Brazil Runoff Poll Puts Flávio Bolsonaro One Point Ahead of Lula

Key Facts

—The country — Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy and most populous country, with about 210 million people. It elects a president next month, and a runoff follows when nobody wins outright.

—The background — The race is between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Every published survey carries a registration number from the Superior Electoral Court.

—Why it is news — Two national polls released on the same day put different men in front, each by a single point. Both gaps sit inside the margin of error.

—What happened — Quaest published its poll on Monday 21 September 2026 for the newspaper O Globo and the broadcaster TV Globo: Flávio Bolsonaro 42 percent, Lula 41 percent in a runoff.

—The numbers — Quaest heard 2,004 voters in person between 17 and 20 September 2026, with a margin of error of two points. In the first round Lula leads 37 percent to 33 percent.

—What it means for you — Treat any single poll as noise. If you hold Brazilian assets, plan for either outcome rather than for the leader of this week’s survey.

—Still open — BTG Pactual/Nexus, fielded the same weekend, has Lula ahead 46 to 45. Blank and spoiled ballots run at 14 percent, and 3 percent of voters are undecided.

Sources: Quaest national poll for O Globo/TV Globo released 21 September 2026, as reported by Metrópoles, Brasil de Fato and Money Times (TSE registration BR-06004/2026, fieldwork 17–20 September, 2,004 respondents, ±2pp); BTG Pactual/Nexus fifteenth wave via Nexus (fieldwork 18–20 September, 2,006 CATI interviews, ±2pp); UOL poll aggregator, 21 September 2026; Veritá via CNN Brasil (6 September 2026); CNT/MDA and Gerp via Gazeta do Povo, CNN Brasil and Poder360.

More: Brazil election 2026 coverage from The Rio Times.

When Brazilians Actually Vote

Brazil votes in the first round on Sunday 4 October 2026. If no candidate wins more than half the valid votes, the top two meet again on Sunday 25 October. Voters also choose 54 of the 81 senators and all 513 federal deputies that day.

Flávio Bolsonaro is a sitting senator for Rio de Janeiro and runs for the Liberal Party. He entered the race in December 2025, after his father Jair Bolsonaro was ruled out. Lula is seeking a fourth term. Candidates registered with the Superior Electoral Court by 15 August, and campaigning opened the next day.

Why One Point Is Not a Lead

Quaest puts its margin of error at two points, at 95 percent confidence. That margin applies to each candidate’s own number, not to the gap between them. So 42 and 41 could in truth be 44 and 39. It could just as easily be 40 and 43.

Pollsters call this a technical tie. Treat it as a coin toss, not a result. The margin widens as soon as you slice the sample. Figures for women or evangelicals rest on a few hundred interviews, so they swing harder. The margin covers sampling error only. It says nothing about people who refuse to answer or change their minds.

Every Brazilian Poll Carries a Number

Brazil regulates polling more tightly than most countries. Under Article 33 of Law 9.504 of 1997, an institute must file with the Electoral Justice at least five days before it publishes. The filing names who paid and what it cost. It lists the sampling plan, the questionnaire and the interview method.

That file is public, so you can check the wording yourself. Registration is not approval: the court only receives the paperwork. Publishing without a complete filing draws a fine of R$53,205 to R$106,410, roughly US$10,400 to US$20,700. The Quaest release is registered as BR-06004/2026. The BTG Pactual and Nexus poll is BR-00485/2026, filed at a cost of R$164,888.89, about US$32,000.

Two Institutes, Two Methods

The two surveys disagree partly because they were not taken the same way. Quaest sends interviewers to homes with tablets, drawing municipalities, then census tracts, then households. Nexus does not knock on doors. Its 2,006 interviews for BTG Pactual were done by telephone.

Doorstep work reaches poorer and less connected voters more easily. Telephone samples lean the other way and correct with quotas. Neither is wrong. They simply find slightly different Brazils. Quaest’s final 2022 runoff poll had Lula on 52 and Jair Bolsonaro on 48. The count came in at 50.9 to 49.1.

What Else the Same Survey Found

The runoff figure was not the only number Quaest put out on 21 September. Half of those asked disapprove of the Lula government, against 44 percent who approve, up from 43 percent a week earlier. Rejection runs high on both sides. Some 55 percent would never vote for Lula, and 56 percent say the same of Flávio.

The segments moved in opposite directions. Among women, Lula rose from 41 to 44 while Flávio slipped from 38 to 37. His lead there widened from three points to seven. Among evangelicals, Flávio jumped from 51 to 58 while Lula held at 28. Voters earning more than five minimum wages broke for Flávio, 53 to 33. Bolsa Família recipients stayed with Lula, 56 to 30.

How the Race Got Here

The drift has been slow and steady. In mid-August Quaest had Lula ahead 43 to 40. By early September it was 42 to 41. On 14 September Flávio led 42 to 40, his first time in front. The latest wave leaves him one point up.

The slide tracks the government’s standing. Quaest recorded approval falling from 48 percent in July to 43 percent in September, while disapproval climbed from 47 to 50. No single move in that sequence sits outside the margin of error. It is the repetition, week after week, that the campaigns are reading.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error

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