Datafolha Narrows Brazil’s Race to Five Points
Brazil · ELECTIONS 2026
Key Facts
- —What happened Datafolha poll shows Lula 38%, Bolsonaro 33% in first round.
- —How big Runoff is a technical tie: Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 44%.
- —The catch The runoff gap is within the margin of error.
- —Who it hits Lula’s approval fell to 45%, disapproval rose to 51%.
- —What comes next Brazil votes on 4 October 2026.
A new Datafolha poll shows Brazil’s presidential race tightening. Lula leads but his approval is slipping.
Brazil’s presidential race narrows, according to a new Datafolha poll. Lula leads in the first round, but the runoff is a technical tie.
First Round: Lula Leads, But Margin Shrinks
A Datafolha poll released on 3 September 2026 puts Lula on 38 percent in the first round. He runs for the Workers’ Party.
Flávio Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party (PL), has 33%.
Augusto Cury, of the Avante party, has 8%. In August, Lula had 39%, Bolsonaro 33%, and Cury 2%.
Runoff: A Technical Tie
In a simulated second round between Lula and Bolsonaro, Lula has 46% and Bolsonaro 44%. This difference is within the poll’s margin of error, making it a technical tie.
The margin of error for the first-round survey is 2 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The runoff figures come from the same Datafolha polling wave.
Lula’s Approval Falls
The same Datafolha survey shows that 51% of Brazilians disapprove of Lula’s government, while 45% approve. In August, disapproval was 50% and approval 47%.
The overall evaluation of the government also worsened. Now 42% rate it as bad or terrible, up from 41% in August.
Poll Details and Methodology
Datafolha interviewed 2,002 people aged 16 or older between 1 and 3 September 2026. The margin of error is 2 percentage points for the presidential vote survey.
The poll is registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-03669/2026. This registration lets voters check the poll’s methodology.
Voter Decisiveness
A related Datafolha survey found that 71% of voters are totally decided on their presidential choice. Another 28% say their vote may change.
This survey interviewed 2,002 people between 1 and 2 September 2026. The margin of error for these proportions is 4 percentage points for most candidates.
Context of the Race
Brazil’s presidential election is scheduled for 4 October 2026. The race is between Lula, who seeks re-election, and Flávio Bolsonaro, a congressman and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
The poll was conducted by Datafolha, a major Brazilian polling institute. It was reported by G1, the news portal of Globo.
What the Numbers Mean
The narrowing gap suggests a competitive election. Lula’s lead in the first round is 5 points, down from 6 points in August.
In the runoff, the tie means either candidate could win. The election is still a month away, and many voters remain undecided.
Approval and Re-election
Lula’s approval rating is below the level needed for a comfortable re-election. Historically, presidents with approval above 50% tend to win.
The disapproval rating of 51% is a warning sign for the incumbent. However, the race is not over, and Lula still leads in the first round.
Other Candidates
Augusto Cury, a writer and politician, has risen to 8% in the polls. He was at 2% in August.
Other candidates include Ronaldo Caiado, with 4%, and Renan Santos, with 3%. Zema has 2%.
Polling Accuracy
Datafolha is one of Brazil’s most respected polling firms. Its polls have a margin of error of 2 percentage points for the overall vote.
The poll was conducted face-to-face, which is standard for Brazilian polls. The sample size of 2,002 is typical for national surveys.
Campaign Implications
The technical tie in the runoff suggests that the campaign will be crucial. Both candidates will focus on swing voters.
Lula’s falling approval may be due to economic issues. The poll does not provide reasons for the change.
Next Steps
The next Datafolha poll is expected in October, closer to the election. Voters will go to the polls on 4 October.
If no candidate gets more than 50% in the first round, a runoff will be held on 25 October.
International Attention
Brazil’s election is watched globally due to its economic and environmental importance. The race between Lula and Bolsonaro is seen as a test of democratic stability.
The narrowing gap adds uncertainty to the outcome. Foreign investors will be watching the polls closely.
Conclusion
The Datafolha poll shows a competitive race in Brazil. Lula leads in the first round, but the runoff is a toss-up.
With Lula’s approval falling, the election is far from decided. The campaign will be intense in the coming weeks.
How the Poll Was Conducted
Datafolha interviewed 2,002 people aged 16 or older between 1 and 3 September 2026 for the presidential vote survey. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level.
The approval survey used the same 2,002-person sample, the same dates, and the same 2-point margin of error.
The vote decision survey used 2,002 people interviewed on 1 and 2 September, with a 4-point margin for most candidates.
Previous Poll Comparison
In August 2026, Lula had 39% in the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro had 33%, and Augusto Cury had 2%. By early September, Lula dropped to 38%, Cury rose to 8%, and Flávio stayed at 33%.
Approval of Lula’s government fell from 47% in August to 45% in September, while disapproval rose from 50% to 51%. The share of people rating the government as ‘ruim/péssimo’ increased from 41% to 42%.
Voter Decisiveness Details
The vote decision survey found 71% of voters are totally decided on their presidential choice. 28% say their vote may change.
For Augusto Cury’s voters, the margin of error is 8 points due to a smaller subsample.
Most voters have decided. A significant minority could still shift, affecting the final outcome.
Exact Quote from G1
G1 reported: ‘Datafolha, 1º turno: Lula, 38%; Flávio Bolsonaro, 33%; Cury, 8%; Caiado, 4%; Renan, 3%; Zema, 2%.’ This quote is from an article published on 2 September 2026.
Another quote from G1 states: ‘Datafolha, 2º turno: Lula tem 46%, contra 44% de Flávio Bolsonaro.’ These quotes provide exact numbers for the race.
What These Numbers Mean
In everyday terms, if the election were held now, Lula would likely win the first round but not by a large margin. The runoff would be very close, with Lula slightly ahead.
Approval ratings show that more than half of Brazilians disapprove of Lula’s government, which could influence undecided voters. The poll’s margin of error means the true numbers could be 2 points higher or lower for each candidate.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the margin of error in the Datafolha poll?
The margin of error is 2 percentage points for the first-round vote. This means the true numbers could be 2 points higher or lower.
When will Brazil hold its presidential election?
Brazil votes on 4 October 2026. If no candidate wins more than 50% in the first round, a runoff will be held on 25 October.
Who are the main candidates in the 2026 race?
The main candidates are Lula, of the Workers’ Party, and Flávio Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party. Augusto Cury is a third candidate with 8% support.
How is a technical tie defined in this poll?
A technical tie occurs when the difference between candidates is within the margin of error. In the runoff, Lula’s 46% and Bolsonaro’s 44% are within 2 points, so it is a tie.
Connected Coverage
Sources: G1; Valor Econômico; O Globo.
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