Agriculture: Brazil
Brazil’s fields are still on course for a giant harvest, but the government’s forecast has just lost a little weight. Conab, Brazil’s federal crop-supply agency, said on Friday 13 November 2026 that it now expects 366.1 million tonnes of grain, down from 367.1 million tonnes on 15 October.
The cut is small, yet the details matter to American farmers, who compete with Brazil for export customers. Our Friday grains wrap covers the market side, and this article covers what the new survey says.
Key Facts
—Estimate. Conab, Brazil’s crop-supply agency, now sees 366.1 million tonnes of grain for the 2026/27 season.
—Change. That is 1.0 million tonnes below the 367.1 million tonnes it forecast on 15 October.
—Soybeans. About 181.6 million tonnes on 49.3 million hectares (122 million acres), the same total as in October.
—Corn. Up to about 148 million tonnes across all three Brazilian crops, on 23.7 million hectares.
—Power Index. Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 74.2 points (November 2026 edition).
Brazil’s grain forecast slipped by about 0.3% in a month, but the crop is still set to be very large. Soybeans hold steady, while wheat and other winter crops shrink.
Why a Small Cut Still Matters to US Farmers
Brazil and the United States sell soybeans and corn to many of the same buyers abroad. When Brazil’s expected crop or stocks change, the supply that US farmers compete against changes with it.
Conab’s new total is 1.0 million tonnes below its 15 October figure of 367.1 million tonnes, a cut of 0.27%. The agency said on Friday 13 November that larger areas of corn, sorghum, cotton and soybeans reinforce the trend of growing production.
What the Conab Survey Shows
Conab said farmers planted 85.3 million hectares, 1.9 million more than in 2025/26. The national average yield is about 4,290 kilograms per hectare, about 1% below last season.
Soybeans are put at about 181.6 million tonnes on 49.3 million hectares, a yield of 3,683 kilograms per hectare. The first survey on 15 October also gave 181.6 million tonnes, so the cut sits elsewhere.
Corn across all three of Brazil’s crops is put at up to about 148 million tonnes on 23.7 million hectares, an area 4.9% larger. The average yield is 2.3% below 2025/26, while first-crop corn alone is 32.1 million tonnes on 4.5 million hectares, up 10.7% in area.
Per the survey tables, Conab now sees corn exports of about 43.0 million tonnes in the 2026/27 cycle. Its forecast for corn stocks at the end of that cycle is about 20.9 million tonnes.
Winter crops are the weak spot, with a planted area of about 3 million hectares, down 10.7%. Wheat is put at 5.3 million tonnes, down 33.2%, and rice at about 10.6 million tonnes on 1.5 million hectares.
What Is Not Known
It is not confirmed whether the report moved any grain prices. No soybean export figure and no second-crop corn split are confirmed here either.
Conab publishes further surveys through the season, but the date of the next one is not confirmed. Each later survey can move the national total up or down again.
What It Means for You
For anyone following grain markets or farm stocks, the headline cut is too small to change the picture of a very large Brazilian crop. The details, a much smaller wheat crop and a corn export forecast of about 43 million tonnes, are the part to read.
Farm credit in Brazil is a separate story: see how Banco do Brasil says big farm borrowers skip payments and what the farm debt relief bill does. Our Brazil market report for 13 November shows how local assets traded, and our Brazil news hub collects the rest.
In Plain English
—Tonne. A metric tonne is 1,000 kilograms. One million tonnes is about 1.1 million US short tons.
—Hectare. A hectare is 10,000 square metres. It is about 2.5 acres.
—Yield. Yield is the harvest per hectare. A lower yield on more land can still mean a bigger total crop.
—Conab. Conab is a federal agency under Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry. It runs the survey series for each crop year, and this is the second for 2026/27.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Conab change in its crop estimate?
Conab cut its 2026/27 grain estimate to 366.1 million tonnes on Friday 13 November 2026. That is 1.0 million tonnes below the 367.1 million tonnes it gave on 15 October.
How big is Brazil’s soybean crop?
Conab puts it at about 181.6 million tonnes on 49.3 million hectares. That is the same figure as in its October survey.
Why should US readers care?
Brazil competes with US farmers for soybean and corn buyers abroad. A change in Brazil’s crop or corn stocks alters the supply those buyers can choose from.
Sources
Conab, second survey of the 2026/27 grain crop, 13 November 2026 · Conab survey page
Published Saturday 14 November 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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