Moraes Leads Two Pending Brazil Court Cases

BRAZIL · POLITICS

One Supreme Court justice in Brasília leads two cases that could reshape Brazilian politics after Lula’s election win. Neither has been decided.

Alexandre de Moraes, a justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court, leads two cases that could shape Brazilian politics. One tests a law that could cut 8 January 2023 rioters’ sentences; the other could reset plea-deal rules.

Neither case is decided, and as of Tuesday, 3 November 2026 the court has set no date for either. A third matter involves Moraes without being his case: a paused court vote on police material that mentions him.

The Sentencing Law Under Challenge

Congress enacted Law 15.402/2026, the Lei da Dosimetria (sentencing law), on Friday, 8 May 2026, overriding President Lula’s veto. It eases sentencing rules for crimes against democracy, including the 8 January 2023 attack on Brasília’s government buildings.

The Brazilian Press Association, a journalists’ group, and the left-wing PSOL-Rede party federation filed two challenges that same day. The court numbered them ADI 7966 and 7967, actions against a law’s validity; Moraes is the relator, the lead judge.

Moraes asked the presidency and Congress for information, then ruled on Saturday, 9 May. He suspended the law in specific sentence-execution cases tied to 8 January until the full court decides.

Convictions stay in force. Earlier Rio Times reports cover the suspension and the freeze on sentence reductions.

The Plea-Deal Case Waiting for a Date

A second case is ADPF 919, filed in 2021 by the Workers’ Party (PT), Lula’s party. An ADPF is a petition asking the court to declare that a public act breaks the constitution; Moraes is the relator.

Moraes cleared the case for judgment by the full court in early April 2026, and Fachin sets the agenda. The party asks for constitutional limits on plea bargains, known in Brazil as delação premiada, where suspects trade information for lighter penalties.

It asks that claims backed only by other plea deals not support a conviction. It also asks that named suspects can contest the deals, and that deals signed in pretrial detention be void.

The prosecutor-general’s office, then led by Augusto Aras, opposed the action in 2022 and said lawmakers should set such rules. Press reports say a ruling could limit a plea offer from Daniel Vorcaro, ex-owner of fraud-hit Banco Master.

The Paused Vote Involving Moraes

On Tuesday, 15 September, the full court began deciding whether to judge two Banco Master petitions together, numbers 16662 and 16704. Petition 16662 stems from a report by Brazil’s Federal Police, drawn from Vorcaro’s phone, citing alleged dialogues related to Moraes.

Petition 16704 rests on a police intelligence report suggesting irregularities in Justice André Mendonça’s handling of the Master case. The prosecutor-general’s office asked the court to annul the first report.

Justice Flávio Dino asked for more time, which suspended the discussion. Four justices had voted against joining the petitions, including Fachin, and three in favour, including Moraes.

Justice Kassio Nunes Marques stepped aside, citing his role as president of the electoral court during the election. Justice Dias Toffoli declared himself unable to take part, for personal reasons.

The court did not examine the merits, and Fachin said no criminal liability is being judged. Moraes has not been charged, and he told the court no formal investigation has been opened.

On 29 October Fachin kept the Master case at the presidency for up to 90 days, a Rio Times report explains. Dino returning the file is one event that can end that hold early.

Where Bolsonaro’s Appeal Stands

Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s ex-president, is serving 27 years and 3 months for the attempted coup. His lawyers filed a request on 8 May to review the conviction, an exceptional remedy for final sentences.

Justice Nunes Marques was drawn as relator on Monday, 11 May, and Prosecutor-General Paulo Gonet opposed the request on 16 June. Moraes is not the relator there, but the sentencing law could still affect Bolsonaro’s sentence.

Lula won the Sunday, 25 October runoff. Bolsonaro’s son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, lost and is in the United States, as this report on his US case explains.

What It Means for US Readers

US investors in Brazilian stocks, ADRs (US-listed shares of foreign firms) and bonds should treat the court calendar as political risk. No ruling in these cases has a date, so delays can keep that risk elevated.

Nothing here changes visas, flights or entry rules for US travellers. The Brazil hub and the Brazil Elections 2026 page follow the political fallout.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket, a US real-money prediction market, gave a 4.6% chance on 3 November (2:23 a.m. ET) that Moraes leaves the court. About US$262,000 has traded, and the market runs to 31 December 2026.

The last trade was at 6.1%, above the 4.6% midpoint price. Bets are not polls, and they show sentiment, not outcomes.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What Is Not Known

The court has not said when it will judge the plea-deal case or the sentencing-law challenges. It is also unclear when Dino will return the Banco Master petitions.

No court document shows that Moraes delayed any case on purpose. Press reports say Vorcaro offered a plea deal, but its status is unconfirmed.

What Comes Next

The next signals are a date from Fachin for the plea-deal case and a return of the Master petitions by Dino. A hearing date for the sentencing-law challenges would matter too, though a hearing does not mean a ruling is near.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is Alexandre de Moraes?

He is a justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court, the country’s top court. He led the coup case against Jair Bolsonaro and is lead judge on the sentencing-law and plea-deal cases in this story.

What does a reporting judge do?

The lead judge, called the relator, studies the case first and writes the lead opinion. He or she can also issue urgent orders before the full court votes.

Has Moraes been accused of wrongdoing?

No charge has been filed against him. The full court has paused a vote on petitions built on police reports that mention him.

Could Jair Bolsonaro be freed soon?

Nothing in these cases frees him. His review request is with another justice, and the prosecutor-general opposes it.

Does this affect US travellers?

No. Court cases in Brasília do not change visa, flight or entry rules. US visitors face no new requirements.

Sources: Supreme Federal Court (STF), ADI 7966 and 7967; STF, Master petitions, 15 September 2026; STF, ADPF 919; Polymarket market data, 3 November 2026 (all accessed 3 November 2026).