Argentine Stocks Fall for Second Consecutive Day as MERVAL Slides 1.12% Over Two Sessions Despite Financing Milestone

The S&P MERVAL Index closed at approximately 2,355,098 points on May 27, representing a 0.66% decline that snapped a two-day winning streak. The benchmark has experienced significant volatility in 2025, declining 16.55% year-to-date after a remarkable 172% surge in 2024.

As of May 29, 2025, the Argentine market shows a market capitalization of AR$92.9 trillion with key valuation metrics including a P/E ratio of 13.8x and price-to-sales ratio of 1.3x. The index has decreased 155,171 points or 6.12% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading data.

Recent Trading Activity

May 27 Performance: The MERVAL declined 15,702 points, erasing gains from the previous session’s 1.06% advance. Market capitalization stood at 92.2 trillion pesos with trading volume reaching 27.1 million shares during the session.

The index currently trades 16.77% below its January 9 record high of 2,829,730 points, reflecting persistent headwinds facing Argentine equities despite initial optimism surrounding economic reforms.

Sector Performance

Significant sector rotation dominated recent trading sessions:

Materials companies led gains with a 9.21% advance in recent sessions, while telecommunications stocks suffered the steepest declines at 7.10%.

Top Individual Stock Performers

Biggest Winners (7-day performance):

• CELU (Celulosa Argentina): AR$289.50, +8,593.7%
• BYMA (Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos): AR$218.50, +10.4%
• ALUA (Aluar Aluminio Argentino): AR$830.00, +9.1%
• CRES (Cresud): AR$1,460.00, +7.4%
• YPFD (YPF Sociedad Anónima): AR$43.60k, +4.0%

Notable Performers:

• Comercial del Plata topped recent gainers with a 2.87% rise to 134.50 pesos
• Ternium Argentina advanced 2.32% to 617 pesos

Economic and Policy Context

Recent Policy Developments: Argentina successfully sold local currency debt to foreign investors for the first time since the Macri era, raising approximately $1 billion.

The five-year peso bonds carry a 29.5% coupon with a two-year put option, offering investors an early exit before the 2027 presidential elections.

Currency and Controls: President Javier Milei lifted capital controls in April 2025 after securing a $20 billion IMF deal, initially prompting a 17% MERVAL surge. However, the peso’s 11% swing against the dollar has unsettled investors, with many switching to dollars for safety.

Economic Growth: Argentina’s economy showed growth of 5.7% in February 2025, with 5.5% growth projected for the year. Inflation fell to 3.73% monthly by March 2025, down from 55.9% annually.

Global Market Context

International markets showed mixed performance on May 28, 2025. Global investors displayed caution amid earnings reports, with U.S. futures showing modest early morning declines following Tuesday’s rally.

International Outperformance: The MSCI World ex-U.S. index (ACWX) has surged over 14% in 2025, significantly outpacing the S&P 500’s slight increase. This marks a rare occurrence of international stocks outperforming U.S. markets by more than three standard deviations over the past 100 days.

Technical Analysis and Trading Volumes

Technical indicators present a mixed picture for the MERVAL. The index currently trades below key resistance levels established during recent rallies, with daily charts showing consolidation around current levels.

Volume patterns suggest institutional participation remains cautious, though not dramatically reduced from recent averages.

ETF Activity

The Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) has seen significant activity, with assets jumping roughly seven-fold from $104 million when Milei took office to approximately $750 million. The fund absorbed record inflows of $144 million for the week ended November 22, 2024.

Corporate Earnings

Banco Macro Results: Banco Macro reported Q1 2025 net income of Ps.45.7 billion, down 59% from Q4 2024. The bank maintained strong solvency with a 34.3% Capital Adequacy Ratio and serves 6.23 million retail customers across Argentina.

Grupo Financiero Galicia: The company reported stable Q1 2025 performance with an 8.9% ROE and 1.7% ROA, though the stock closed down 4.2% following its presentation.

Challenges and Outlook

The market faces several headwinds including U.S. tariffs affecting 6-7% of exports, which have strained dollar reserves and pressured the peso. Steel tariffs of 25% and 10% on other goods have slashed export earnings by $1.5-2.5 billion.

Political uncertainty surrounding the October 2025 midterm elections, which will renew 127 of 257 Chamber of Deputies seats and 24 of 72 Senate seats, continues to create investor caution. The Supreme Court’s rejection of Milei’s judicial appointees has raised concerns about potential agenda delays.

Despite challenges, Argentina’s economy shows promise with projected growth and potential investment in oil and gas prospects like Vaca Muerta. However, peso volatility, trade tensions, and political risks continue to create market uncertainty.