Brazil Polls Show Tight Governor Races in Pará and Alagoas

Two States, Two Close Races

Brazil’s state elections run alongside the October 4 presidential vote. New polling this month shows just how unsettled two of those state races remain.

Pollsters surveyed voters in Pará and Alagoas in the first two weeks of September. Both states now show contests too close to call outright.

Neither race has an incumbent seeking re-election. Pará’s Helder Barbalho is term-limited after two consecutive terms.

Alagoas’s Paulo Dantas, by contrast, chose not to run. He has said publicly he will seek no office at all in 2026.

Pará: A Technical Tie At The Top

Real Time Big Data surveyed 1,600 Pará voters from September 3 to 7. It found Hana Ghassan of the MDB at 37 percent and Podemos candidate Daniel at 35 percent.

With a margin of error of 2 points, the race sits within reach for either candidate. Araceli of the PSol trailed with 5 percent, while 8 percent said they would cast a blank or null vote.

Another 14 percent of respondents declined to answer at all. That undecided share is large enough on its own to swing the outcome once the campaign enters its final weeks.

In a simulated runoff, Real Time put Ghassan ahead of Daniel, 40 percent to 36 percent. That gap is still inside the poll’s own margin of error.

A Second Pollster Agrees It’s Close

An earlier Quaest poll, conducted August 25 to 28, told a similar story. It had Daniel at 28 percent and Ghassan at 27 percent, also a statistical tie.

Quaest’s simulated runoff showed the two candidates dead even, at 36 percent apiece. Different pollsters, different topline numbers, but the same basic picture: Pará’s governor race is up for grabs.

The same Quaest survey found Pará’s Senate race far more settled. Term-limited Governor Helder Barbalho is running for Senate instead, and he led with 23 percent.

Delegado Éder Mauro followed at 14 percent, with Zequinha Marinho at 11 percent. No other Senate candidate cracked double digits in that same poll.

Alagoas: Two Polls, Two Frontrunners

Alagoas offers a messier picture. AtlasIntel surveyed 1,208 voters from September 4 to 9.

It found JHC of the PSDB leading Renan Filho of the MDB. The margin was 49.3 percent against 46.4 percent.

In AtlasIntel’s runoff simulation, JHC extended that edge slightly, to 49.9 percent against 46.7 percent. With a 3-point margin of error, the race was effectively tied either way.

Then, days later, a different pollster flipped the script. Real Time Big Data surveyed 1,600 Alagoas voters from September 10 to 14.

That poll found Renan Filho ahead instead, 46 percent to 43 percent for JHC. The lead changed hands depending on which firm was asking.

Why The Two Polls Disagree

Pollsters use different turnout models and question wording, which can shift results by several points. Both firms’ Alagoas numbers technically fall within striking distance of each other once margins of error are applied.

What is not in dispute is Governor Paulo Dantas’s own standing. Real Time found his approval rating at 61 percent, against 35 percent disapproval and 4 percent with no opinion.

A more detailed breakdown found 40 percent rating his government as excellent or good. Another 29 percent called it average, and 30 percent rated it negatively.

The two questions measure slightly different things: general approval versus a graded performance review. Together, they still point to a governor most Alagoas voters view favorably.

The Dantas Factor

Dantas is not on the ballot himself, but he is far from a bystander. He is actively campaigning for Renan Filho, his political ally, according to the Real Time report.

A popular incumbent’s endorsement can matter more in a tight race than in a lopsided one. If Alagoas stays this close through October, Dantas’s 61 percent approval rating could end up being the deciding factor.

JHC, for his part, is running as the change candidate against an administration voters largely still like. That is a harder pitch to make when approval numbers are this high.

What Comes Next

Both states vote for governor on the same day as Brazil’s presidential first round, October 4. A runoff, if needed, would follow later that month.

With multiple pollsters now active in both states, expect the numbers to keep moving. Neither Pará nor Alagoas looks like a race anyone can call with confidence yet.

Both contests will also be shaped by whatever happens at the top of the ticket. A strong national showing for either major coalition could pull undecided state voters along with it.

Even so, governors’ races in Brazil rarely move in perfect lockstep with the presidential contest overhead. Local dynamics, and the size of each state’s undecided vote, will likely decide both outcomes.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error