Brazil: Politics
Key Facts
—Who. Prosecutor-General Paulo Gonet, Brazil’s chief federal prosecutor, opposes ex-president Jair Bolsonaro’s second request to review his coup conviction.
—What. Gonet says the Supreme Federal Court should not hear it; the sentence is 27 years and 3 months.
—When. Gonet’s opinion reached Justice Kassio Nunes Marques on Thursday 12 November 2026.
—Next. Justice Kassio Nunes Marques, the justice assigned to steer the case, decides whether to hear it and suspend the sentence.
—Prediction markets. Polymarket, a market where users trade real-money bets, prices Bolsonaro’s full release from custody, house arrest included, by 31 March 2027 at 21% (14 November, 1:18 a.m. ET).
—Power Index. Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 74.2 points (November 2026 edition).
Brazil’s top prosecutor wants the Supreme Federal Court to refuse a second request to undo former president Jair Bolsonaro’s coup sentence. A single justice now decides whether the review is heard and whether the sentence is suspended.
Brazil’s prosecutor-general, Paulo Gonet, told the Supreme Federal Court (STF) on Thursday 12 November 2026 that it should not even hear Jair Bolsonaro’s second request for a criminal review of his coup conviction, CNN Brasil, a Brazilian news channel, and Gazeta do Povo, a Brazilian newspaper, reported that day. A criminal review is an exceptional request to reopen a case that has already been decided.
Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years and 3 months for attempting a coup, and Gazeta do Povo reports that he serves it under house arrest. The prosecutor-general is the government’s chief criminal prosecutor, not a judge, and his opinion does not bind the court.
What the Prosecutor Argues
Gonet argued that the review should not be admitted at all, Gazeta do Povo reported on 12 November. He said the defence’s new technical report on how digital evidence was handled adds nothing new, and that the material had been available since May 2025.
The conviction would still stand on other evidence, Gazeta do Povo quoted him as saying, including testimony from General Marco Antônio Freire Gomes, who testified at the trial, and entry and exit records from the presidential palace. A first request filed in May also drew a negative opinion from his office, CNN Brasil reported.
What the Defence Argues
Bolsonaro’s lawyers say the chain of custody, meaning the documented handling, of about 70 terabytes of digital evidence was broken and that the full court, not the First Panel, a five-justice chamber of the court, should have tried him, Gazeta do Povo reported on 28 October. They also say the defence had too little time and access, and they have asked Justice Nunes Marques to suspend the sentence while the review is pending.
What Happens Next
Justice Kassio Nunes Marques, the justice assigned to steer the case, must now decide whether the review can be heard and whether to grant the suspension, Gazeta do Povo reported. CNN Brasil reported that he intends to take the review to the full court, where Edson Fachin, the court’s president, would set the date, but no judgment date has been published.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market, lists the question “Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?” and, as of 14 November, 1:18 a.m. ET, trades “Yes” at 21% with US$19,778 traded in total. The market resolves “Yes” only if he is lawfully released from all custodial measures, so continued house arrest does not count.
A court order suspending the sentence could count if it ends all custody, so the price reflects far more than this one review.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
Nothing changes in practice yet: the conviction stands, and the next signal is a decision by one justice, likely followed by a full-court vote. Readers following Brazil’s politics can see how the case began in our earlier report on the justice who holds the review and our Latin America Power Index.
What is not known is when the court will decide, which panel or full court will judge the review, and whether the suspension will be granted. CNN Brasil says Bolsonaro’s first request is still pending, while Gazeta do Povo says the defence withdrew it.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a criminal review in Brazil?
It is an exceptional request to reopen a case that has already been decided. The prosecutor-general says it cannot serve as a new appeal, according to Gazeta do Povo.
What did the prosecutor-general ask the court to do?
Paulo Gonet asked the Supreme Federal Court on 12 November 2026 not to hear the review. CNN Brasil and Gazeta do Povo both reported it.
Is Bolsonaro’s sentence suspended?
No ruling on suspension has been reported. Justice Kassio Nunes Marques must decide whether to hear the review and whether to suspend the sentence meanwhile.
Sources
Gazeta do Povo, 12 November 2026 · CNN Brasil, 12 November 2026 · Gazeta do Povo, 28 October 2026 · Polymarket market page, 14 November, 1:18 a.m. ET
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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