Brazil’s Ibovespa Extends Record Run As Rates Hold, Tax Relief Advances

Brazilian equities notched an 11th straight gain and a fresh nominal record Wednesday, with the Ibovespa closing up 1.72% at 153,294.44 after touching 153,583.19 intraday.

The rally came as the central bank kept the Selic at 15.00% and signaled a steady, rules-based stance on inflation, while the Senate advanced income-tax relief that raises the exemption band and trims levies for lower-middle earners.

The real firmed, with the dollar settling near 5.36. Investors largely welcomed the mix of monetary vigilance and pro-work tax changes as supportive for consumption without abandoning fiscal prudence.

That backdrop contrasts with recent pushes for expansive public spending, which markets typically price as riskier for inflation and the currency.

Heavier index weights reinforced the move. Itaú and other banks climbed after strong results, while Petrobras and Vale rose nearly 2% despite a mixed day for commodities, as appetite for Brazil risk broadened beyond defensives.

Global cues helped. Wall Street advanced (Dow +0.48%, S&P 500 +0.37%, Nasdaq +0.65%) after a firmer ISM services reading and a modest ADP jobs gain, easing recession worries without reviving fears of runaway U.S. inflation. Europe followed higher; Asia was mixed after a sharp Tokyo pullback the day before.

Top five winners on the Ibovespa:

• Vamos (VAMO3) +8.66% — pre-earnings momentum and constructive guidance talk.
• C&A (CEAB3) +8.51% — upbeat quarterly print surprised to the upside.
• Assaí (ASAI3) +5.54% — retailers benefited from stronger BRL and risk-on tone.
• Auren (AURE3) +4.41% — infra/utilities bid as yields stabilized.
• Magazine Luiza (MGLU3) +4.30% — beta rebound extended.

Top five decliners:

• CSN (CSNA3) −4.60% — profit-taking after results despite resilient EBITDA.
• Yduqs (YDUQ3) −2.37% — broker downgrade weighed on sentiment.
• Motiva (MOTV3) −1.35% — light pullback after recent strength.
• Raízen (RAIZ4) −1.09% — mild weakness in sugars/biofuels complex.
• Suzano (SUZB3) −1.03% — fiber names lagged cyclicals.

Technically, the index rides the upper Bollinger band on both daily and 4-hour charts, with RSI in the low 80s and MACD positive—conditions consistent with a strong uptrend but susceptible to brief pauses.

First support sits near 151,400–151,900 on 4-hour moving averages, then 149,500–150,200 on the daily breakout shelf. Unless fiscal headlines turn looser or global risk sours, dips still look buyable.

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