Argentina Country Risk: What Expats Need to Know

ARGENTINA · MARKETS

Updated 12 times · Latest: Sunday 27 September 2026

Argentina country risk below 500 reads as progress. Measured against a month ago it is a step backwards, and Monday produced no reading at all.

Argentina country risk sits at 490 basis points. That is the last published print, from Friday 4 September.

Monday produced no reading. Wall Street was closed for Labor Day, so the index had no price signals to work from.

On the week the direction is down. It was 501 on 1 September and fell below 500 the following day, touching 493 intraday.

On the month the direction is up. It stood at 451 on 7 August, which makes the current level 39 points worse.

Why the Argentina Country Risk Framing Matters

Below 500 has become a psychological marker in Argentine coverage. Crossing it is reported as an achievement.

That is true against last week and false against last month. Both comparisons are accurate and they point in opposite directions.

The index measures what investors demand to hold Argentine sovereign debt over United States Treasuries. J.P. Morgan publishes it as part of its emerging markets bond index.

At 490 points, Argentina still pays nearly five percentage points more than the United States government. That is not a normalised borrower.

What Is Pulling It Down

The fiscal side is the government’s strongest card. Zero-deficit targets have held and the central bank has been buying dollars.

Reserves have moved above 50 billion dollars. Argentina also recorded its first external surplus since 2019.

Monthly inflation has been consolidating near 1.7 percent rather than the 2 percent that had looked like a floor. Peso rates have been falling and the exchange rate has been steady.

Oil near 97 dollars a barrel helps an economy with a growing energy export balance. A Citi note argued the market was exaggerating political risk.

What Is Pushing It Up

The election calendar is the domestic drag. The proximity of the presidential vote adds constraints that markets price whether or not anything happens.

Central bank dollar purchases have slowed and agricultural liquidations have thinned. Both reduce the flow that has been supporting the peso.

The external picture is heavier. US Treasury yields between 4.55 and 5.27 percent are the highest since October 2023, which pressures every emerging market asset.

American payrolls came in at 162,000 against 55,000 expected. Strong US data raises the return on the safest alternative to Argentine debt.

A Note on the Numbers You Will See

Automatically generated indicator pages have been publishing figures far outside the mainstream range. One showed 850 points for 1 September.

That is inconsistent with every established outlet and is simply wrong. The series used here comes from Infobae’s daily market reporting on the J.P. Morgan index.

There is also no figure for 8 September itself. Anyone quoting one today is quoting Friday’s.

What to Watch

The first marker is Tuesday’s reopening. Two sessions without a print leaves the index stale.

The second is whether 490 holds through the campaign. The August level of 451 shows how quickly it moves.

The third is the US yield curve. Argentina’s spread narrows when Treasuries fall, regardless of anything decided in Buenos Aires.

Earlier updates

Argentina’s country risk has dropped to 485 basis points (from 491), and the official peso has eased to 1,480 / 1,530 with the blue at 1,525 / 1,545. The tarjeta rate is 1,924 / 1,989.

A US$1,000 card spend now bills at roughly ARS 1.99 million. The analysis below, written when the print was 490, remains for context.

Country risk rose to 490 basis points from 485 on Friday. The blue dollar moved up to 1,535 / 1,555; the MEP trades at 1,530.1 / 1,536.7 and the CCL at 1,595.5 / 1,597.5.

The card (tarjeta) rate is unchanged at 1,924 / 1,989.

Country risk jumped 16 points to 506 (from 490) as US Treasury yields pressured emerging-market bonds; dollar bonds fell as much as 0.88 percent. The blue rose to 1,540 / 1,560; MEP 1,530.7 / 1,533.2; CCL 1,593.3 / 1,594.6; wholesale 1,506.5, about 1.5 percent below the official sell rate.

The IMF staff mission arrives 21 September.

Country risk rose to 510 (from 506) ahead of today’s data double: INDEC publishes second-quarter GDP and unemployment at 16:00 Buenos Aires time. The wholesale peso closed at 1,513.50, one peso below its 52-week ceiling of 1,514.

The blue dollar holds at 1,540 / 1,560; the oficial is 1,485 / 1,535. The IMF staff mission arrives Monday 21 September.

INDEC published Thursday’s data double: second-quarter GDP fell 0.6 percent quarter on quarter — the first contraction since 2024 — and unemployment rose to 7.9 percent. Country risk closed at 515, up from 510.

The blue dollar eased to 1,535 / 1,555 and the wholesale peso backed off its 1,514 ceiling to 1,501 / 1,510. The IMF staff mission arrives Monday 21 September.

Country risk closed Friday at 524, up from 515, and the blue dollar eased to 1,530 / 1,550, while the wholesale peso firmed to 1,505.5 / 1,514.5. INDEC reported an August trade surplus of US$2.19 billion on Friday (exports US$8.88 billion, imports US$6.7 billion), and the Senate converted the Inocencia Fiscal II bill into law 44–23.

The IMF staff mission arrives Monday 21 September.

Country risk closed the week at 524, up from 485 a week earlier after five straight daily rises, and the Merval lost 2.5 percent on the week. The blue dollar stands at 1,530 / 1,550 after Friday’s close.

The IMF staff mission arrives Monday 21 September, and a debt payment of about US$800 million falls due on Friday 25 September.

The IMF staff mission arrives in Buenos Aires today for the third review of the US$20 billion program agreed in April 2025. Central-bank data show household loan delinquency at 12.9 percent in July, the highest since 2004 and up from 5.6 percent a year earlier.

The blue dollar starts the week unchanged at 1,530 / 1,550, and a US$803 million payment to the IMF falls due on Friday 25 September. July EMAE and first-half poverty data publish on Thursday.

The IMF staff mission continues in Buenos Aires for a second day, and President Milei — in New York for the UN General Assembly — is due to meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio today ahead of his speech tomorrow. Country risk opened the week at 533 basis points, up from 524 on Friday, and the blue dollar starts unchanged at 1,530 / 1,550 (US$100 buys ARS 153,000).

A US$803 million payment to the IMF falls due on Friday 25 September.

Country risk rose for a seventh straight session to 555 basis points on Tuesday — the highest in more than four months — as the IMF mission works through its third day in Buenos Aires without a statement. President Milei addresses the UN General Assembly today at noon Buenos Aires time (15:00 UTC).

The blue dollar starts at 1,535 / 1,555 (US$100 buys ARS 153,500). A US$803 million payment to the IMF falls due on Friday 25 September.

Country risk rose for an eighth straight session to 566 basis points on Wednesday, even as the US State Department announced it would set aside up to US$7 billion through 2027 for Argentina, largely for energy — no loan contracts were signed, and the department said no signing was imminent. President Milei met Secretary of State Rubio in New York with Economy Minister Caputo present.

The blue dollar starts at 1,540 / 1,560 (US$100 buys ARS 154,000). A US$803 million payment to the IMF falls due tomorrow, Friday 25 September.

Country risk rose for a tenth straight session on Friday’s print, to 609 basis points — up from 578 on Thursday and 490 on 7 September. The peso stayed calm: the blue dollar holds at 1,540 / 1,560 (US$100 buys ARS 154,000).

The Senate passed its central-bank reform 46–22 on 24 September; the government is weighing accepting the Senate’s text, and ministers decide at a political meeting on Tuesday 29 September. See our daily guide for Sunday 27 September.

More: Argentina news in English, every day from The Rio Times.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Argentina’s country risk right now?

609 basis points, the print of Friday 25 September, a tenth straight daily rise. No reading was published on Monday 7 September because Wall Street was closed for Labor Day.

Is it improving?

It depends on the comparison. It is down from 501 a week earlier, but up from 451 a month earlier. The easing story holds on a one-week view and reverses on a one-month view.

Who calculates it?

J.P. Morgan, as the EMBI spread of Argentine sovereign bonds over US Treasuries. At 490 points Argentina pays nearly five percentage points more than the United States government to borrow.

When is Argentina’s next IMF payment due?

A US$803 million payment to the IMF falls due on Friday 25 September 2026.

Sources: J.P. Morgan EMBI, Infobae, Rio Times.