US dollar from 3,330 on Tuesday. The session’s range ran from 3,295 to 3,330 per US dollar.
The bond market reacted sharply. The Nov-2027 TES yield fell 11.1 basis points to 11.70%, while the Jul-2036 yield rose 17.8 basis points to 13.00%. Investors bet the hike will curb inflation in the near term but demanded more to hold long-dated debt.
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Colombia — Live Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLCAP | 2,549.16 | -0.38% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| ECOPETROL | 16.92 | -0.53% | +98.01% | 17.01 | 17.05 | 16.79 | 737,591 |
| BANCOLOMBIA | 95.87 | -2.18% | +96.15% | 98.01 | 100.36 | 95.73 | 188,740 |
| GRUPO AVAL | 5.40 | +2.66% | +76.89% | 5.26 | 5.49 | 5.32 | 146,447 |
| TECNOGLASS | 42.30 | -1.10% | -48.04% | 42.77 | 42.73 | 42.05 | 60,908 |
| CREDICORP | 375.17 | -0.49% | +49.60% | 377.00 | 384.43 | 372.27 | 88,375 |
| BUENAVENTURA | 34.45 | -1.02% | +88.07% | 34.80 | 35.62 | 34.33 | 275,831 |
| SOUTHERN COPPER | 193.97 | -0.26% | +104.01% | 194.48 | 199.36 | 192.59 | 367,102 |
03 Wednesday’s data, one by one
Our previous edition told readers to watch four Colombian releases, US data and a debt swap. Here is how each turned out.
- Banco de la República rate decision (main driver). The board raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to 12.25%; the consensus was a hold at 12.00%. Four members voted for 25 basis points, two for a hold and one for 50 basis points. It was the first rate decision under President Abelardo de la Espriella’s government. The peso strengthened, short-term TES yields fell and rate-sensitive shares dropped.
- Unemployment, August (DANE). The rate rose to 9.4%, against a forecast of 8.1% and 8.6% in August 2025. It was the highest in 20 months, and the number of people in work fell by 126,000 from a year earlier. The weak print did not stop the hike.
- Business confidence, August (Fedesarrollo). Industrial confidence eased to 5.8% from 6.1% in July, above the 5.0% forecast. Retail confidence fell more sharply, to 23.3% from 27.5%. The data did not move the market.
- Cement, August (DANE). We flagged a forecast of −0.8%. Production fell 1.9% year on year to 1.23 million tonnes, while domestic dispatches rose 2.9% to 1.13 million tonnes. Cementos Argos still fell 3.60% on the rate news.
- US data. ADP private payrolls rose by 90,000 in September, above the 70,000 forecast. August core PCE inflation rose 0.2% on the month and 3.0% on the year, both below forecast, while consumer spending jumped 0.9%. The Chicago PMI leapt to 58.8 from 47.1. The S&P 500 slipped 0.25%.
- TES swap (promised for Thursday). The Finance Ministry’s swap to retire TCOs maturing in October, November and January falls on Thursday; results were not yet published at the time of writing.
04 Why it moved — a central bank that chose inflation over jobs
The hike was the story. Higher rates raise financing costs for companies and consumers, and that hit the shares most exposed to credit. Cementos Argos fell 3.60% to 11,240 pesos (about US$3.40), Terpel 2.51% to 18,620 pesos (about US$5.63) and Celsia 2.34% to 4,800 pesos (about US$1.45).
Energy and utilities were weak too. Ecopetrol fell 1.28% to 2,705 pesos (about US$0.82) despite firmer oil, ISA lost 1.38% and GEB 1.14%.
The peso benefited. A higher policy rate widens the gap between Colombian and US yields, which makes the peso attractive for carry trades. Acciones y Valores said Société Générale recommended short positions in the Chilean peso against the Colombian peso, calling the Colombian currency the least vulnerable among Andean peers.
Inflation is the board’s worry. It said price pressures remain high and expectations are above target. The rise in unemployment shows the cost: the economy is cooling, and dearer money will slow it further.
05 The day’s movers
| Stock | Close | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grupo Sura | 69,000 pesos (US$20.86) | +2.07% | Top gainer |
| PF Corficolombiana | 18,820 pesos (US$5.69) | +1.95% | Preferred shares up |
| Grupo Argos | 21,860 pesos (US$6.61) | +1.20% | Holding company gains |
| Ecopetrol | 2,705 pesos (US$0.82) | −1.28% | Fell despite firmer oil |
| Corficolombiana | 21,520 pesos (US$6.51) | −2.27% | Among most traded |
| Celsia | 4,800 pesos (US$1.45) | −2.34% | Utility hit by rates |
| Terpel | 18,620 pesos (US$5.63) | −2.51% | Fuel distributor lower |
| Cementos Argos | 11,240 pesos (US$3.40) | −3.60% | Biggest loser; construction |
Gains were few. Grupo Sura rose 2.07% and textile maker Fabricato added 2.00%. Preferred shares of the bank Cibest, the parent of Bancolombia and the most traded stock, edged up 0.10% to 76,620 pesos (about US$23.17).
In New York, Colombian shares fell. Cibest’s ADRs lost 0.98% to US$92.85, Ecopetrol’s 0.24% to US$16.48 and Grupo Aval’s 1.03% to US$4.82.
06 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | Brazil | +1.37% |
| S&P Merval | Argentina | +1.32% |
| COLCAP | Colombia | −0.38% |
| S&P IPSA | Chile | −0.78% |
| S&P/BMV IPC | Mexico | −1.38% |
Latin American markets split on Wednesday. Brazil’s Ibovespa rose 1.37% and Argentina’s Merval gained 1.32%.
Mexico’s IPC fell 1.38% and Chile’s IPSA lost 0.78%, so Colombia’s 0.38% decline sat in the middle. On currencies, the Colombian peso’s 0.68% gain beat the Brazilian real’s 0.53%; the Mexican peso slipped 0.12% and the Chilean peso was little changed.
07 The technical picture
The COLCAP closed at 2,549, just below the 2,550 zone that Acciones y Valores flagged as key support on Tuesday. A further slide would put the August lows near 2,520 in view. In September the index traded between 2,470 and 2,627.
The peso touched 3,295 per US dollar during the session before closing at 3,307.50. The 3,300 per-dollar mark is now the level to watch; a sustained break below it would extend the currency’s gains.
08 What to watch today
- Manufacturing PMI, September (Davivienda), 10:00 Bogotá / 15:00 UTC: forecast 52.9, previous 54.3.
- TES swap (Finance Ministry): the planned swap of TCOs maturing in October, November and January for longer TES.
- Reaction to the hike: analysts’ revised rate forecasts and any comments from the Banco de la República on its next steps will steer the peso and TES yields.
- US data: weekly jobless claims (07:30 Bogotá / 12:30 UTC; forecast 200,000) and the ISM manufacturing index (09:00 Bogotá / 14:00 UTC; forecast 55.0, previous 54.6).
- Oil: Brent’s November contract expired on Wednesday; the December contract now sets the benchmark for Ecopetrol.
Background: Colombia’s COLCAP Jumps 1.03% as the Peso Slides to 3,166.69 per Dollar.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the COLCAP?
The COLCAP is Colombia’s main stock index, tracking the largest and most-traded companies listed on the Bogotá stock exchange.
How did Colombian markets close on Wednesday, 30 September 2026?
The COLCAP fell 0.38% to 2,549 points. The peso gained 0.68%, closing at 3,307.50 per US dollar, from 3,330 on Tuesday.
What did Colombia’s central bank decide?
The Banco de la República raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 12.25% on 30 September. Four board members voted for the hike, two for a hold and one for a 50-basis-point increase. Most analysts had expected a hold.
Why did Colombian stocks fall while the peso rose?
Higher interest rates raise borrowing costs, which hurt rate-sensitive shares such as Cementos Argos, Terpel and Celsia. The same higher rates make peso assets more attractive, which supported the currency.
Source: RT live market data, close of Wednesday 30 September 2026; local closes from Acciones y Valores and BVC; Wednesday’s data from DANE, Fedesarrollo, the Banco de la República, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and ADP.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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