Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 31, 2025
Brazilian financial markets enter the week’s final trading session ready to assess recent domestic employment and debt data, as well as crucial U.S. inflation and spending reports.
At 7:00 AM, Brazil will publish the Unemployment Rate (December), offering insight into the labor market’s strength, while at 6:30 AM, the Gross Debt-to-GDP ratio (December) will shed light on fiscal health.
Across the Americas, eyes will turn to the U.S. at 8:30 AM for the Core PCE Price Index (MoM/YoY), widely regarded as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Simultaneously, the Employment Cost Index (Q4) will provide additional context on wage pressures.
Personal Spending (MoM) at the same hour reveals how resilient consumers are amid recent interest rate stability, and the Chicago PMI (January) at 9:45 AM will reflect manufacturing momentum in the Midwest.
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The afternoon brings energy-related figures such as the Baker Hughes Oil and Total Rig Counts (1:00 PM) and the CFTC speculative net positions (3:30 PM) for crude oil, gold, and major equity indices, underscoring shifts in institutional sentiment.
In Europe, Germany’s Retail Sales (MoM) at 2:00 AM and Unemployment Rate (January) at 3:55 AM will be pivotal to understanding the Eurozone’s largest economy. French CPI (MoM) and HICP (MoM) arrive around 2:10 AM, while the U.K. releases the Nationwide House Price Index (MoM/YoY) at 2:00 AM, spotlighting property market trends.
All these indicators matter for Brazil, a commodity-driven economy sensitive to global demand, trade disputes, and capital flows. With domestic unemployment and debt figures in focus, alongside fresh U.S. inflation readings and ongoing tariff chatter, local markets will gauge how these global developments shape risk appetite and credit conditions at home.
Economic Agenda for January 2, 2025
Brazil and Latin America
Brazil
- 7:00 AM – Unemployment Rate (Dec)
- 6:30 AM – Gross Debt-to-GDP ratio (MoM) (Dec)
The Americas
United States
- 8:30 AM – Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Dec)
- 8:30 AM – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Dec)
- 8:30 AM – Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q4)
- 8:30 AM – FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
- 8:30 AM – PCE Price index (YoY) (Dec)
- 8:30 AM – PCE Price index (MoM) (Dec)
- 8:30 AM – Personal Spending (MoM) (Dec)
- 9:45 AM – Chicago PMI (Jan)
- 10:30 AM – Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1)
- 1:00 PM – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
- 1:00 PM – U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count
- 3:30 PM – CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions
- 3:30 PM – CFTC Gold speculative net positions
- 3:30 PM – CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions
- 3:30 PM – CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions
Canada
- 8:30 AM – GDP (MoM) (Nov)
- 8:31 AM – GDP (MoM) (Dec)
Europe
Germany
- 2:00 AM – Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
- 3:55 AM – Unemployment Change (Jan)
- 3:55 AM – Unemployment Rate (Jan)
- 8:00 AM – CPI (YoY) (Jan)
- 8:00 AM – CPI (MoM) (Jan)
Eurozone
- 3:30 PM – CFTC EUR speculative net positions
France
- 2:10 AM – CPI (MoM) (Jan)
- 2:10 AM – HICP (MoM) (Jan)
Rest of the World
China
- All Day – Holiday: Chinese New Year
Singapore
- No major releases scheduled.
Hong Kong
- All Day – Holiday: Chinese New Year
Japan
- 3:30 PM – CFTC JPY speculative net positions
Australia
- 3:30 PM – CFTC AUD speculative net positions
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Brazilian stock market ended 2024 on a high note, with the Ibovespa surging over 3,000 points. The index closed at 126,912.78 points, a 2.82 gain, hitting an intraday peak of 127,168.82 points. This marked the first time Ibovespa surpassed 127,000 in the closing days of the year.
The U.S. dollar weakened further against the real, settling at R$ 5.8528, marking its ninth straight session of decline. Observers attribute this trend to signs of economic stability and supportive interest rates, attracting overseas capital into Brazilian assets.
Local sentiment was also shaped by the Central Bank’s recent decision to maintain the Selic rate at 13.25, in line with market consensus. While the high rate environment underpins currency inflows, it raises concerns over debt servicing costs and broader economic expansion.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
In the final trading session of the year, Wall Street’s main indices finished in positive territory:
- Dow Jones 0.38 at 44,882.13 points
- S&P 500 0.53 at 6,071.17 points
- Nasdaq 0.25 at 19,681.75 points
Investors weighed the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep its benchmark rate between 4.25 and 4.50, with Chair Jerome Powell reiterating there is no immediate urgency to alter policy given anchored inflation expectations.
Meanwhile, former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 25 tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, effective January 1, fueling concerns over potential supply-chain disruptions in North America.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices
Oil continues its rollercoaster ride, swayed by Trump’s tariff announcements and anticipation around possible OPEC moves. Brazil’s export revenues could face volatility if global economic sentiment cools or retaliatory measures impact demand.
Gold Prices
Gold hit new heights amid U.S. protectionist signals and the softer dollar. Analysts note that geopolitical risk and currency weakness typically enhance gold’s safe-haven appeal. Rising prices may benefit Brazilian gold producers and support mining-related equities.
Bitcoin Prices
Bitcoin remained above 105,000, buoyed by growing institutional adoption. Market watchers suggest continued corporate and fund interest may keep digital assets on an upward trajectory, though volatility remains a hallmark of crypto trading.
Companies and Markets
Brazil Adds 1.7 Million Jobs in 2024: A surprisingly resilient labor market, may support consumer spending and help offset some drag from higher interest rates.
Neoenergia Offloads Key Asset: A strategic shift in Brazil’s energy sector is underway.The move suggests ongoing realignments among power producers seeking leaner portfolios.
BRICS Gains Ground in Production Goods highlighting Brazil’s potential pivot toward emerging-market partnerships, point to strengthened trade ties among BRICS nations, potentially reshaping global supply chains.
Outlook
As 2025 begins, Brazil’s immediate focus will be on fresh labor data and debt figures that can guide domestic fiscal and monetary policy decisions. Internationally, U.S. inflation indicators, consumer spending insights, and tariff developments carry weight for global sentiment. While holiday closures in parts of Asia could reduce market volumes, any unexpected policy shifts—particularly around trade—may spark volatility.
Looking ahead, the interplay between robust local job creation, high interest rates, and external demand from trade partners will dictate the tone for Brazil’s equities, currency, and debt markets. The new year’s first data releases will set the stage for whether 2025 extends last year’s market optimism or encounters fresh headwinds from global economic and geopolitical shifts.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.46%
183,827.59
+0.46%
65,071.30
+0.20%
11,055.91
-0.73%
2,782,561
-0.59%
2,558.92
-0.79%
60,220.45
+0.32%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,827.59 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 182,991.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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