São Paulo Grand Prix: Brazil’s unstable weather could affect Mercedes-Red Bull dispute

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Max Verstappen secured a 19-point lead over Lewis Hamilton in the fight for the Formula 1 drivers’ championship by winning last Sunday’s race in Mexico, marking his second victory in three weeks.

Red Bull also reduced Mercedes’ lead in the constructors’ championship as Sergio Pérez finished 3rd, narrowing the constructor’s gap to a single point with 4 races to go.

Andrew Shovlin of Mercedes pointed out that there were still large performance gaps between Mercedes and Red Bull, which is unusual at this stage of the season, after the silver arrows barely dominated in Turkey 3 races ago.

“Normally at this point in the season you see the performance settle down a bit, but at this point the fluctuations remain wide,” Shovlin said.

“There will be circuits that suit us. We had very strong races in Turkey and Sochi, and some more since the summer break, so there will be ups and downs, and there’s no doubt we have a lot of work ahead of us.”

“But I think overall, they are somewhat ahead of us, but they could be affected by the weather and track temperatures. But the most important thing will be the track features, and it seems like when we’re on a low-grip track, we tend to run a little bit better.”

“The last two races have been very much about the rear tires overheating, and it’s safe to say that from what we’ve seen over the past two weeks, it’s very clear that they (Red Bull) have the advantage when we’re in that situation.”

Asked about what the standings might be in Brazil, Shovlin said that “it will somewhat depend on the weather there,” as “it’s inherently very unstable” at Interlagos.

The track has hosted several wet races, most notably in 2008 and 2012, when the Brazilian Grand Prix decided to hold the championship in wet conditions, but the last time such conditions occurred on a Sunday was in 2016, when Hamilton claimed victory.

Shovlin believes that warmer conditions will likely play in Red Bull’s favor, similarly to their race in Mexico, but he considered that the weather would be impossible to forecast.

“You can have a 50-degree track one day, and the next it can be a disaster,” Shovlin said.

“With a hot track, they will probably get ahead. A few clouds might come in handy for us, but one of the advantages they had [in Mexico] was that they were able to go up a step in downforce from the rear spoiler which they normally run to its maximum.”

“For us it was using the one we normally have. It’s just that their car seems to have more downforce than ours with identical sized spoilers, and I think that played in their favor. In Brazil that should be less of an issue, but it’s very hard to forecast.”

“As we did coming [to Mexico], we will analyze our car’s weak spots and look for ways to minimize them.”

With information from Motorsport

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