Brazil: 46% More Worried About Election Outcome Than in 2022
BRAZIL · ELECTION
Key Facts
—What happened: Datafolha poll finds 46% more worried about the election outcome than in 2022.
—How big it is: 57% say they are more determined to vote than in 2022.
—What it means: Worry is split by candidate: 63% of Flavio Bolsonaro’s voters are more worried, versus 30% of Lula’s.
—The catch: 32% are less willing to campaign than in 2022, against 18% more willing.
—Who it hits: President Lula, who leads the first round by five points, and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro.
—What comes next: The first round is on October 4, with a likely runoff on October 25.
Nearly half of Brazilian voters say they are more worried about the outcome of next month’s presidential election than they were in 2022. The Datafolha survey, published on 5 September 2026, also finds 57% more determined to vote.
What the poll found
Datafolha’s survey shows 46% of Brazilians are more worried about the election result than in 2022. Another 28% feel the same, 24% are less worried, and 2% gave no answer.
The poll also found 57% are more determined to vote than in 2022. That compares with 32% who feel the same, 11% who are less determined, and 1% who gave no answer.
Worry splits by political camp. Datafolha found 63% of Flavio Bolsonaro’s voters are more worried than in 2022, while only 30% of Lula’s supporters say the same.
The same survey asked about willingness to campaign for a candidate. Only 18% said they are more willing than in 2022, while 32% said they are less willing.
How it was done
Datafolha interviewed 2,002 voters aged 16 and over in 125 municipalities on 1 and 2 September 2026. The margin of error is two percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence level.
The survey was commissioned by Folha de S.Paulo and Globo. It is registered with Brazil’s electoral court as BR-03669/2026.
For sub-groups such as a single candidate’s voters, the margin of error is four points. This matters for the partisan split, where 63% of Flavio Bolsonaro’s voters are more worried versus 30% of Lula’s.
The same survey, two releases
Folha de S.Paulo released the attitude questions on 5 September 2026. The voting-intention numbers came out on 3 September 2026.
Both sets of figures come from one survey. Datafolha interviewed 2,002 voters in 125 cities on 1 and 2 September.
The poll is registered with Brazil’s electoral court as BR-03669/2026. Folha and Globo commissioned the research.
This is not a separate attitudinal poll. It is one set of interviews, with different results released on different days.
The finding that cuts the other way
Datafolha also asked about campaigning for a candidate. Only 18% said they are more willing than in 2022.
Another 45% feel the same, and 32% are less willing. Five percent gave no answer.
That cuts against the idea that voters are anxious but engaged. Declared intent to turn out is up.
But willingness to take part in the campaign is down. The poll shows 57% are more decided to vote.
Yet 32% are less willing to campaign, per Datafolha. That gap suggests a passive electorate.
Worry splits by camp
Worry splits sharply by political camp. Datafolha found 63% of Flavio Bolsonaro’s voters are more worried than in 2022.
Only 30% of Lula’s supporters say the same. The gap mirrors a tense race.
The same survey put Lula at 38% and Flavio Bolsonaro at 33% in the first round. That five-point gap is outside the margin of error.
A runoff is closer, at 46% to 44%. That gap is within the margin of error – a technical tie.
The voting-intention numbers
Datafolha put President Lula at 38% in the first round. Senator Flavio Bolsonaro got 33%, and Augusto Cury 8%.
The five-point gap is outside the poll’s two-point margin of error. So Lula’s lead is real, not a tie.
In a runoff, Lula has 46% and Flavio Bolsonaro 44%. That two-point gap is within the margin of error – a technical tie.
Who Lula is
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has been in office since 2023. He is running for re-election with Vice President Geraldo Alckmin.
Lula governed Brazil from 2003 to 2010. He helped found the Workers’ Party in 1980.
He returned to power in 2023 after defeating Jair Bolsonaro. The party confirmed his candidacy in August 2026.
Who Flavio Bolsonaro is
Flavio Bolsonaro is a senator for Rio de Janeiro, in office since 2019. He is running for the Liberal Party with Alfredo Gaspar as his running mate.
He is the candidate because his father is ineligible. Former President Jair Bolsonaro is imprisoned over the attempted coup.
Where each candidate is strongest
Earlier Datafolha releases from August 2026 show clear patterns. Lula leads among women and poorer voters.
Flavio Bolsonaro leads among evangelical voters. These findings come from separate Datafolha releases, not the September survey.
The same August releases found 30% of voters back a candidate mainly to stop another winning. That anti-vote dynamic may shape the race.
These patterns help explain the tight runoff. Lula’s strength with women and the poor offsets Flavio Bolsonaro’s edge with evangelicals.
How to read a poll like this
A margin of error means the true number likely sits within that range. A five-point gap is outside a two-point margin, so it is a real lead.
A two-point gap is inside that margin, so it is a technical tie. Brazilian institutes must register polls with the electoral court before publishing, to keep the process transparent.
What to watch next
The first round is set for October 4. If no candidate tops 50% of valid votes, the top two face a runoff on October 25.
Datafolha will release more surveys in coming weeks. Each new poll’s margin of error and sample size matter for judging reliability.
Datafolha’s latest poll had a two-point margin of error. It surveyed 2,002 voters in 125 cities on September 1 and 2.
The poll is registered with Brazil’s electoral court as BR-03669/2026. Folha de S.Paulo and Globo commissioned the research.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Datafolha?
Datafolha is a Brazilian polling firm linked to the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo. It conducts regular surveys on politics and social issues.
How many people were interviewed for this poll?
Datafolha interviewed 2,002 voters aged 16 and over in 125 cities. The interviews were conducted face-to-face on 1 and 2 September 2026.
What is the margin of error?
The margin of error is two percentage points either way, at a 95 percent confidence level. For sub-groups such as a single candidate’s voters, it is four points.
When was the poll conducted and published?
Fieldwork was on 1 and 2 September 2026. Folha de S.Paulo published the results on 5 September 2026, and the poll is registered as BR-03669/2026.
Does this poll predict the election winner?
No. These are the attitude questions from a survey that also measured voting intention. The voting-intention numbers were released separately on 3 September.
Connected Coverage
We have also reported on Datafolha Narrows Brazil’s Race to Five Points, and on Lula’s Fourth-Term Bid Stalls as Flávio Bolsonaro Hits 45% in PoderData Poll.
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