Rio Times Markets · Brazil
Key Facts
•What. Brazilian industrial confidence fell 6.0 points to 40.2 in November 2026, the lowest since May 2020.
•Versus forecast. The consensus forecast on the Rio Times economic calendar was 46.5, so the reading missed by 6.3 points.
•The streak. The index, where 50 separates optimism from pessimism, has stayed below 50 for 23 months in a row.
•Where it hurts. Owners’ expectations for the coming months fell 7.8 points to 41.5, and their outlook for the economy fell 10.7 points to 32.7.
•Power Index. Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 74.2 points (November 2026 edition).
Brazil’s factory owners lost confidence sharply in November. The industry confidence index of the CNI, the national industry confederation, fell to its weakest level since early in the pandemic.
What Changed
The CNI, Brazil’s National Confederation of Industry, said on Friday, 13 November 2026 that its Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index (ICEI) fell from 46.2 in October to 40.2 in November. A reading below 50 means pessimism, and the last time the index was lower was in May 2020, when it stood at 34.7.
The 6.0-point drop was the third-largest monthly fall since the series began in 2010, according to the CNI. The consensus forecast on the Rio Times economic calendar was 46.5, so the result missed by 6.3 points.
Why It Matters
Confidence surveys measure mood, not output. A fall this large in one month tells us that factory owners are markedly gloomier about their own business and about the economy than they were in October.
The expectations index fell 7.8 points, from 49.3 to 41.5, and its gauge for the Brazilian economy fell 10.7 points to 32.7, the lowest since April 2020. Their outlook for their own companies fell 6.4 points to 45.6, below 50 for the first time in six years.
The Current Picture
The current-conditions index fell 2.3 points to 37.7, the lowest since July 2020. Within it, owners’ view of the Brazilian economy dropped 2.7 points to 30.6 and their view of their own firms dropped 2.1 points to 41.2.
The CNI polled 1,104 companies between 3 and 9 November 2026: 463 small, 407 medium and 234 large. The published figures name no single cause for the fall.
What It Means for You
For a reader holding Brazilian industrial shares, directly or through US-listed receipts (ADRs), this is a warning about sentiment, not a measure of sales. It becomes more important if the next hard data on factory output and orders also weaken.
For anyone doing business with Brazilian manufacturers, a mood this low can mean more cautious ordering and slower investment. One survey cannot show that, and December’s reading is the first test.
What Is Not Known
The cause of the November fall is not stated in the published figures. The breakdown by industrial sector is also not known.
What to Watch
The December reading of the same CNI index is the next checkpoint, and a move back above 46 would show the November drop was partly a one-off. Hard data on Brazilian industrial output would show whether the gloom has reached production.
Our earlier coverage of <a href=”https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil/”>Brazil</a> includes the <a href=”https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-factory-confidence-october-2026/”>October factory confidence report</a> and the <a href=”https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-retail-sales-september-2026/”>September retail sales release</a>. Both give context for how household demand and factory mood have moved.
Sources: CNI (National Confederation of Industry), Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index, November 2026 release, 13 November 2026, portaldaindustria.com.br; forecast from the RT economic calendar. This is news, not investment advice.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much did Brazil’s industrial confidence fall in November 2026?
The CNI index fell 6.0 points to 40.2 from 46.2 in October. It is the lowest reading since May 2020.
What does a reading below 50 mean?
It means pessimism: more business owners are negative than positive. The index has been below 50 for 23 months in a row.
Was the fall expected?
No. The consensus forecast on the Rio Times economic calendar was 46.5, so the result missed by 6.3 points.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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