Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for November 5, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open today with Itaú Unibanco posting a rock-solid Q3 recurring profit of $2.2 billion (+11% YoY) and a 23.3% ROE—proof that disciplined banking can thrive even as factories bleed.
September industrial output fell 0.4% MoM, the Selic strangles credit, and 50% U.S. tariffs gut exports. Yet the Ibovespa chalked its tenth straight gain yesterday, closing at a fresh record 150,704.20.
Across the Atlantic, U.S. off-year elections saw Democrats sweep blue-state governorships (Virginia, New Jersey) while voters backed conservative ballot measures—parental rights in Texas, gun-safety tweaks in Maine—signaling no clear tariff relief for Brazil’s battered manufacturers.
Today’s agenda delivers three make-or-break prints for the real and the Copom:
- 8:00 AM BRT – S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) | Prev: 46.0
A sub-50 reading locks in contraction, validating the 0.4% industrial plunge and tariff carnage. - 8:00 AM BRT – S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) | Prev: 46.3
Services employ 70% of Brazilians; any tick lower kills hopes of a domestic offset to factory pain. - 4:30 PM BRT – Copom Interest Rate Decision | Cons: 15.00% Prev: 15.00%
A unanimous hold cements credibility; any dovish whisper (Haddad’s “slash now” plea) risks a fiscal-premium spike in the BRL.
These matter because PMI confirms whether the Selic-tariff double punch is killing growth, while the Copom vote draws the line between monetary independence and populist sabotage—directly steering USD/BRL, Ibovespa futures, and Itaú-style bank resilience.
Key global highlights:
- 9:45 AM BRT – U.S. S&P Global Services PMI tracks American demand for Brazilian proteins and planes.
- 10:00 AM BRT – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (cons. 50.7) signals Fed pause length, dollar strength, and carry-trade appetite.
- 10:30 AM BRT – EIA Crude Inventories moves Petrobras and the oil-funded fiscal buffer.
Mexico watches Gross Fixed Investment (7:00 AM BRT, cons. –1.8% MoM) for tariff spill-over; Europe’s PPI (5:00 AM BRT) hints at commodity euro flows. Collectively, they frame Brazil’s external accounts as factories beg for oxygen.
Economic Agenda for November 5, 2025
Brazil
- 8:00 AM BRT – S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct)
Prev: 46.0
Implication: Sub-50 confirms sixth straight industrial contraction, tariff hemorrhage, and GDP drag. - 8:00 AM BRT – S&P Global Services PMI (Oct)
Prev: 46.3
Implication: Weak services = no domestic firewall against 15% Selic and 50% U.S. duties. - 4:30 PM BRT – Interest Rate Decision
Cons: 15.00% Prev: 15.00%
Implication: Hold = credibility premium; leak of cuts = 5.45–5.50 BRL spike.
Mexico
- 7:00 AM BRT – Gross Fixed Investments (MoM) (Aug)
Cons: –1.8% Prev: 1.6% - 7:00 AM BRT – Gross Fixed Investments (YoY) (Aug)
Cons: –7.8% Prev: –6.6% - 9:30 AM BRT – S&P Global Services PMI (Oct)
Prev: 46.3
Implication: Triple whammy probes near-shoring collapse and peso contagion to BRL.
United States
- 9:45 AM BRT – S&P Global Services PMI (Oct)
Cons: 55.2 Prev: 54.2 - 10:00 AM BRT – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
Cons: 50.7 Prev: 50.0 - 10:30 AM BRT – EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Cons: –2.5M Prev: –6.9M
Implication: Soft U.S. data eases dollar chokehold; oil draw lifts Petrobras and fiscal oil royalties.
Europe
- 5:00 AM BRT – PPI (MoM) (Sep)
Cons: 0.0% Prev: –0.3% - 5:00 AM BRT – PPI (YoY) (Sep)
Cons: –0.2% Prev: –0.6% - 9:45 AM BRT – Eurozone Services PMI (final)
Cons: 52.6 Prev: 51.3
Implication: Firmer eurozone demand buoys soy, pulp, and iron-ore euros into Brazilian coffers.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s PMI duo and Copom verdict answer whether 15% rates and 50% tariffs have broken the economy’s back.
U.S. services and oil steer dollar tides; Mexico’s investment collapse warns of regional contagion; European prices shape commodity inflows.
Together they dictate USD/BRL volatility, Ibovespa direction, and whether Itaú’s fortress banking can shield the broader market from industrial freefall.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
São Paulo’s B3 delivered a tenth consecutive gain and seventh straight all-time high on November 4, with the Ibovespa up 0.17% to 150,704.20 points despite global risk-off and Senate delays on betting/fintech tax bills.
Klabin, Banco do Brasil, and Itaú Unibanco (+1.66%) led; volume robust on foreign inflows betting on Copom discipline.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. indices tanked Tuesday, November 4. S&P 500 –1.2% to 6,771.55, Dow –0.5%, Nasdaq –2% (Palantir –7.9%, Nvidia –4%). Tech rout plus 35-day government shutdown erased post-election relief; YTD gains trimmed to +15.1% (S&P), +20.9% (Nasdaq).
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
Mexican peso and IPC retreated amid global uncertainty, tariff fears, and weak fixed-investment outlook; stocks erased early gains as dollar strength punished EM carry.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
Merval surged 3.2%, peso stabilized, and energy names led as Milei’s coalition digested midterm wins and pushed privatization agenda.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
Colombian peso steadied and stocks climbed, shrugging off Wall Street gloom on firm oil and coffee prices plus carry-trade revival.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
Chilean peso held ground, copper-exposed shares advanced, but tech sell-off and dollar rally capped gains.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real weakened to 5.3989 BRL/USD on November 4, hit by Senate gridlock on R$6.7 billion fiscal bills, Haddad’s rate-cut saber-rattling, and DXY surge to 100.255 amid U.S. shutdown and hawkish Fed whispers.
Cryptocurrencies
A $128 million Balancer DeFi hack triggered $1.2 billion liquidations and panic selling; Bitcoin breached $100,000 and the 200-day MA, dragging global crypto cap lower in lockstep with Nasdaq’s tech rout.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Banking shines—Itaú’s 23.3% ROE and 37.7% efficiency beacon. Industry drowns—September output –0.4% MoM, 14.8% below 2011 peak, strangled by 15% Selic and 50% U.S. tariffs on cars/wood.
Key Developments
Itaú Unibanco Q3 recurring profit $2.2 billion (+11%), credit book +6.4% to R$1.4 trillion, NPL steady at 2.0%—fortress balance sheet.
Industrial output down 0.4% in September; factories 14.8% below 2011 levels as Selic credit crunch meets 50% U.S. duties.
Senate stalls betting/fintech tax and income-tax exemption bills—R$6.7 billion revenue hole widens fiscal risk premium.
Embraer Q3: orders up, profits down—trade headwinds exact “real price.”
Eve Air Mobility fights global eVTOL giants amid capital burn.
Shell’s $1 billion lifeline to Raizen; debt trap lingers.
Focus Report: recovery hinges on “hard choices”—rate path, tariffs, fiscal anchor.
BB Seguridade, TIM, Copasa Q3: mixed resilience snapshot.
Tegma, Pague Menos, Energisa Q3: retail/logistics squeezed, utilities hold.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+2.75%
184,656.60
+2.75%
64,838.57
+0.50%
11,315.26
-1.14%
3,093,014
+1.43%
2,488.06
+0.72%
59,515.48
+0.10%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 184,656.60 | +2.75% | +21.85% | 179,722.48 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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