Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for March 26, 2025
Brazilian markets face a critical day today, shaped by key domestic economic releases at 07:30 AM (BRT) including the Current Account and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) data for February, which will shed light on Brazil’s trade balance and attractiveness to foreign capital amid ongoing inflationary pressures and global uncertainties.
At 01:30 PM (BRT), Foreign Exchange Flows will provide further insight into currency movements and capital inflows, critical for the Brazilian real’s trajectory.
These indicators are pivotal as they reflect Brazil’s external economic health, influencing investor confidence and monetary policy expectations following yesterday’s Copom Meeting Minutes, which highlighted a tougher stance on inflation.
Globally, U.S. economic data such as Durable Goods Orders at 08:30 AM (EST), Crude Oil Inventories at 09:30 AM and 10:30 AM (EST), and FOMC Member Kashkari’s speech at 10:00 AM (EST) will drive sentiment around manufacturing, energy prices, and Fed policy direction—key factors for Brazil’s commodity exports and risk appetite.
In Europe, the UK’s CPI data at 03:00 AM (CET) and Spain’s Q4 GDP at 07:00 AM (CET) will impact global inflation expectations and Eurozone growth perceptions, potentially affecting Brazil’s currency and trade dynamics.
Economic Agenda for March 26, 2025
Brazil
07:30 AM – Current Account (USD) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous -8.65B. Tracks Brazil’s international trade and income balance, signaling external vulnerabilities or strengths.
07:30 AM – Foreign Direct Investment (USD) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 6.50B. Measures foreign investment inflows, a gauge of long-term confidence in Brazil’s economy.
01:30 PM – Foreign Exchange Flows: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous -2.319B. Reflects currency movements and capital flows, critical for exchange rate stability.
Canada
08:30 AM – Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 1.2%. Indicates wholesale trade activity and economic momentum in a key trading partner.
United States
08:30 AM – Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus -1.1%, previous 3.1%. Tracks orders for long-lasting goods, signaling manufacturing health.
08:30 AM – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus 0.2%, previous 0.0%. Excludes volatile transportation items for a clearer trend.
09:30 AM – Crude Oil Inventories: Actual TBD, consensus 1.500M, previous 1.745M. Energy market driver affecting oil prices.
10:00 AM – FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks: Remarks may signal potential U.S. monetary policy shifts.
10:30 AM – Crude Oil Inventories: Actual TBD, consensus 1.500M, previous 1.745M. Weekly update on U.S. oil stockpiles.
10:30 AM – Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous -1.009M. Key regional oil storage data.
11:30 AM – Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1): Actual TBD, consensus -1.8%, previous -1.8%. Real-time GDP growth estimate.
01:00 PM – 5-Year Note Auction: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 4.123%. Tracks Treasury yields and borrowing costs.
United Kingdom
03:00 AM – CPI (MoM) (Feb): Actual 0.4%, consensus 0.5%, previous -0.1%. Monthly inflation rate affecting purchasing power.
03:00 AM – CPI (YoY) (Feb): Actual 2.8%, consensus 3.0%, previous 3.0%. Annual inflation influencing Bank of England policy.
03:00 AM – CPIH (YoY) (Feb): Actual 3.7%, consensus TBD, previous 3.9%. Annual inflation including housing costs.
06:00 AM – Spring Forecast Statement: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. UK economic and fiscal outlook update.
Spain
07:00 AM – Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q4): Actual TBD, consensus 0.8%, previous 0.8%. Quarterly growth reflecting Spain’s economic performance.
France
07:00 AM – France Jobseekers Total (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 3,162.0K. Tracks unemployment trends in France.
Eurozone
07:00 AM – European Central Bank Non-monetary Policy Meeting: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Discusses administrative or operational matters.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Brazilian stock market opened on a positive note this Wednesday morning, with the Ibovespa index trading at 132,450 points as of 6:41 AM GMT (3:41 AM BRT), showing a 0.29% increase from yesterday’s close.
The USD/BRL exchange rate is currently at R$ 5.7043, down 0.09% from yesterday’s close of R$ 5.7092, extending the 0.75% decline observed on Tuesday. The Brazilian real’s strength reflects a commodity rally and favorable market sentiment, despite Monday’s pressures.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
Wall Street followed up one of its best days of the last year with a quiet performance. The S&P 500 rose 0.2% Tuesday to 5,776.65 after jumping 1.8% Monday on hopes that President Donald Trump’s tariffs may not be as sweeping as feared.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged barely higher to 42,587.50, and the Nasdaq composite added 0.5% to 18,271.86. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 0.7% to 2,095.38.
Trump Media & Technology Group jumped to one of the market’s bigger gains after announcing a deal to offer “America First” investment funds. But signs are piling up that Trump’s tariffs are making U.S. consumers more worried about the economy’s future.
Commodities
Oil Prices
Brent continues its rally amid Venezuelan tariffs and diplomatic breakthroughs, supporting Brazil’s Petrobras and oil exports.
Gold Prices
Gold maintains resilience at $3,025, despite market headwinds, benefiting Brazil’s mining sector amid global uncertainty.
Copper Prices
Copper hits $9,813, driven by U.S.-China dynamics and a historic rally, strengthening Brazil’s export outlook.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin holds steady at $87K, while SHIB soars nearly 10%, influencing Brazil’s fintech sentiment.
Companies and Market
Central Bank: Signals a tougher stance on Brazil’s rising inflation, shaping monetary policy expectations.
Industry: High rates hit output, but Brazil’s industry hires on, showing resilience.
Consumer Confidence: Wealthy Brazilians drive a small rebound, though broader struggles persist.
Economic Outlook: The latest Focus Report predicts Brazil’s economic squeeze, highlighting challenges ahead.
JSL: Brazilian logistics giant reports a 56.5% profit decline amid growth challenges.
Vamos: Reports strong Q4 2024 growth as the truck leasing business flourishes.
Sabesp: Posts record profits following privatization, with 172% annual growth.
Copasa: Currency volatility slashes Q4 2024 profits despite record annual investment.
Petrobras: Strikes hydrocarbons in Campos Basin, signaling new life for aging fields.
Brisanet: Expansion costs drive a 93% profit drop in Q4 2024, despite higher revenue.
WDC Networks: Stock soars 32% as financials show robust recovery.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.46%
183,827.59
+0.46%
65,110.57
+0.26%
11,055.91
-0.73%
2,782,561
+0.00%
2,558.92
-0.79%
60,220.45
+0.32%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,827.59 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 182,991.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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