China’s Renewable Energy Dominance: A Global Game-Changer

China’s grip on renewable energy supply chains has tightened significantly, reshaping the global energy landscape.

In 2024, Chinese solar module manufacturers aim to produce over 750 gigawatts (GW) of modules, a 50% increase from 2023.

China now controls 80–100% of rare earth elements used in wind turbines and electric vehicles. It also holds a near-monopoly on polysilicon, silicon wafers, and cells for solar modules.

Chinese companies hold all top 5 positions in global solar panel manufacturing. In wind power, China’s farms generated a record 100.1 terawatt-hours in March 2024, surpassing Europe and North America combined.

Chinese firms captured 4 of the top 5 wind turbine manufacturer spots in 2024, up from 2 in 2022, with market share nearly doubling to 44.2%.

China produced about 60% of the world’s EVs in 2023, with BYD competing against Tesla for the largest EV manufacturer title. China also produces 75% of the world’s EV batteries.

This dominance raises concerns about supply chain vulnerabilities and geopolitical risks. China refines 90% of rare earth elements and 60–70% of lithium and cobalt.

Recent global events have led to price increases for key materials. Nickel prices quadrupled between 2019 and 2022, while cobalt and nickel prices doubled.

Consequently, battery prices rose by 10% in 2022, solar PV module prices increased by 25%, and wind turbine prices outside China rose by up to 20%.

China’s renewable energy installations are forecast to grow fourfold by 2050. Solar and wind will each generate 38% of China’s electricity by 2050, up from 7% and 8%, respectively, today.

However, coal still accounts for 56% of China’s energy mix. China consumes 26% of global primary energy and is responsible for one-third of energy-related CO2 emissions worldwide.

China’s Energy Transition

The pace of China’s energy transition is the most decisive factor in global emission trajectories.

Oil consumption in China is projected to peak before 2030 and decrease by more than half by 2050, while gas usage in 2050 is expected to remain at current levels.

In addition, nuclear power production is expected to more than double by 2050, maintaining a 5% share.

This rapid growth in renewable energy production and technology manufacturing has significant implications for global trade, energy security, and efforts to combat climate change.

It also raises concerns about fair competition and economic security in green value chains, particularly in the West.

The story of China’s renewable energy dominance underscores the intricate relationship between technological progress, geopolitics, and environmental goals.

It highlights the need for diversified supply chains and international cooperation to ensure a sustainable and secure energy future.