Key Facts
- Who. José Maria Neves, Cabo Verde’s president, backed by the PAICV (African Party for the Independence of Cabo Verde), seeks a second term against five rivals.
- What. Neves is skipping Friday’s second TV debate over remarks two rivals made at the first debate on 27 October.
- When. The first round is Sunday, 15 November; a runoff follows on Sunday, 29 November if nobody wins a majority.
- Unknown. We could not confirm whether the debate went ahead, and found no independent poll.
- Prediction markets. Polymarket, 2:22 p.m. ET, 6 November: Neves 94.0%, Joana Rosa 3.5%; US$35,336 traded.
This story is part of our coverage of the Cape Verde presidential election 2026. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
Latest: Cabo Verde Vote: What to Watch in Round One
Neves Pulls Out of the Second Debate
José Maria Neves, Cabo Verde’s president, will not take part in the second presidential debate on Friday, 6 November, on Televisão de Cabo Verde (TCV), the public broadcaster. His campaign says it formally notified the station, as part of our Cape Verde presidential election 2026 coverage.
The campaign cites remarks at the first debate, held on 27 October, which it calls "de extrema gravidade", or extremely serious. It says they breached mutual respect and democratic coexistence.
The campaign’s statement said: "A não participação neste segundo debate não representa uma recusa do contraditório ou do escrutínio público." In English, it says skipping the debate is not a refusal of challenge or public scrutiny.
What the Candidates Say
According to the Neves campaign, Casimiro de Pina, an independent who finished third in 2021, made criminal accusations and referred to a possible perpetual punishment of the president. It says Gilson Alves, another candidate, spoke of having Neves shot, using the word "fuzilamento".
Pina has replied that Neves had no reason to miss the debate, and Alves accuses him of cowardice and of abandoning voters. We could not independently verify what was said on 27 October.
Joana Rosa, a former justice minister backed by the Movement for Democracy (MpD), has challenged Neves to a face-to-face debate and criticised his absence. The MpD fell to 33 of 72 seats in the May parliamentary election, down from 38, while the PAICV won 37.
Six Candidates, One Clear Favourite
Six candidates are on the ballot: Neves, Rosa, Pina, Alves, Antero Tavares and Loisito Tavares de Sousa. In the 2021 first round Neves won 51.8% against 42.4% for Carlos Veiga, the runner-up, while abstention was about 52%.
We found no opinion poll from a named institute, so the only public gauge of the race is market pricing.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a platform where users trade real money on outcomes, Neves was priced at 94.0% and Rosa at 3.5% at 2:22 p.m. ET on 6 November, with US$35,336 traded. Prices are bets, not polls, and this is a thin market.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Dates That Matter
Campaigning ends on 13 November, and the first round is Sunday, 15 November. Under Presidential Decree 22/2026, which set the vote, a runoff follows on Sunday, 29 November if no candidate wins a majority of valid votes.
Cabo Verde is on UTC−1 all year, four hours ahead of US Eastern Time until March. The National Elections Commission (CNE), the official electoral body, will publish the official results.
What It Means for US Readers
For readers in the United States, the story is whether a stable island democracy’s campaign turns sour in its final nine days. Market prices are the fastest signal, but they are bets rather than polls, and our live election hub tracks both.
For background, see our guides to what to watch in round one and who holds power in Cabo Verde.
What Is Not Known
We could not confirm the start time of the 6 November debate, whether it went ahead or what was said. Readers should check TCV directly.
We have not confirmed polling hours for 15 November. No independent poll has been published that we could find.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is José Maria Neves skipping the debate?
His campaign cites remarks by rivals Casimiro de Pina and Gilson Alves at the first debate on 27 October. It says it is not refusing public scrutiny, while both rivals have criticised his absence.
When is Cabo Verde’s presidential election?
The first round is Sunday, 15 November 2026. A runoff follows on Sunday, 29 November if no candidate wins a majority of valid votes.
Who is favoured to win?
Polymarket gave Neves 94.0% at 2:22 p.m. ET on 6 November, but that is a thin market and a bet, not a poll. We found no independent poll from a named institute.
Sources: Neves campaign statement, Constitutional Court rulings on candidacies, National Elections Commission (CNE), Presidential Decree 22/2026, Polymarket (6 November 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief